Sunday, September 16, 2007

Week 3 Recap

#1 LSU 44, Middle Tennessee State 0
That MTSU offense that looked so dynamic against Louisville? Held to 89 yards. That LSU defense is just fucking frightening. Nightmare fuel.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Middle Tennessee State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#2 West Virginia 31, Maryland 14
Maryland kept this very close early, but as I figured, WVU turned on the jets and put the turtles away in the second half. Pat White had probably his worst game passing, but still completed 61.5% for 95 yards. Steve Slaton (26 carries, 137 yards, 3 TD) is still very good, but Noel Devine looked pretty amazing, and had 136 yards on only 5 touches. Yes, he had 27.2 yards per carry. Maryland's a fine team, and is one of the 10 or so teams to have a shot at winning the ACC, which is beginning to look like the MAC's big brother.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Maryland: STOCK NEUTRAL

#3 Oklahoma 54, Utah State 3
The kind of bad, but mostly insignificant news: QB Sam Bradford finally through an INT, albeit accompanying 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. The obscenely great news: RB DeMarco Murray had 100 yards on 4 carries. Yes, 4 carries. Yes, 100 yards. OU still frightens me.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#4 USC 49, #20 Nebraska 31
Hm. About even yardagewise, even though USC dominated the middle of the game. John David Booty was efficient, going 19/30 for 2 TD, but only 144 yards; he could afford it, as a cavalcade of running backs were productive for the Trojans, led by Stafon Johnson's 144 yards and 1 TD. Sam Keller was fine - he completed 66% and had 388 yards, but only a 2/2 ratio; the Husker running game didn't do much of anything, though. A solid win, even if I don't see how they can still be rated over LSU - this was convincing, but nowhere near as frightening and dominant as what LSU did to Virginia Tech. Still, USC pretty much had the level of game they should've against Idaho, and Nebraska remains what they are - pretty good, not that great.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK NEUTRAL

#5 Texas 35, Central Florida 32
Huh. I know UCF was breaking in their new stadium and all, but Texas really needs to get their shit together and fast. The statistics are mixed: Colt McCoy completed 68% and had 259 yards, but only a 1/1 ratio. RB Jamaal Charles ran for 146 yards and a TD on 6.6 per carry, but fumbled it away twice. UCF mostly rode RB Kevin Smith, who had 27 carries for 149 yards. Knights QB Kyle Israel was less impressive, completing only 35% and fumbling it away twice, wind up with a 2/3 TD/turnover ratio via land and air combined. I'll keep Texas steady, barely, and bump UCF up to top C-USA contender status.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Florida: STOCK UP

Kentucky 40, #6 Louisville 34
SHOOTOUT! Extremely even, with the one deciding factor pretty much being that Brian Brohm had a pick, Andre Woodson did not. Both QBs even had 65% completion percentages, and the teams were within 12 yards of each other. Frankly, I'd still take Louisville's offense, but whatever. The Cardinals now complete their slip into the "all offense, no defense" realm, while Kentucky needs to be taken seriously.
Kentucky: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

#7 South Carolina 38, South Carolina State 3
Up next on SC's path to state supremacy: Charleston Southern.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL

#8 Penn State 45, Buffalo 24
About even yardage-wise, but PSU was so efficient that they shouldn't really be docked. RB Rodney Kinlaw ran for 130 and a TD on 25 carries, and Austin Scott added 53 and a TD on 9 carries, but the real positive sign is QB Anthony Morelli, who rebounded to throw for 209 and 4 TD on 74% passing. There was good news for Buffalo, though, as their QB, Drew Willy, completed 70% of his 40 passes, though he only had a 1/1 TD/INT ratio. PSU still looks like the Big Ten favorite.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Buffalo: STOCK NEUTRAL

#9 Ohio State 33, Washington 14
Washington QB Jake Locker did about as well as you could expect for having his third start against such a stout defense; while his 16/33, 153, 1/3 line wasn't any great shakes, he also scrambled for 103 yards on the ground and generally looked more composed than, say, Jimmy Clausen. OSU just slowly put this one away, though, capitalizing on Locker's mistakes and getting good games from QB Todd Boeckman (56%, 220, 2 TD) and RB Chris Wells (24 car, 134 yards, TD). Washington's obviously much improved, and Locker's gonna be a good one - I'll bump them up a tad from "Oregon State-level" to being capable of being able to beat a UCLA or even Cal. Ohio State remains very good.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK UP

#10 Wisconsin 45, The Citadel 31
Not much to say, just putting this here since I do have Wisconsin in my top 25. It was closer than expected, though. Citadel QB Duran Lawson had a much better day than expected, going 23 of 35 for 254 and a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. It's pretty unclear if this was a fluke or a trend, so I'll just give the Badgers a mulligan.
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL

#11 Alabama 41, Arkansas 38
The Tide offense finally showed some balance, as QB John Parker Wilson completed only 53%, but was pretty productive, winding up with 328 yards and a 4/2 ratio. As for Arkansas, Casey Dick had a Ryan Mallett-esque 3 TDs, but 47% passing, and well, it must be said, holy shit that running game. Darren McFadden had 199 and 2 TDs, and Felix Jones added 100 yards of his own. I earned some more respect for Arkansas after coming back like they did (Alabama started out up 21-0), but my perception didn't really change regarding either team. McFadden and Jones alone make the Hogs a top-35 or so team, and Alabama's still the looming SEC darkhorse. Well, besides South Carolina. Can you be a #2 darkhorse? If so, they're that.
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK NEUTRAL

#12 Texas A&M 54, Louisiana-Monroe 14
A much-needed decisive shitkicking.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK NEUTRAL

#13 Florida 59, Tennessee 20
Well, firstly, Tennessee is obviously in the second tier of the SEC with the Arkansases and...Arkansases of the world, so not much has changed re: my perception on that end. As for Florida, this took some steps towards validating themselves to me as a top-ten level team, even if I'm still not sure they belong all the way at #5. Tim Tebow ran for 62 and 2 scores, and mostly exploited the questionable Tennessee secondary, completing 74% for 299 yards, 2 TD, and his one major miscue in an INT that was returned by frosh CB Eric Berry. This was obviously Florida's biggest win yet, and again validates them to some extent, but I'll still remain cautious of being as bullish as the polls are.
Florida: STOCK UP
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL

#14 Oregon 52, Fresno State 21
Not all that close, as Oregon was at the top of their game. The Ducks were a two-headed monster, with QB Dennis Dixon completing 67% for 153 and 2 TD, rushing for 55 and a score, and RB Jonathan Stewart going for an obscene 165 and 2 TD for 17 carries. Oregon is, in fact, a very good team.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Fresno State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#15 Georgia 45, Western Carolina 16
Yeeeeep.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL

#16 Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7
VT somehow put up 467 yards, but everything adds up (obviously); new QB Tyrod Taylor put up an unproductive 282 yards on 55% passing, and RBs Branden Ore (85, TD) and Kenny Lewis (62, 2 TD) had productive if not huge nights. But the big story was the VT defense, which finally lived up to its reputation by holding Ohio to only 109 yards. I'll refrain from excessive optimism until VT proves itself against a better offense, but this is a good sign.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Ohio: STOCK NEUTRAL

#17 Missouri 52, Western Michigan 24
Just wanted to make a note that I'm finally downgrading WMU, whose supposedly elite secondary hasn't looked too good at all. They may do well in the MAC, and Missouri does have a top-flight QB, but still. Jeez guys.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
Western Michigan: STOCK DOWN

#18 Arizona State 34, San Diego State 13
SDSU looked good here, so I'll give them some credit and bump them up. Arizona State is, in fact, solidly better than then. Went about as expected. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Diego State: STOCK UP

#21 Clemson 38, Furman 10
Similar to the PSU game, Clemson was actually outgained slightly here, but had too many positive signs to really count it against them. Cullen Harper had a pretty excellent 84% completion percentage for 239 and 2 touchdowns. So good for him. Yep.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL

#22 Hawaii 49, UNLV 14
Brennan: 26/32, 302 yards, 2 TD, BUT also 3 rushing touchdowns. That's what they do, yep.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL

#23 Rutgers 59, Norfolk State 0
Way to go, guys.
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL

#24 California 42, Louisiana Tech 12
Awwww. Cal rushing for almost as many yards as they passed for makes me feel kind of empty inside, in this time of always being on the edge of my seat, anticipating someone throwing for 500 against that Bulldogs secondary.
California: NEUTRAL

Boston College 24, #25 Georgia Tech 10
Okay, I buy Boston College, and GT was a tad exposed. GT was mediocre, as QB Taylor Bennett barely completed half his passes, and RB Tashard Choice didn't do much of anything, even if the offense wasn't completely stopped. Meanwhile, BC's Matt Ryan was unstoppable juggernaut of passing, going for 434 and a score on 68% passing, but letting RB LV Whitworth run 2 touchdowns in. BC's now one of the clear favorites in that parity-filled ACC.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN

Air Force 20, TCU 17 (OT)
Huh, how about that. I figured, once I saw the score, that AFA's "we're converting to a more pass-based offense" stuff was a hoax and that they ran it down TCU's throat until they died. But, no the Falcons actually passed for more yardage than they ran. TCU QB Andy Dalton was fine, going 29/45 for 320 and a 2/2 ratio, so this doesn't really lower my perception of the Horned Frogs. They're still probably the best team in the MWC, though obviously not dominant, and if anything, this establishes Air Force as a team that could be bowl-eligible and more.
Air Force: STOCK UP
TCU: STOCK NEUTRAL

Indiana 41, Akron 24
IU QB Kellen Lewis came remarkably close to winning the Kinsmon Lancaster award for outgaining the entire opposing offense, gaining 334 yards to Akron's 373. And Lewis is really the only story here, as Akron put in the average but not great performance you'd expect. Anyway, again, Lewis's line: 19/24, 134, 3/1 ratio passing, 19 carries for 200 and 2 TD rushing. Lewis is maturing quite well, and the team's looked good under Bill Lynch; bowl-eligibility looks more and more like a possibility, and I'm bullish on the Hoosiers.
Indiana: STOCK UP
Akron: STOCK NEUTRAL

Wake Forest 24, Army 10
Two of Wake's TD came on a punt return and INT return, as both offenses were anemic, like the field was pumped with noxious gas or something. Brett Hodges went 9/12 for 49 whole yards, and that was the winning quarterback. About sums it up. I'll give Wake a mulligan for the time being, just based on them looking good in the games I saw, but Army? Awful.
Wake Forest: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL

Mississippi State 19, Auburn 14
Not that surprised, although I'm somewhat shocked MSU did it with as impotent a passing game as they had, as three QBs combined for 5/18 passing and just 42 yards. Still, Auburn's Brandon Cox pretty much gave the game away anyway, going only 4 for 10 for 41 yards and 2 picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The running game was mostly a wash, so, yeah, Auburn played about even with Mississippi State, just with more mistakes. I'll keep MSU neutral because oh god, that passing game is horrible, but knock Auburn down a notch, because well, oh god, that passing game is horrible. And given the history of teams Mississippi State has upset under Sylvester Croom, Tommy Tuberville better watch his job.
Mississippi State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn: STOCK DOWN

Tulsa 55, Brigham Young 47
SHOOOOOTOOOOOOUUUUUT! BYU's Max Hall: 34/58, 527, 4/2 ratio. Tulsa's Paul Smith: 21/35, 454, 5/1 ratio. I'm not sure if this was Tulsa's intended offensive gameplan, but whatever it is, it works, so I'll bump Tulsa up a bit to being legit. As for BYU, well, shootouts are what they do.
Tulsa: STOCK UP
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL

Florida State 16, Colorado 6
YAWWWWWN. Just a boring shitfest. FSU only had 218 yards, and should be ashamed. At least CU's a young team I don't know what the 'Noles excuse is.
Florida State: STOCK DOWN
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL

Connecticut 22, Temple 17
Temple got robbed. They called a double reverse WR pass to the QB on their last play of the game, and it was deflected and caught, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. The replay clearly showed the receiver eked a foot into the back of the end zone, but the call stood, and Connecticut knelt out the clock for the win. I'm shocked Temple racked up 332 yards, since they were mostly ineffective outside of the final drive and a 59-yard TD pass near the end of the second quarter, but Connecticut's defense was, in fact, uninspiring. The run defense was a concern for the Huskies last year, and that trend continued with Owls RB Jason Harper gaining 5.1 yards per carry. Still, the offensive line was, as always, the biggest glaring weakness for UConn. QB Tyler Lorenzen went 19/29 for 223, but was sacked 8 times and was running for his life for a majority of the time. And this was the Temple defense. On the plus side, backup RB Andre Dixon was a revelation, going for 129 on 21 carries, and usual starter Donald Brown did the dirty work in the red zone, getting 2 scores, but past that...eh. Lorenzen seems to a better QB than last year's starter, and this year's WR, DJ Hernandez, but most of the teams in the Big East should put him on his back enough that nobody will really be able to tell. I was optimistic in the preseason, but that I've been able to see UConn (they were, seriously, pre-empted for billiards last week) live and in color, this looks like a rehash of last year's 4-8 team. The drama awaits as to if we can beat Syracuse, and who we replace Randy Edsall with in the offseason. Oh, and for Temple, they're well on their way to playing at, say, a Ball State level next year.
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
Temple: STOCK NEUTRAL

Duke 20, Northwestern 14
Yaaaaay! Duke got outgained by 200 yards, but were the more efficient team. Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis was especially impressive, completing 83% of his passes for 248 and 3 TD. I said in the preseason Duke would be competitive, and while they tried to prove me wrong in their first two games, this renews my faith. Northwestern is...mercurial.
Duke: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK NEUTRAL

Florida Atlantic 42, Minnesota 39
CB Dominic Jones being kicked off the team by Minnesota may have been the most crucial offseason loss for anyone. Minnesota's secondary is now wonderfully, almost legendarily awful, as this was FAU QB Rusty Smith's line: 27/44, 467 yards, 5 TD. Minnesota may go 0-8 against the Big Ten just out of sheer inability to stop someone, and I'll pump FAU up from "solid Sun Belt #3" to the Troy/ULM level of conference title favorites.
Florida Atlantic: STOCK UP
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN

Houston 34, Tulane 10
Pretty much unnotable, except Houston RB Anthony Alridge finally had a YPC average nowhere near 10, averaging only 4.7 per carry against the Green Wave. Awww.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL

Illinois 41, Syracuse 20
Syracuse QB Andrew Robinson completed 65% of his passes, and that's the end of the good news for an Orange team that remains absolutely horrible. The Illini's Juice Williams only attempted 18 passes, and completed 13 for 97 and a score, but mostly allowed the Illinois running game to put on a show. Rashard Mendenhall was the lead back, going for 150 and 3 scores on 16 carries, and two other backs broke the 90-yard barrier. Illinois, a good team. Syracuse, an awful one.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL

Iowa State 15, Iowa 13
RIVALRY GAMES! ISU won in perhaps the most uninspiring way possible, on five field goals. Uh...QB Bret Meyer was accurate (73%)? I'm trying to think of good signs here. Iowa, you should be ashamed of yourself. Both teams were bad, Iowa slightly worse, this is more a huge point of concern for the Hawkeyes than any sort of turning the corner for ISU under Gene Chizik.
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa: STOCK DOWN

Kansas 45, Toledo 13
Pretty much an annihilation. KU held the Toledo pass attack to only 77 yards, and put up 561 yards of delicious, cream-filled offense. Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing was the star here, going for 313 and 4 TD, even if he did only complete 46% of his passes. If that 46% wasn't so glaring, I'd pump KU up, but I'll remain a skeptic re: their legitness. Kansas has a cupcake against FIU next, but if they win at Kansas State, we probably have something, even if the Jayhawks look like a bowl eligible team.
Kansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Toledo: STOCK NEUTRAL

McNeese State 38, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
That ain't good.
Louisiana-Lafayette: STOCK DOWN

New Hampshire 48, Marshall 35
Huh, how about that. Just notable for a I-AA beating a I-A team; UNH is a I-AA power though, so things should still be rosy for Marshall, just a little harder to get bowl eligible.
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL

Michigan 38, Notre Dame 0
Both offenses were in fact horrible outside of Mike Hart (35 car, 187 yds, 2 TD), as Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett somehow had 3 TDs without completing 50% of his passes. Michigan's defense looked good, I suppose, but that's more than likely due to the ineptitude of the Notre Dame offense. That Irish offensive line is absolutely horrible, giving up 8 sacks, but they did allow UND to have their best game running of the season, with 23 whole yards on the ground. I'm still retaining my skepticism of Michigan, because oh my word, Notre Dame is just...amazingly inept.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN

New Mexico State 29, UTEP 24
FINALLY! NMSU QB Chase Holbrook: 36/48, 434 yards, 3/1 ratio. YAAAAAY!
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL
UTEP: STOCK NEUTRAL

Virginia 22, North Carolina 20
As close as the score. UVA QB Jameel Sewell didn't do much of anything, completing 65% for only 95 yards, but could afford to do so thanks to RB Cedric Peerman, who ran for 186 and a TD. UNC QB TJ Yates was essentially the entire offense for the Tar Heels, as he put up 333 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 66% passing, while the team only ran for 60 yards. Virginia continues to disappoint, so I'll knock them down a notch, and hell, UNC appears to have a viable QB, so that moves them up a bit as well. They can be competitive in the crushingly disappointing ACC.
Virginia: STOCK DOWN
North Carolina: STOCK UP

Troy 41, Oklahoma State 23
I'm not that shocked about the result, more the way it came about. OK State put up 432 total yards, but QB Zac Robinson (18/37, 191, 1/2 ratio) looked awful, and as the score obviously shows, that defense cannot stop anyone. The Cowboys are probably the most disappointing team in the country. As for Troy, I'm not really that sure what to make of them. QB Omar Haugabook had easily his best performance, completing 69% for 371 and a 1/1 ratio, but, again, the defense gave up 432 yards. It's hard to complain about what's obviously a huge win for the Trojans, but I'm still not all that sold on the defense; and if the defense is only average for the Sun Belt, I'm still not 100% sure Troy can have the offensive performance like this that'd be required to win. Still, a huge win's a huge win, so good for you, Troy.
Troy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oklahoma State: STOCK DOWN

Stanford 37, San Jose State 0
Huh. How about that. Stanford winning isn't a suprise, but SJSU was pretty pathetic here.
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Jose State: STOCK DOWN

Utah 44, UCLA 6
UCLA was this week's team that lost a close game yardage-wise due to turnovers, in this case 3 Ben Olson picks and 2 fumbles. Still, Utah showed some signs of life that were sorely lacking in previous games; Darrell Mack ran for 108 and a TD on 19 carries, and QB Tommy Grady finally came through, throwing for 263 and 4 scores on 59% passing. I'll nudge Utah back up a bit because of that, and UCLA down a bit, since they were on the fringes of my top 25, and well, obviously aren't anymore.
Utah: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

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