I'll do the games in order by my own rankings, because why not? It'll be a CRAZY ADVENTURE. Oh, and for the record, how my confidence ratings tend to go:
5: No doubt in my mind who's going to win.
4: Miniscule chance of an upset.
3: Fairly confident that my pick will wind up winning, say in the 70-80% range.
2: Solid confidence - close, but enough where I think my pick will probably win.
1: Pretty much a total toss-up.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Appalachian State @ #5 Michigan
Appalachian State's going for its third straight I-AA title, so this is a team capable of knocking off some lower-tier BCS teams. Michigan, not so much.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#91 East Carolina @ #10 Virginia Tech
Wow, the Hokies actually open up against a I-A opponent. ECU's a decent team, but without their quarterback, so Virginia Tech will probably heal the nation by returning some interceptions for touchdowns or something.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 4
#118 Florida International @ #11 Penn State
Yeah, this won't be pretty. With the coaching change at FIU, there's probably less of a chance that a brawl will break out and Joe Paterno will have to get involved. Sadly.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
Youngstown State @ #14 Ohio State
In lieu of talking about what may be a 70-0 blowout, I'll just say that the Youngstown State penguin mascot is ADORABLE.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
#93 Marshall @ #19 Miami
Marshall's a decent enough team where the Miami offense could continue their troubles. But even so, Marshall has no running game and Miami's defense is so stout that I'd be shocked if they did much of anything.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
Northeastern @ #55 Northwestern
I'm admittedly not very knowledgeable on my I-AA stuff, but Northeastern seems to typically be a pretty good team, enough so to put up a fight here. Northwestern lost to UNH last year, but they're much improved, so I still give them the win, even if it might be closer than they'd like.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 3
#66 Colorado State @ #65 Colorado
As my rankings dictate, this is a close one. Colorado'll probably wind up being the better team in the end, but the Buffaloes are breaking in lots of freshmen. CSU's a much more veteran team, so this early in the year, they have a fairly solid edge.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 2
#119 UAB @ #69 Michigan State
For once, Michigan State will not be the team on the field that just has no idea what the hell they're doing.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 5
12:30 PM
Western Kentucky @ #16 Florida
Last year against Western Carolina, Tim Tebow proved himself to be an excellent I-AA quarterback. Here, he should prove himself to be an excellent I-A reclassification quarterback.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
2:00 PM
#38 Virginia @ #80 Wyoming
Wyoming's a dangerous team with some talented players, but Virginia returns almost everyone for what should be a big year. I expect this one to be close early, but the Cavs slowly pull away.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 3
#73 Connecticut @ #100 Duke
Uh oh. Upset alert upset alert upset alert. Connecticut's clearly the better team, but Duke is hungry enough and has enough (such as last year's entire starting offense) to make this scary. Still, the UConn defense is looking for a rebound year, and even if new Huskies QB Tyler Lorenzen struggles, RB Donald Brown should be able to have a good game against the Duke D. But I've had a bad feeling about this game ever since I realized it was at Duke...
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
South Carolina State @ #103 Air Force
Whenever a team goes from the wishbone to a passing attack, the transition is usually rough enough where they could wind up being upset by a I-AA. Still, most of those teams haven't been as talented as this Falcons squad, so I'll give them a fairly sizeable edge.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#63 Western Michigan @ #3 West Virginia
Western Michigan is probably the best team in the MAC. If they get badges saying as much, maybe they can deflect the sun and shine it into Pat White's eyes! Sorry, I'm just trying to think of any possible winning strategy for the Broncos here.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 5
#58 Washington State @ #15 Wisconsin
Wazzou's underrated, and Wisconsin's overrated, but this seems like a pretty easy win for the Badgers. UW should be able to run at will, and I'm not sure WSU's passing attack can do much against that set of corners.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3
#57 Houston @ #17 Oregon
Houston's a good mid-major team, but they're breaking in a new QB and visiting an underrated Oregon team that has both something to prove and the ability to prove it. Uh oh.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 4
#21 Missouri @ #35 Illinois
Ooh, an interesting one. Missouri's returning talent is very weighted towards offense, and Illinois has enough talent on both sides of the ball to gum up the works for the Tigers. Still, even if Illinois gets a lead, with a Ron Zook-led team, I'll believe it when I see it in regards to them holding it. Thus...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
#88 Nevada @ #23 Nebraska
Could be a fun little shootout. Well, not really, since Nebraska has the players on defense to prevent the Wolf Pack from doing much.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 5
#28 UCLA @ #77 Stanford
The talent gap is quite large here, but I just get a feeling from this game. UCLA coach Karl Dorrell's teams tend to disappoint, and Harbaugh could manage to coach these guys up. The Bruins have the talent to put Stanford away early and stomp on their corpse often, but I wouldn't be shocked if they became the first (general consensus) top 25 team to fall here.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 2
#33 Georgia Tech @ #46 Notre Dame
This is interesting. UND's secondary is the most veteran part of their defense, but they were vulnerable enough last year I could see them getting torched by what's still a good GT passing attack. But then again, they had Calvin Johnson last year, and the Yellow Jackets coaching staff didn't think to throw to him. Still, on the other side of the equation, I don't see NDQBTBNL or the Irish offense in general being able to do much against the Georgia Tech defense, so the Yellow Jackets should win what could be an ugly game.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
#36 Iowa @ #96 Northern Illinois
NIU's pretty much always a good enough team to be a decent threat, but even though they may dig up another 1000-yard rusher, without Garrett Wolfe, I pretty much doubt much happening here.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 4
#60 Wake Forest @ #49 Boston College
Wake could pull the upset here, since BC's in the midst of their coaching transition. Still, BC has way more talent, and the homefield advantage is a pretty solid deciding factor.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
#74 Mississippi @ #86 Memphis
Mississippi has all that shiny talent, but I'm not all that convinced they know what to do with it. Memphis returns a lot, and this should be close like last year's game. I'll give the edge to experience and homefield.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
#109 Middle Tennessee State @ #107 Florida Atlantic
HOT SUN BELT ACTION! FAU is the much more veteran team, although MTSU has some talent of their own. With the Sun Belt parity, who knows, but since I think FAU's the better team and they have homefield, they get the edge.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
#48 Arizona @ #43 Brigham Young
SHOOTOUT! BYU's OC came over from Texas Tech, and so does new Arizona OC Sonny Dykes. And both teams actually have defenses, too. Arizona has more returning talent, and actually, probably more talent on offense in general, but since they're just breaking in the system, BYU should be able to put up more points.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
#94 Baylor @ #27 TCU
Last year, Baylor was a much more veteran team, and I thought they had a shot at upsetting TCU. I was somewhat right, since the Horned Frogs looked mediocre in a 17-7 win. The gap's widened considerably in 12 months, and Baylor best-case scenario is now, what, putting up 10 points?
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
#83 Central Florida @ #40 NC State
While I'm usually wary of teams changing coaches being vulnerable, I think Tom O'Brien was a huge step up at NCSU. UCF's a decent team, and this could be one of those games where the mid-major hangs in there early, but I think NC State's talent, especially in the running game, should carry them here.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 3
#105 Eastern Michigan @ #53 Pittsburgh
The Wannstache got upset by a MAC team last year, but that one was actually good. Oh, I shouldn't be so harsh, EMU is passable, but, c'mon, still lower-tier.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Eastern Kentucky @ #54 Kentucky
I'm not sure who has the worse defense.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
Villanova @ #61 Maryland
Well, the one thing Maryland proved last year is that they could beat I-AA teams, so...
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 5
James Madison @ #81 North Carolina
Once again I'll give a disclaimer about my lack of I-AA knowledge, but if I remember correctly, JMU's typically pretty bad. UNC may be vulnerable due to their complete lack of experience, but even if I'm wrong on JMU, the Heels should be able to win this one solidly.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 4
6:45 PM
#30 Oklahoma State @ #18 Georgia
Georgia has talent over experience on defense, and OSU has that explosive offense. But really, the difference is the matchup on the other side of things, since OK State has an experienced enough secondary that I'm not sure Matt Stafford will be able to do much. Georgia should live up to that top-20 ranking by the end of the season, especially as the defense comes together, but this is a pretty bad matchup for them this early.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#115 North Texas @ #4 Oklahoma
If Todd Dodge's first year as UNT coach results in more wins than expected, this will not be one of them.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
#104 Arkansas State @ #6 Texas
If Steve Roberts's sixth year as ASU coach results in more wins than expected, this will not be one of them.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
#111 Louisiana-Lafayette @ #8 South Carolina
If Rickey Bustle's sixth year as ULL coach results in more wins than expected, this will not be one of them.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
Montana State @ #13 Texas A&M
If...whoops, sorry about that. Montana State is a bit of a Big 12-killer, scaring OK State in 2005 and beating Colorado last year, but this is a much higher-caliber opponent, and that streak should come to an end.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 5
#72 Troy @ #32 Arkansas
If Arkansas had a mere mortal at running back, I could easily see this being an upset with Troy's strong defense and Arkansas's horrible QB play. Last year, McFadden was able to take the team on his back and beat some pretty good SEC teams; this year, he'll probably only be able to do that against teams like Troy and, say, Kentucky. But hey, he'll damn well try!
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
#39 Purdue @ #84 Toledo
Toledo should have a rebound year, and would have a good chance at the upset if Purdue was returning nobody on defense, but, well, no dice. Still could happen, but probably not.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Tennessee-Martin @ #41 Southern Miss
Southern Miss is, in fact, a better team than Tennessee-Martin.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 5
Richmond @ #50 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has a good team by their standards, so this shouldn't be a concern.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 4
#71 Central Michigan @ #52 Kansas
A close one. Both teams' weaknesses are along the lines, so it's not as if there's some inexperienced area where one team can exploit the other. CMU has more in flux with their coaching change, and I'm not sure how CMU QB Dan LeFevour will do against a very good KU secondary, so I'll give the Jayhawks a slight edge.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 1
Gardner-Webb @ #95 Ohio
One or two MAC teams usually wind up being upset by a I-AA, but I think Ohio has enough talent on hand to not be the one. Or two.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
#117 Army @ #99 Akron
Akron's no great shakes, as this year they're the level of team that COULD get upset by a I-AA, but, well, Army's really bad. I suppose I have to give them a shot, since I just said Akron could get upset by a I-AA, but really, it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 4
Central Arkansas @ #116 Louisiana Tech
If this was a good I-AA team, watch out, but (again with the disclaimer I could very well be wrong), I'm not sure if UCA is even a I-AA team yet. I think they might be reclassifying. LT better win this one though, or they'll be hard-pressed for another.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 4
7:05 PM
Elon @ #20 South Florida
If USF manages to pull off the win here, I think they might finally get their deserved respect as a top-25 team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
7:07 PM
Western Carolina @ #12 Alabama
WCU continues their whirlwind tour of pain at the hands of the SEC. The start time's about the only intriguing thing here. And whether Nick Saban decides halfway through the game to coach somewhere else.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
7:45 PM
#44 Kansas State @ #37 Auburn
Ehhh I won't pull the trigger on this one. I don't think KSU QB Josh Freeman is quite there YET, and while the Auburn OL is vulnerable, I'm not especially sold on the KSU linebackers early (although the defensive line is fine.) DE Ian Campbell may have a good day for KSU, but I think Auburn scrapes one out.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#29 Tennessee @ #31 California
Last year, Tennessee torched the Cal secondary at home. While that secondary is where most of Cal's returning experience is on D, it WAS pretty bad last year, so who knows how good they'll really be. Unfortunately, Tennessee graduated pretty much their entire receiving corps, and have secondary issues of their own, so it's all one delicious conundrum. Cal probably has the best WR corps in the country, so I'll give them the edge, as they're the team that has a better chance to exploit the other's suspect secondary.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 1
Indiana State @ #70 Indiana
Then-interim coach Bill Lynch coached Indiana to a loss against I-AA Southern Illinois last year, so there's a precedent. Indiana should be much better this year, though.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 3
#82 Bowling Green @ #79 Minnesota
That Bowling Green offense should be back, and Minnesota secondary got absolutely bitchslapped in the offseason with star CB Dominic Jones being kicked off the team. One of the big potential upsets of the week.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Nicholls State @ #106 Rice
I have no idea how good Nicholls State is, but eeh oh eeh oh the upset potential alarm is going off, as Rice is kind of a mess. The passing combo of Clement-to-Dillard may save them here, though.
My Picke: Rice
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#75 San Jose State @ #25 Arizona State
SJSU was probably the most surprising breakout season that wasn't due to pure luck, but Arizona State is somewhat of a sleeping giant after last year's disappointing campaign. This is a hell of a secondary for ASU QB Rudy Carpenter to begin his resurgence against, but ASU is traditionally a beast at home and the talent gap is just too great.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#64 New Mexico @ #89 UTEP
All-MWC RB Rodney Ferguson should carve up an inexperienced UTEP front seven, and that's pretty much the difference here. UTEP's also throwing up the "rotating QBs" warning flag.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Sacramento State @ #78 Fresno State
Wow, Fresno really WILL play anyone, anywhere, anytime.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
10:15 PM
#112 Idaho @ #2 USC
The only intrigue is how much this game will hurt USC's strength of schedule if they wind up being one of three undefeated teams.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 5
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Northern Colorado @ #22 Hawaii
YARDAGE!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
MONDAY
4:00 PM
#45 Texas Tech @ #90 SMU
TTU is having a down year, and SMU has an excellent QB in Justin Willis, but the Red Raiders will probably still put up 40 or so points for the win. Still, stranger things have happened, and either way, Willis should have a big day.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#9 Florida State @ #24 Clemson
Oh who the hell knows. FSU clearly has more talent, but the front seven is the comparative weakness of their D and Clemson does have that insane duo of running backs. I'm extremely close to pulling the trigger, since Clemson isn't too far off from last year, but, ARGH! I can't. FSU seems to be more of a coaching transition, while Clemson needs to bring along talent, mainly at QB and the O-Line, so the Noles have the edge.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
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