SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Arkansas (3-1) @ #5 Auburn (5-0)
Arkansas is overrated. Then again, they probably shouldn't have beaten Alabama, so stranger things have happened. Still, that Auburn team is pretty good, even if Brandon Cox is still pretty ehhhhhh.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence (out of 5): 3
#11 Clemson (4-1) @ Wake Forest (5-0)
The injury to Clemson WR Chansi Stuckey may make the Tigers a bit more one-dimensional, but they should be fine. Especially against this Wake team, since I can't imagine they'll be able to stop all those quality Clemson backs. There's a chance this could be ugly, but then again, Wake might be better than BC.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
#24 Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Syracuse (3-2)
Pitt should be able to stop that Syracuse...offense? Actually, it's been decent this year, so I shouldn't hate so much. But still. I'm still a bit tenative on Pitt, mostly due to the Wannstache, but they're quite easily the better team.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
Indiana (2-3) @ Illinois (2-3)
Illinois still is only "maybe mediocre" at best, but Indiana is just so bad. I have as much confidence in the Illini as one can have in a team this below average.
The Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
North Carolina (1-3) @ Miami (2-2)
Miami's so underwhelming, but they hold a secret that is North Carolina's biggest weakness: a running back.
The Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
Penn State (3-2) @ Minnesota (2-3)
I had low expectations for Minnesota going into the season, and losing to Purdue does nothing to change that. Well, nothing positively, at any rate. However, Anthony Morelli may shit himself at any moment.
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-3) @ Wisconsin (4-1)
Well, Northwestern's wins over Miami of Ohio and EMU look a lot worse now. Wisconsin hasn't faced anyone outside of Michigan, and...well, that won't change after this game.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
Western Michigan (3-1) @ Ohio (2-3)
Ohio beat NIU, and then...um...sucked. WMU lost to Indiana, and then looked pretty good. While Indiana has been pretty horrible, I had hopes for WMU going into the year, and it looks like they've gotten out of that funk. The Broncos should win this one, but there's always the potential for MACtastic wackiness.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 3
12:03 PM
Purdue (4-1) @ #16 Iowa (4-1)
Purdue isn't really that good, but...is Iowa? Maybe, maybe not, but I still have faith in Drew Tate, and hey, they're at home.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
VMI @ Army (2-3)
Wow, VMI's I-AA? Good for them. Army should kill them.
The Pick: Army
Confidence: 4
Ball State (1-4) @ Buffalo (1-3)
Ball State's win over EMU to start the year seemed to mean that Ball State was keeping up their momentum from last year. Now, it looks like it just means they're as good as Louisiana-Lafayette. The Cardinals can't stop anyone passing, but despite that, they've played teams like NIU close. This might be as close to picking Buffalo as I ever get. Well, except when I picked them against Temple.
The Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Texas A&M (4-1) @ Kansas (3-2)
God, who knows how good (or bad) A&M is. The only team of any note they've played is Texas Tech, and the jury's still out on THEM. Kansas has looked good at home, and Texas A&M DID almost lose to Army, so...
The Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-2) @ Temple (0-5)
TEMPLE IS SO BAD AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 5
2:00 PM
Navy (4-1) @ Air Force (2-1)
Both teams have looked good. Navy's probably looked more impressive (especially after the whooping of UConn), but Air Force has still mostly imposed their will, even at Tennessee. I'll go with the home team, but it seems about even. I think.
The Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1
San Diego State (0-4) @ BYU (3-2)
SDSU has just looked abysmal so far. Come on, they lost to San Jose State. BYU's good but not great, and if Adam Tafralis can pass against the Aztecs, a good QB like John Beck should.
The Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
Vanderbilt (2-3) @ Mississippi (1-4)
Vandy's only beat Temple and a I-AA, so while they've looked better than Ole Miss lately, that doesn't really mean much given the competition. Mississippi isn't really any good this year, but they have more talent, and they could get better as time goes on.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 2
Rice (1-4) @ Tulane (1-3)
Rice has played the harder schedule and played Houston a lot closer. Tulane might be decent, but Rice is motivated and coming off annihilating Army. Confidence is still pretty low because, hey, it's Rice.
The Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#8 West Virginia (4-0) @ Mississippi State (1-4)
Yeah, WVU should run all over them here. Mississippi State seems to be improving from the beginning of the year, but, uh, no.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
Stanford (0-5) @ #17 Notre Dame (4-1)
Notre Dame's overrated, but Stanford's awful. I doubt the Cardinal turn it around here.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Bowling Green (3-2) @ #2 Ohio State (5-0)
The usual good BGSU team probably couldn't compete against this Buckeyes team. This is not the usual good BGSU team.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Washington (4-1) @ #3 USC (4-0)
USC's had their scrapes lately, but I'm still not fully buying Washington. The Huskies look good, but the Pac 10's down, and I'm not sure they'll be able to beat such a talented USC team. They should be able to hang for a while, however.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
#7 LSU (4-1) @ #4 Florida (5-0)
LSU's looked as impressive as anyone...except against Auburn. And their schedule's been pretty weak outside of that game. Florida's run a comparative gauntlet (despite, say, UCF, and an improved-but-still-Kentucky Kentucky team), and they've pretty much solidly beat everyone, including Tennessee (they handily won the yardage battle). LSU still might have more talent, and JaMarcus Russell vs. the Florida secondary, I know, but LSU could just as easily disappear.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
#6 Texas (4-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (3-1)
Man, Texas hasn't really played anyone. I was leaning towards picking OU, but Texas has been a beast against the run. And I'm still not sure what the hell's up with that OU defense. Adrian Peterson should be able to make it a game, but the OU defense might be able to make it a blowout.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 1
Maryland (3-1) @ #20 Georgia Tech (4-1)
Calvin Johnson could always get injured. So Maryland has a chance. Maybe
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
Akron (2-3) @ Cincinnati (2-3)
Cincinnati's looked good when playing teams that aren't way out of their league, but those teams are I-AA Eastern Kentucky and 0-5 Miami of Ohio. Akron's beat a seemingly-kind-of-decent NC State team, but lost to two MAC surprises: Central Michigan and Kent State. So, Akron has the better wins but the worse losses, while Cincinnati's looked decent against great competition but beaten absolutely nobody. I had more expectations for Akron in the preseason, and again, they've had the better wins, so despite being on the road, I'm picking the Zips.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Baylor (2-3) @ Colorado (0-5)
Colorado has become somewhat respectable. So has Baylor, I guess, but a near-loss at Missouri is probably better than an even win against Kansas State. Plus the Bears really don't have a running game. Really. They don't.
The Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
3:35 PM
Oklahoma State (3-1) @ Kansas State (3-2)
Two lower-tier Big 12 teams here, though OK State is the one with hope. They played Houston close and won their cupcake games handily. KSU, meanwhile, almost lost to Illinois State, and DID lose to Baylor.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
4:30 PM
Michigan State (3-2) @ #1 Michigan (5-0)
I've lost all hope for the Spartans. Not that it would help them here.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
5:05 PM
New Mexico State (2-2) @ Idaho (2-3)
NMSU's played two I-AAs, and Idaho's played decent mid-majors. It's hard to get a read on either team, so I'll just go with the NMSU wacky passtastic offense.
The Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
UNLV (1-3) @ Colorado State (3-1)
CSU's pretty good, beating Fresno even though they lost to Nevada. UNLV's got some talent, but judging by the season so far, they're a year away. Or more.
The Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Virginia (2-3) @ East Carolina (1-3)
ECU's one win over Memphis doesn't seem that impressive. And hey, Virginia beat Wyoming! These two teams are pretty much going nowhere. I had hopes for ECU before the season, but they haven't given me any reason to keep them. Virginia's not any good in the ACC, but again, that Wyoming win's over a better team than ECU probably is.
The Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#22 Missouri (5-0) @ Texas Tech (4-1)
Mizzou doesn't really deserve to be ranked, but the problem is that there aren't 25 teams who do. Mizzou's been pretty good at stopping the pass all year, but I don't think they can in Lubbock. Missouri's probably still the better overall team, and, well, TCU stopped Texas Tech, so I have my reservations, but I'm still going with the Raiders.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-3) @ UCLA (3-1)
Arizona hasn't really impressed at all since ekeing out BYU. UCLA's looked decent against a weaker slate, but killed Utah, so I'm going with the Bruins here. Especially at home.
The Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 2
Central Michigan (2-3) @ Toledo (2-3)
CMU's been surprisingly competitive, Toledo's been surprisingly down. Pittsburgh game aside, Toledo seems to look like the better team statistically, and despite CMU's 2-0 MAC record, I'm taking the Rockets here. Seems like a case of CMU's low expectations raising my opinions of them since they actually seem decent.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1
Connecticut (2-2) @ South Florida (3-2)
USF QB Matt Grothe seems like a one-man team, and the UConn defense imploding against Navy makes the Huskies' offensive struggles even more frustrating. I could see a chance of an upset were this in East Hartford (though it has been nice here lately), but at USF? Forget it.
The Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 2
Florida International (0-5) @ North Texas (1-4)
FIU's bad, let's get that out of the way. But UNT has been perplexing. They were able to beat SMU, who now seems to have gotten things together, but struggled to break 100 total yards against MTSU, and failed to against Tulsa. But again, FIU's bad, and I'll just take my chances with the Mean Green at home.
The Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-2) @ Houston (4-1)
ULL seems pretty good for a Sun Belt team, I guess. Houston's good and probably should've beaten Miami, however, so they should definitely kick the crap out of LALA here.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
South Carolina (3-2) @ Kentucky (3-2)
Again, Kentucky seems surprisingly decent this year, but South Carolina looks to have turned the corner after the Georgia game. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a blowout, and I wouldn't be surprised if this was "surprisingly" close. I'd be moderately surprised if the Gamecocks lost, however.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Memphis (1-3) @ UAB (2-3)
Memphis seems to have just fallen apart, with the bad ECU lost and just getting depantsed by Tennessee. UAB's at least been competitive against non-Georgia defenses, and hey, they're at home.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 2
Washington State (3-2) @ Oregon State (2-2)
Two middling Pac 10 teams. The best barometers for each are probably Wazzou playing USC close and Oregon State being killed by Boise. This obviously works in Washington State's favor.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:05 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (1-3) @ Arkansas State (2-2)
Arkansas State can run. ULM can...well, I'm not sure what. Lose?
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 3
7:07 PM
Duke (0-4) @ Alabama (3-2)
I can only imagine this start time is an attempt to make this game interesting. It's failed.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
7:45 PM
#15 Tennessee (4-1) @ #13 Georgia (5-0)
Tereshinki's back. Maybe UGA will have some offense now. Tennessee's probably the overall better team, but I can see Erik Ainge returning to "fainting goat" form against that Georgia D. Plus even without an offense, Georgia strikes me as one of those teams that keeps somehow hanging on when everyone expects them to lose.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#9 Oregon (4-0) @ #10 California (4-1)
I still like Cal more than Oregon for some reason. I suppose the Golden Bears have the better defense, Rudy Carpenter's implosion against the Ducks aside, but with Cal QB Nate Longshore getting in stride, both offenses are about as high-octane. I obviously wouldn't be shocked if the Ducks won, but I think Cal's just as good, and they're at home.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 1
Louisiana Tech (1-3) @ #18 Boise State (5-0)
LA Tech has little chance in Ruston, and no chance here.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#19 Nebraska (4-1) @ Iowa State (3-2)
Yeah, I quit liking ISU so much after almost losing to I-AA Northern Iowa. Nebraska struggled against Kansas, but the Jayhawks may be a better team than the Cyclones, and Nebraska has a tendency this year to light it up against inferior foes.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Wyoming (1-4) @ New Mexico (2-3)
New Mexico has both lost by 11 to Portland State and beat UTEP by 13, so who the hell knows there. Wyoming keeps losing close, but has overall looked like a pretty decent MWC team. I'll take the surer thing.
The Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
8:05 PM
Fresno State (1-3) @ Utah State (0-5)
Fresno, as the record shows, seems quite down this year. However, Utah State's only offensive TDs have come losing to Idaho. So the Bulldogs should start the march to .500 here.
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
SMU (3-2) @ UTEP (2-2)
SMU seems to be back from the dead after sucking worse than Temple at the start of the year. UTEP's whole seems to be less than the sum of their parts, as a loss to UNM and a close win over NMSU show. SMU hasn't beaten the kind of team to convince me they're back, and I doubt it'll come here. The Jordan Palmer Interception Experience aside.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Nevada (3-2) @ Hawaii (2-2)
Hawaii's passtastic offense has kept them in there, even against Bama and Boise, while Nevada has, as usual, started slow and began gelling about now. Quite the intriguing game, but I think Nevada has the secondary (hello, Joe Garcia!) to pull it out.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Northern Illinois (3-2) @ Miami of Ohio (0-5)
Well, at least Garrett Wolfe gets a showcase. Kind of. Against Sunday Night Football.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 4
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