Writing this intro after the fact. I dicked around with the format, which was a mistake, as this took forever to write. I'm hoping to knock out the rest of the conferences ASAP, so then we can get onto what really matters: my top 25.
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Michigan (#4 overall - AT: #8, LN: #3, SN: #3, SS: #5, ST: #6)
2. Wisconsin (#9 overall - AT: #4, LN: #6, SN: #8, SS: #3, ST: #18)
3. Ohio State (#12t overall - AT: #12, LN: #13, SN: #17, SS: #15, ST: #15)
4. Penn State (#17 overall - AT: #17, LN: #35, SN: #15, SS: #13, ST: #14)
5. Iowa (#32t overall - AT: #33, LN: #27, SN: #34, SS: --, ST: #32)
6. Purdue (#42t overall - AT: #42, LN: #51, SN: #40, SS: --, ST: #35)
7. Illinois (#52 overall - AT: #67, LN: #49, SN: #57, SS: --, ST: #43)
8. Minnesota (#63t overall - AT: #78, LN: #68, SN: #51, SS: --, ST: #74)
9. Michigan State (#67 overall - AT: #74, LN: #59, SN: #71, SS: --, ST: #70)
10. Northwestern (#68t overall - AT: #66, LN: #57, SN: #87, SS: --, ST: #67)
11. Indiana (#72 overall - AT: #60, LN: #76, SN: #74, SS: --, ST: #79)
OVERRATED: Wisconsin. They were overrated last year due to a fairly weak schedule, and while they're a very good team, they're not the #1 team in the Big Ten like some magazines have predicted.
UNDERRATED: Illinois. The Illini projected out to a 6-8 win team last year, and with almost everyone back, they're, at the very least, a top 25 darkhorse. If it wasn't for their head coach...
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Michigan
OFFENSE: The marquee value is here, as for the fourth year in a row, the offense will be spearheaded by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, each in the top few handful of players at their position. Add to that junior WR Mario Manningham, again one of the top few players at his position, and the Wolverines probably have the best triumverate of skill position players in the nation. The offensive line is the relative weakness of this unit, but as usual for Michigan, it still should be quite strong; while two starters depart, All-American left tackle Jake Long returns, and a number of top recruits are ready to fill in those two open slots.
DEFENSE: Here's the interesting part. Through 11 games, last year's Michigan defense, under then-first year coordinator Ron English, was historically good, especially at completely nullifying whatever rushing attack was thrown at them. Even after being gashed by Ohio State and falling apart against USC, the Wolverine D still allowed only a paltry 43 rushing yards/game on the year, and were the #8 scoring defense and #6 yardage defense for the season. But that was last year. The problem this year? Almost everyone's gone. The two defensive stars left are LB Shawn Crable and safety Jamar Adams, and having to replace five of the front seven turns the secondary from a relative weakness into the defense's strength. However, things aren't completely grim; there are players with experience, such as DE Tim Jamison and safety Brandent Englemon, and recruits are at Michigan's usual high talent level, including LB Austin Panter, the first junior college signing in Ann Arbor since 1997. While experience is lacking, talent is still there, and if Ron English is as great a DC as his first season suggested, the defense should still be strong, if not at the historic pace it set last year.
OUTLOOK: I've had some trepidation about putting Michigan atop the Big Ten, but Ohio State last year set the precedent of a team being able to succeed with a strong offense and a talented but young defense. Still, Lloyd Carr having expectations worries me, and the schedule is far from a gimme. Home games against Ohio State, Penn State, and an underrated Oregon team, as well as visits to Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois (yes, Illinois), should all be tests. If the defense comes together quickly, I could see Michigan going undefeated and in fact doing so quite easily; however, there is room for disappointment.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Penn State
OFFENSE: QB Anthony Morelli was a prized recruit coming out of high school, stolen at the last minute from Pittsburgh. After spending two years behind Zack Mills (remember him?) and Michael Robinson, Morelli finally got the chance to start as a junior, and quite frankly, he was kind of shitty. Still, he showed signs of improvement, and this season he should be more of a strength than a liability. RB Austin Scott was essentially the Frank Gore to Tony Hunt's Willis McGahee, as Hunt only got a chance to shine due to Scott's repeated injuries. Scott returns for one last shot, and the job is all his -- barring health problems, this should be a situation where despite losing a star starter, the Penn State running game should see little if any dropoff. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the conference, led by uber-juniors Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. This leaves the main concern, which is the offensive line. The OL loses two starters, including top-5 draft pick Levi Brown, leaving open spots at each of the two tackle positions. While there is some talent to take these spots, they don't seem to be at the level of, to use the team above that also has to replace two starters, a Michigan. While the offensive line could be much worse off, it's still the fairly glaring concern for this offensive unit.
DEFENSE: Up front is the main point of weakness for the Nittany Lions D, as the defensive line returns only one starter, DE Josh Gaines. Still, unlike the offensive line, the open slots along the defensive trenches are ready to be filled by top-tier prospects who have also had some experience as freshmen, such as Maurice Evans and Phillip Taylor. The LB corps should again be among the top few in the country, as top-tier senior Dan Connor moves from OLB to MLB, essentially becoming this year's Paul Posluszny, and talented junior Sean Lee is alongside him, essentially playing this year's Dan Connor. The secondary should be just as strong, as 3 starters return, led by junior CB Justin King, while the open CB slot should be filled by stud sophomore AJ Wallace. All in all, the combination of lots of experience and where that fails, lots of talent, should make this one of the better defenses in the country.
OUTLOOK: Penn State was the rare team that pretty much played like their record, winning and losing when they should've, short of getting lucky vs. Illinois. This may be the team with the least glaring weaknesses in the conference, as the main point of concern is losing two starters on a still fairly experienced offensive line. While Ohio State and Wisconsin are obvious concerns, they get both at home, leaving the 9/22 game at Michigan as the key to the season. And, as two years ago showed, PSU's more than capable of holding their own in the Big House. Last year's mediocre offense and top-15 defense should both improve, and Penn State, much like two years ago, is a darkhorse national title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Ohio State
OFFENSE: I'll start with the obvious, quarterback, where Ohio State loses last year's best player (whose greatness has been unfairly diminished in retrospect) in Troy Smith to someone named Todd Boeckman. No, I don't know either. He's a 23-year old junior who, surprisingly, runs quicker than Troy Smith, so at the very least he should be a fine caretaker QB. In fact, the receiving corps may be a bigger concern, as the Buckeyes lost their top two WRs in Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. The unit should take an obvious step back, but should also be better than one would think, as past returning starter Brian Robiskie there's the high level of young talent you would expect from a program like Ohio State. Plus, Ginn was always fairly overrated anyway. The running game is one thing that should be fairly steady from last year, as Antonio Pittman gives way to last year's frosh sensation, Chris "Beanie" Wells. He's very good! And, as seems to be en vogue in the Big Ten this year, Ohio State is replacing two starters on the offensive line; the talent level of the replacements is below Michigan but ahead of Penn State, so this isn't a glaring concern for OSU.
DEFENSE: Similar to Penn State, there's a lot of returning talent from a top-15 defense. The weakness is the defensive line, where only All-Big Ten 2nd teamer Vernon Gholston returns. There's enough talent on the depth chart to still be very good, but compared to other parts of the defense, this should be the weakness throughout the year. The linebackers, however, should be absolutely fine, as this unit is absolutely loaded. Slightly overrated but still great Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis returns in the middle, and he's flanked by returning starter Marcus Freeman and last year's top-tier JuCo recruit, Larry Grant. Essentially, the Ohio State LB corps is the defensive equivalent of USC's running backs in terms of depth, as the third string is probably better than the starting units for most teams. The secondary should also be a strength, as the Buckeyes return All-Big Ten CB Malcolm Jenkins opposite sophomore Donald Washington, who started 9 games last season, in addition to top-tier strong safety Jamario O'Neal. Free safety may be a weakness, as OSU loses starter Brandon Mitchell, but the unit as a whole should not see much of a dropoff.
OUTLOOK: Although the defense was slightly overrated last year, the team wasn't, and if anything, has been underrated in retrospect after the national championship loss. They were really good, people. Anyway, with almost everyone returning, this year's defense may live up to last year's reputation, and should be more than enough to carry the offense through any growing pains. OSU also lucks out with the schedule, as a game at Purdue is the only even marginal test in the first eight, so the offense should be humming by the final four of @ Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs., Illinois, and of course, @ Michigan. The Buckeyes should lose at least one of those two road games, but really, given the talent, the layout of the schedule, and the fact that, hey, Jim Tressel is a very good coach, it honestly wouldn't be a shock if Ohio State somehow found its way back in the title game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
4. Wisconsin
OFFENSE: The good news is that nine of eleven starters return. The bad news is the two who leave: three-year starting QB John Stocco and all-galaxy left tackle Joe Thomas. Still, the situation isn't completely dire; the QB depth chart is led by experienced senior Tyler Donovan and Kansas State transfer Allen Evridge, while stud sophomore Jake Bscherer looks to be the replacement for Thomas. As for the guys who return, they're led by last year's freshman AA running back PJ Hill, and 2nd team Big Ten TE Travis Beckum. All in all, the Wisconsin offense returns an experienced upperclassman (or PJ Hill) pretty much everywhere, but perhaps more importantly, they've also built talented depth, including stud recruits such as RB John Clay and OL Josh Oglesby.
DEFENSE: The defense was Wisconsin's strength last year as they had kind of a mini-Michigan thing going on, and after Michigan's late-season struggles, Wisconsin actually only finished behind Virginia Tech and LSU in yards allowed per game. While the defense doesn't have as much returning as the offense, this is still an experienced unit. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, and the fourth slot should be filled by part-time starting DE Kurt Ware. The linebacking corps also has one open slot, but rather than a senior, the MLB slot should be filled by talented sophomore Elijah Hodge, brother of Virginia standout and current Green Bay Packer Abdul. The secondary is the weakness of the D; while the Badgers return both starting CBs, including all-Big Ten Jack Ikegwuonu, neither of the new safeties is an upperclassmen nor an especially highly touted recruit.
OUTLOOK: Last year, Wisconsin did in fact play like a double-digit win team, but one thing always nagged at me: who'd they really play? They missed Ohio State, and Michigan pretty much stomped them for their one loss of the year. After that, the best team they faced was either a solid but unspectacular Penn State team, or the quite overrated Arkansas Razorbacks in the Capital One Bowl. Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly as far as overrated teams go; they weren't a team like Maryland who had a number of lucky wins (the Badgers' only real break was vs. Illinois), but rather had an inflated record simply due to a pretty weak schedule. Now, the Badgers do in fact have a lot of returning talent; still, I think this is more of a top-15 level team than the Big Ten championship favorite that some magazines have touted them as. They should have more than enough to beat, say, Iowa at home, fairly convincingly, but in games at Penn State or Ohio State, I wouldn't classify them as a heavy favorite, if even a favorite at all. Again, they should be an upper-echelon team, but the talent level has me thinking more "Big Ten title contender" rather than "national title contender."
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Illinois
OFFENSE: Might as well start with the QB, especially when he has one of the best names in the NCAA. Juice Williams was a stud recruit and started 9 games last year as a true freshman, even if he only threw for 1489 yards, a 9/9 TD/INT ratio, and an..interesting 39.5% completion rate. Still, with Williams's own talent, as well as how improved the offense should be in general, Juice should at least be respectable this coming year. Both starters at running back from last season, Pierre Thomas and EB Halsey, are now gone; however, the running game should at least hold steady, as new starter Rashard Mendenhall was the #2 rusher last season, and actually had comparable stats to Thomas. The receiving corps tells a similar tale; while the Illini lose some starters here, they gain quite possibly the top incoming HS recruit in Arrelious Benn, who should be an instant star. While the offensive line was mediocre at best last year, four upperclassmen starters return, so the unit should at least be passable, and allow Williams to improve.
DEFENSE: When you look at last year's statistics, few defenses were as unlucky as Illinois, who allowed a perfectly above-average 310.2 yards per game, but allowed a decidedly below-average 26.8 points a game. Combine that with, much like the offense, tons of returning talent, and this side of the ball should also be much improved for the Illini. In fact, the only real losses on the defense are DT Josh Norris and CB Alan Ball; the former slot could be filled by a number of talented upperclassmen or yet another top recruit, D'Angelo McCray, while Ball should be replaced by soph Travon Bellamy, who has some experience, with one start and 2 INT last season.
OUTLOOK: Yes, Illinois at #5. Really. As my study in December showed, this was a horribly unlucky team, closer to 7-5 or 6-6 than the 2-10 record they actually posted, as losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue were all winnable games. Add that to the fact that it was a horrible young team last year and that almost everyone comes back, and you can see the reason for optimism. However, there are two problems: One, the schedule is fairly hellish. Illinois draws three teams an echelon above them in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin at home, and draws a game that could go either way in Iowa (as well as Ohio State) on the road. Add to this a tough Missouri team in St. Louis, and that could be 6 losses right there. Now, while they could easily beat Missouri as well as steal one of those home and one of those road games, there's just problem: There is no reason to have faith in Ron Zook. Sadly. I want him to succeed, I really do, but he's bad at this. This could easily be a top-25 team, and based on on-field talent, they deserve this #5 ranking, but the combination of the schedule and the coach...uh oh. This should be the final benchmark as to whether or not Zook can succeed despite his continual top-five recruiting classes -- bowl eligibility or bust.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
6. Iowa
OFFENSE: Three-year starter/one-year disappointment Drew Tate leaves at QB, making way for sophomore Jake Christensen. Christensen was a top prospect coming out of HS, and he played decently over 5 games (285 yards, 2/2 TD/INT) as a redshirt frosh, so he should be at least capable. The running back corps is led by seniors Albert Young, whose talent is only matched by his injury history, and Damian Sims. If Young managed to make it through the season, he should easily surpass 1000 yards and then some, while Sims will be an above-average back if called upon. The receiving corps has gone from a weakness to a strength, as both top WR Dominique Douglas and Alamo Bowl star Andy Brodell reprise their roles as starters. Star TE Scott Chandler graduated; however, his loss is mitigated by junior TE Tony Moeaki becoming the new starter; Moeaki was highly regarded out of high school, and has done quite well in limited action over the last two seasons. The offensive line is the least experienced unit here; LT Dace Richardson and C Rafael Eubanks are in the top handful at their positions in the Big Ten, but past that, the OL loses two NFL draft picks and all-Big Ten guard Mike Jones. Part-time starter Seth Olsen should take the open right tackle spot, but the guard depth is somewhat mediocre past stud sophomore Dan Doering. However, Kirk Ferentz is somewhat of an offensive line guru, and while the Iowa O-Line isn't quite at the "Texas Tech QB" level of guaranteed success, it still shouldn't be much of a concern.
DEFENSE: Six of the front seven are returning starters, led by 2nd team Big Ten LB Mike Klinkenborg and Honorable Mention DE Bryan Mattison and DT Mitch King. Additionally, a healthy Kenny Iwebema can hopefully return to the form that made him all-Big Ten at DE in 2005. The secondary is the real concern about the defense, however. The returning CB duo of Charles Godfrey and Adam Shada should be as good as any in the conference; however, the Hawkeyes lose both starting safeties, and while the returning talent doesn't make the situation dire, it's still somewhat mediocre. Still, the defense was mediocre as a whole last season, and the returning talent, and perhaps more importantly, returning HEALTHY talent, should make the defense much-improved, especially against the run.
OUTLOOK: Iowa and Illinois are pretty much the same level of team - I gave Illinois the nudge since they easily have more talent, but Iowa is much easier to have faith in. The Hawkeyes are this year's lucky team that avoids Ohio State and Michigan, and they have an almost absurdly easy home slate, with the Illini being the only threat on the docket. At Penn State and at Wisconsin are the only probable losses, and that Illini game and at Purdue are the only two that could really go either way; quite frankly, I favor Iowa in either. The two main concerns for this team are the secondary and the offensive line; the former isn't much of a worry since the Big Ten is a running conference, and again, Kirk Ferentz deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the offensive line. Unless things completely collapse due to injury, Iowa should return to its usual path of nondescriptly winning 8-10 games.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
7. Purdue
OFFENSE: It's what the Boilermakers do best, as Purdue was the #10 overall and #5 pass offense in terms of yardage. Surprisingly, they rated nowhere near that high in scoring, so Purdue may get a little scoring bump due to regression to the mean. As for the players, well, almost everyone's back. At QB, junior Curtis Painter returns; he posted 3985 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage and a 22/19 TD/INT ratio last year - decent numbers that should be much improved this season. Also returning are two WRs that could very well be the best in the Big Ten, non-Manningham division: Notre Dame-shredding Selwyn Lymon and all-Big Ten Dorien Bryant. Also returning: #3 WR Greg Orton, starting TE Dustin Keller, and top two RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor. The only point of any concern is the offensive line, where they lose two starters with NFL talent. Still, the talent there is of a high enough quality where, in the big picture, concern shouldn't be too great. All in all, the unit should continue humming along as usual, and should increase their scoring output.
DEFENSE: Purdue had the sixth-worst yardage defense in the nation last year, but this side of the ball should be much improved, despite losing first-round DE/OLB Anthony Spencer. The line returns three of four starters, but the strength of the front seven should be the linebackers, where starters Stanford Keglar and Dan Bick return. The third spot should be filled by converted RB Anthony Heygood, who looked impressive during the spring, and top JuCo recruit Brian Ellis should also see time, likely at the MLB position. The secondary should also be much improved, as all four starters return. There's really not much to say about the Purdue defense - it's not top-tier in the conference, but should be much improved, hopefully due to more than just not playing Hawaii this season.
OUTLOOK: Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan back on the schedule, but Purdue should still remain bowl-eligible. The offense is high-powered, and the defense should at least be decent enough to keep them in almost every game (maybe not at Michigan.) This is the last of the three teams in the second tier of the Big Ten, and Purdue doesn't draw Illinois and gets Iowa at home, so there's a chance the Boilermakers could finish at #4 or 5. Purdue's somewhat of a blah team this year - there are no real swing games outside of Iowa at home, and maaaaaaybe at Indiana the last game of the season; the Boilermakers get Northwestern and Notre Dame at home, and I don't think they're good enough to beat Ohio State in West Lafayette. All in all, this season should wind up looking similar to last: 7-8 wins, and a decent bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
8. Northwestern
OFFENSE: Without 2002-2005 starting QB Brett Basanez, the Northwestern offense finished just outside the bottom ten in yardage last year, as defenses were able to stop star RB Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats' only weapon. The starter for the final 5 games last year, junior CJ Bacher returns, and while his numbers (1172 yards, 59% comp., 6/8 TD/INT) weren't much, he should improve to the point where Sutton can return the form that made him 2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. While the team loses top WR Shaun Herbert, the rest of the top five (including Sutton) return, all part-time starters last year. Since Northwestern runs four WR sets, the fourth slot should be taken by converted QB Andrew Brewer. The Wildcats also return three starters from a fairly disappointing offensive line; the two open slots should be filled by senior Adam Crum at LG and sophomore Kurt Mattes at RT, who was a top recruit out of HS. The offense should break out of last year's doldrums, and at the very least, be decent.
DEFENSE: The defense last year can best be classified as "not quite Purdue bad." Much like the offense, things should be much improved, as there is a good amount of returning talent. The entire starting defensive line returns, but the weakness of the Wildcats D should be the linebacking corps; while MLB Adam Kadela returns and there is some starting experience at the other positions, Northwestern lost its top LB in Nick Roach, and its #3 in Demetrius Eaton, so there should be a step back. The secondary should be the strength, as three-year starters CB Deante Battle, SS Brendan Smith, and FS Reggie McPherson all return, with the fourth spot occupied by Sherrick McManis, a part-time starter who covered Ted Ginn one-on-one last year as a true frosh. Much like the offense, the defense should, at the very least, ascend to decency.
OUTLOOK: Northwestern played roughly around their 4-8 record, and with how badly their statistics are compared with the nation as a whole, it's almost a shock they did that well. Still, this is a team that should be much improved, and for more than just not having to deal with the death of their coach, like last season. Additionally, the schedule is in place for bowl-eligibility, as Northwestern gets potential trap games against Nevada, Minnesota, and Indiana at home. If the Wildcats can win at Michigan State, which is quite possible, they could even make it to 7 wins! I don't know if they'll make it to a bowl this year, but at the very least, this is a program that's rebounding its way to better places.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Michigan State
OFFENSE: Although 2004-06 starting QB Drew Stanton was a 2nd round NFL draft pick, the Michigan State offense was only average, and even Stanton's stats weren't as impressive as his reputation: 1807 yards with a 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Junior Brian Hoyer steps in, and it actually wouldn't be a surprise to see him have better stats than Stanton last year. Despite losing their top three receivers, the WR corps may also surprise, as the Spartans led the NCAA in dropped passes last season; unless lightning strikes twice, things at receiver should at the very least be a wash. Either way, the running game should be the most consistent part of the offense; top two backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick return, and 4 of 5 starters return, including stud right guard Roland Martin.
DEFENSE: Michigan State's defense rested somewhere between Northwestern and Purdue, comfortably in the lower reaches of NCAA rankings. The Spartans actually weren't too bad against the run, but the pass? Hoo boy. Things should at least slightly improve in the secondary, as starting safeties Otis Wiley and Nehemiah Warrick return. Both starting CBs may have left, but there's still some experience, including part-time starter Kendell Davis-Clark. The front seven tells much the same story - there's some valuable experience lost, but enough returning where things should be somewhat of a wash. Of course, given last year's statistics, ehhhh.
OUTLOOK: I haven't really been a fan of the Mark Dantonio hire -- I mean, sure, he's a step up from whatever John L. Smith was, but he doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can lead MSU to Big Ten titles. He seems more destined to give Michigan State the type of success that Minnesota had under Glen Mason: a hell of a lot of bowl eligibility. And speaking of, the Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, actually have a shot at bowl eligibility this season. The Spartans schedule starts off with what should be two easy home wins against UAB and Bowling Green, and their next three home games, against Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Indiana, are all winnable. Unfortunately, MSU then draws Michigan and Penn State at home, along with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue on the road, all likely losses. That leaves at Notre Dame as the rubber game to reach .500, and the Spartans always play UND tough, and don't have John L. Smith to help them implode. All in all, I expect Michigan State to be at about the same level as last year -- fairly mediocre, but capable of pulling off an upset. Mark Dantonio'll just be doing it with a lot less talent than John L. did.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
10. Indiana
OFFENSE: QB Kellen Lewis came out of nowhere -- literally, he materialized out of nothing -- to be a revelation last year as a redshirt frosh, throwing for 2221 yards on 54.9% passing and a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. That's much better numbers than, say, a Juice Williams, and Lewis is well on his way to being an elite QB as an upperclassman. Lewis also doubled as the Hoosiers' leading rusher, but with top two backs Marcus Thigpen and Demetrius McCray returning, that hopefully shouldn't repeat. 2nd team all-Big Ten WR James Hardy leads a receiving corps that has had some losses via graduation, but also returns lots of starting experience. Also, the offensive line should be much improved, as four of five starters return, and the fifth will be experienced senior center Ben Wyss. The offense last year was in the average range, but should be improved, if only as Lewis matures behind that improved offensive line. If the running game is improved and healthier, the Hoosiers offense could be fairly surprising.
DEFENSE: While the defense wasn't as bad as Purdue's from a yardage basis, they were bottom-ten in points allowed, and were generally quite awful. Still, things should improve, as eight starters return. All of the top eight return along the defensive line, outside of top DE Kenny Kendal, and the LB corps will be much more experienced, led by Geno Johnson and Adam McClurg. The secondary should be improved, but may be the weakness of this team -- Second team Big Ten CB Tracy Porter returns, but the starter opposite him, Chris Phillips, looks to have lost his job to senior Leslie Majors. Sophomore strong safety Austin Thomas returns after starting half of last year, but free safety looks to be somewhat of a void, led by either converted kicker Joe Kleinsmith or converted receiver Nick Polk. While the defense should be improved, it doesn't feel like it's going to be much so - the best case should be that it becomes middle of the road, and either way the offense will carry this team.
OUTLOOK: The death of coach Terry Hoeppner casts a cloud over this season, and the promotion of Bill Lynch to interim head coach makes Indiana somewhat hard to evaluate. While this is an improving team with lots of reasons for optimism, the fact is, last year Indiana played two games under Lynch: at home against Southern Illinois and Connecticut. The former should have been an easy win, and the latter a 50/50 shot. The Hoosiers played poorly and lost in both. I considered putting Indiana in last given this evidence, but if I'm not going to punish Illinois for their coaching, it'd be unfair to do the same to the Hoosiers; plus, Lynch may perform better given more than a week or so's notice. Indiana also has the schedule for bowl eligibility - home games against Indiana State, Akron, Minnesota, and Ball State should all be winnable, and the Hoosiers could easily win two of three out of games at Western Michigan, at Northwestern, and at Michigan State. This year the Hoosiers should be improved, both as a statement of fact and as a must in the big picture -- a lost season here would end all momentum and could set the program back quite a bit.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
11. Minnesota
OFFENSE: Under Glen Mason, the Gophers were the Broncos of college football, even down to the cut blocking, churning out 1000-yard rushers like they were nothing. While the latest back in that tradition, Amir Pinnix, returns, Mason doesn't, and Minnesota will have to learn a new offense under Tim Brewster. There's returning talent on the offensive line, as the Gophers lose two starters but return pretty much all other notable depth, but how well things will be implemented remains to be seen. The aptitude of the running game will dictate how the offense goes, since there isn't much else returning outside of star WR Ernie Wheelwright. The Gophers offense really looks like a crapshoot as far as predictability; while a number of factors suggest a slide, new OC Mike Dunbar was the architect of some high-powered offenses at Northwestern - this could lead to a situation like Rice last year, where a team expected to have some trouble adjusting in fact suddenly flourishes in a spread-offense system.
DEFENSE: While the Minnesota D was decent scoring-wise, it was absolutely dreadful in yards/game, finishing ahead of only seven other teams. And things don't look to be getting much better, particularly after some off-field goings-on have decimated this side of the ball. The secondary looked to be a strength, but no more, as star CB Dominic Jones and #3 CB Keith Massey were both kicked off the team; the two starting safeties return, and part-time starter Desi Steib is the returning cornerback, but the loss of Jones specifically is a huge blow to the passing D. The front seven is better off, however. Potential breakout DE Alex Daniels, who actually started at running back at times last year, was also kicked off the team, but 6 of 7 starters return, led by 2nd team-Big Ten DE Willie VanDeSteeg. The team also gets a boost in Tennessee transfer DE Raymond Henderson, who was a top talent coming out of high school. Even though teams could pass on Minnesota at will, the run defense was still below-average last season; that should be the one clear improvement over last year.
OUTLOOK: My first instinct was to say that Minnesota was underrated by the pre-season mags, but after seeing how improbable a 6-6 team they were last season, and after losing Jones, Daniels, and Massey, definitely not. Head coach Tim Brewster is such an unknown that it's hard to say if it was a good or bad hire, but OC Mike Dunbar was a good hire; it's just that the transition to his offense may tank this season before any dividends can be reaped. Luckily, the Gophers have an OOC schedule of Bowling Green, Miami of Ohio, North Dakota State, and at Florida Atlantic, so they should win all of those, though they may drop one of the first two. The Gophers could've actually had a shot at surprise bowl eligibility, but they draw their two likeliest conference wins, Indiana and Northwestern, on the road. Hey, at least things should be better when the new stadium opens in 2009.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
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