Sorry for the relative lateness, busy week. I also apologize for any non-sequiturs that should show up here, as I seem to have been misusing words when typing without realizing it lately.
12:00 PM
#1 LSU (4-0) @ Tulane (1-2)
Mississippi State beat Tulane pretty good, and after LSU-Mississippi State, the transitive property or whatever means that, and lemme see, if I carry the 3 here...yep, this is gonna be horribly ugly.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence (out of 5): 5
#13 Penn State (3-1) @ Illinois (3-1)
Ooh, this is an interesting one. Anthony Morelli could very well make enough mistakes to hand this one to the Illini, especially with the game in Champaign. Still, I don't think the Illinois passing game will be able to do much; Juice Williams hasn't really taken that next step (yet), and that's a very good Penn State secondary. And while Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall has been very good, even surprisingly great, he's not quite Mike Hart. This could be a hell of a game, but I expect the Nittany Lions to come out of it winners.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
North Carolina (1-3) @ #14 Virginia Tech (3-1)
Well, I've heard weirder things than an upset here, what with Tech's anemic offense, but it looks like UNC is having every bit the rebuilding year predicted. If the Tar Heels offense had looked capable against South Florida I might've given them a chance here, but twas not to be.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Duke (1-3) @ #19 Miami (3-1)
It was close last year and all, but if Miami's offensive output was a one-time thing, the defense should be stout enough where Duke isn't going to be able to do much to compete, much less win. Duke can be a competitive team, just not here.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
Notre Dame (0-4) @ #25 Purdue (4-0)
I guess Notre Dame could finally get a win here on turnovers and luck and such, but Purdue's offense alone should put this away easy. Notre Dame could continue to show improvement (although, admittedly, from absolutely horrible lows), or at least be about as good as they were against Michigan State, but really, that probably won't mean much.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Akron (2-2) @ Connecticut (4-0)
Akron's gotten its act together after a performance so bad against Ohio State that I died a little inside, and UConn, despite their 3 inexplicable AP votes, are pretty much a paper tiger. If Connecticut had smashed both Duke and Temple, I'd be much more optimistic for the Huskies, since the Zips are about that level of team, but since Temple should've won that game, my confidence is a bit more wobbly. I'll give the Huskies the nod since they're at home and they frankly have the talent edge, but I'll keep the confidence low since, well, I don't really have much in this team, and really...5-0?
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-4) @ Army (1-3)
Temple's had the weaker schedule, but has looked more impressive, being competitive in all their games except, oddly, against Buffalo. Army's been smoked by two ACC teams, and was competitive in a loss to Akron, but needed OT to beat I-AA Rhode Island. Temple put up 35 points against a MACtastic Bowling Green defense, and Army's shouldn't be much better; I expect the Owls to put up enough points to put this out of reach, even the gap between the teams isn't all that large.
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 2
Buffalo (1-3) @ Ball State (2-2)
Buffalo's actually getting their act together, but Ball State's clearly the superior team here, especially coming off their near-upset at Nebraska. It's a lot like the Temple-Army game, but more of a sure thing, since Ball State's offense was projected to do well before the season; the gap between the teams isn't TOO great, but BSU's likely to put up more than enough points to put this out of reach. The MAC parity alert applies as it almost always does, though.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-3) @ Central Michigan (1-3)
Yech. Two teams that were expected to be MAC contenders but have thus far looked awful, both losing to I-AA teams. CMU has the best win (Toledo) but also the worst loss, as they got blown out last week by North Dakota State. NIU has more momentum due to...beating Idaho, I guess, so I'll give them the edge in what amounts to a crapshoot of disappointment.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
Michigan (2-2) @ Northwestern (2-2)
Northwestern runs a spread offense. Mike Hart should theoretically do enough to give the Wolverines the win, but read that first sentence again. I won't pull the trigger, but I'm very wary.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
12:05 PM
Indiana (3-1) @ Iowa (2-2)
Iowa's win over NIU looks a lot less impressive now, and as a result, so does Iowa's resume as a whole. Even coming off a loss, this game almost feels like Indiana should win it, since Iowa seems somewhat in the doldrums, and Indiana has looked very good thus far, led by QB Kellen Lewis. Still, Iowa needs the win themselves, has more talent, and the homefield advantage. A Hoosier win this time around would be much less surprising than last, but I'll still give Iowa the narrowest of edges.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (3-1) @ #11 South Carolina (3-1)
Well, MSU being 3-1 just kind of happened. Auburn's the obvious big win here, and with how the Tigers have played so far, that's not saying much. While it may not be a MSU-LSU style beating, South Carolina's much better than both Auburn and Mississippi State, and I expect this to be a game that, while it may be competitive, SC should win handily.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Baylor (3-1) @ #24 Texas A&M (3-1)
Baylor, much like Mississippi State, is a surprising 3-1, and has also been fairly untested. A&M, as I've said in other posts, is a much more one-dimensional team this season than they were last, as QB Stephen McGee has been more a runner than a passer. Unlike Miami, however, this should be a team that the Aggies can run on. Really, it's the same story as SC-MSU above; this may be more competitive than expected, but in the end, the favorite home team should win easily.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Mississippi (1-3) @ #9 Georgia (3-1)
Ole Miss's near upset of Florida means I officially have no idea what the hell to make of the Rebels, but Georgia should be able to stop that offense enough where they can win. Probably.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Massachusetts @ #23 Boston College (4-0)
Yawwwwn.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Air Force (3-1) @ Navy (2-2)
Navy's regressed quite a bit from previous year, almost losing to Duke, losing to Ball State, and generally allowing as many points as they're able to run for. Air Force has been a formidable opponent this year, as the 3-1 record and win over TCU shows, and they really should have no problem beating the Midshipmen.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (3-1) @ Kentucky (4-0)
Kentucky will score a lot of points, give up a lot of points, and god only knows, probably somehow make the top ten or something. At the very least, it'll make the eventual destruction at the hands of LSU pretty funny.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
#2 Oklahoma (4-0) @ Colorado (2-2)
CU's making strides, but OU is looking pretty unstoppable against this level of competition, so they should step on the Buffaloes' throats and then move on.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
2:05 PM
Iowa State (1-3) @ Nebraska (3-1)
Nebraska has quite an all-offense, no-defense thing going on; I was originally going to include a snarky comment about how that should beat ISU's no-offense, no-defense gameplan, but the Cyclones have improved their play against Iowa and Toledo. Still, they're not that good, and Nebraska should beat them easy.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Kent State (2-2) @ Ohio (2-2)
The MAC is once again just a tangled mess of confusion. Ohio's done about what was expected, beating Gardner-Webb and LA-Lafayette, losing big to Virginia Tech and close to Wyoming. Kent State, however, is much more confusing, as they beat Iowa State and Delaware State, were not bad in a loss to Kentucky, but promptly lost to Akron last week. Ohio's probably the more consistent bet, but I'll give KSU the benefit of the doubt for the time being, especially since they sizeable outgained the Zips. Honestly, who the hell knows, though.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (1-3) @ Miami of Ohio (1-3)
Miami of Ohio was looking like a decent, competitive team until the bottom fell out against Cincinnati and Colorado. Though really, the key to the game is if Syracuse's offensive improvement were legitimate or just a mirage allowed by that pathetic Louisville D. Having the seen the game, I'll give Cuse the benefit of the doubt, at least for the time being.
My Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 1
Utah State (0-4) @ Utah (1-3)
Utah has pretty much swung between "competitive" and "bad". Utah State, however, has alternated between "bad" and "bad".
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
Kansas State (2-1) @ #6 Texas (4-0)
KSU's somewhat of an unknown quantity, as they had a ten-point loss to Auburn in their opener before beating up on inferior competition. Texas is vulnerable, especially in the secondary, and KSU QB Josh Freeman is good enough to exploit that, so this could very well be an upset in the making. I'm not confident enough in the Wildcats to pull the trigger, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 1
#20 California (4-0) @ #8 Oregon (4-0)
Oregon's defense has shown some regression in recent games, but that Cal secondary remains absolutely horrible and ready to be exploited. While I think Oregon's the better team, and more well-rounded for whatever that's worth, this should be a fun shootout that can go either way. It's almost like the Cal-Tennessee matchup, where both teams have suspect secondaries, with Cal's being worse, but Cal's receiving talent is able to exploit the opposing D just as well, if not better, than the other team. I'm still picking Oregon, though.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (4-0) @ #10 Wisconsin (4-0)
Michigan State's probably good, but not that great. But, wait a second, Wisconsin's probably good, but not that great! What a quandary. Wisconsin has the better defense, though. And the better quarterback. And the better running back, though that one's a closer race. Really, Wisconsin's the better team easily, just not to the extent where an upset is out of the question.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#17 Clemson (4-0) @ Georgia Tech (2-2)
GT's been pretty exposed in their last two games, going from a top-25 team to someone decent on both sides of the ball but really nothing special. Clemson's still shaky - they looked very good except against Wofford of all teams, but there's still that feeling things could fall apart. However, if UVA's Cedric Peerman could run on the GT D, James Davis and CJ Spiller should have a field day for Clemson. And really, if this is Clemson's inexplicable loss of the year, this ain't all that inexplicable.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
Maryland (2-2) @ #22 Rutgers (3-0)
Maryland's a decent team, thus making them the hardest challenge BY FAR for an unproven Rutgers team ranked in the top ten. And really, Rutgers is still mostly a wild-card; that defense should be good, as should Ray Rice, but past that, who really knows. Still, the RU secondary should be able to make Maryland's offense one-dimensional, and while that dimension is fine, it shouldn't good enough to beat what is probably a very good (but not top-ten good) Rutgers team.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
Louisville (2-2) @ NC State (1-3)
Alright, Louisville's GOTTA win this one, right? Lost in the Cardinals' implosion is that Brian Brohm remains really really good, and that should be enough to win here. Then again, while the NC State offense shouldn't be good enough to match Louisville's, Syracuse's was that much worse...
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
UC Davis @ San Jose State (1-3)
SJSU's not THAT bad. Right?
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
UNLV (2-2) @ Nevada (1-2)
Hard one to call, as both teams are pretty much wild cards. Nevada looked good against Nicholls State, but not against BCS competition, while UNLV beat Utah State and smashed the puzzling Utah Utes, but lost to top 25 teams. The Rebels have been more competitive, with the Wisconsin game being the main example, so I'll give them the edge.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (2-2) @ SMU (1-3)
Yawn. Neither team seems to be any great shakes, but...at least UTEP beat New Mexico? Really, SMU's been very disappointing thus far, especially in their loss to Arkansas State, while UTEP's been mediocre. This could easily go either way, but I'll give the edge to the team that's been playing slightly better.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
#12 Alabama (3-1) @ Florida State (2-1)
FSU looks disappointing again. It's possibly the bye week could've helped and they'll be re-energized or meshing better or something, but based on the season so far, Alabama should beat the Noles and could smoke them.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
#21 Hawaii (4-0) @ Idaho (1-3)
Colt Brennan's back for this one, so Idaho's chances go from slim to none. Well, I shouldn't say that, Louisiana Tech played Hawaii close, but still.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Western Kentucky @ Bowling Green (2-1)
BGSU looks like one of the top teams in the MAC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's worth them being the favorite in games like this.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Lafayette (0-4) @ Central Florida (2-1)
UCF's looking like one of the top mid-majors out there. ULL's looking like...Rice. There can be weird results in games like this, but I ain't pickin' em.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
UCLA (3-1) @ Oregon State (2-2)
UCLA QB Ben Olson is starting again, as he returns from injury just as backup Patrick Cowan goes down with an injury himself. So...huh. How about that. Olson's been disappointing, but it'll probably be a wash in this game, since while the Beavers have gone with one QB, Sean Canfield, he's been quite mediocre himself. It's really a very even matchup, since both teams have great running backs (Chris Markey and Yvenson Bernard, respectively) and as for defenses...HAHAHAHAHA, this is a Pac 10 game. UCLA's offense has been more explosive, as the Bruins ran over Washington and dominated Stanford, so I'll give them the edge, because hey, why not. Taste the parity.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
North Texas (0-3) @ Arkansas (1-2)
NT may have a better day than expected with their wacky passtastic offense, but Darren McFadden may outgain the Mean Green all by his lonesome. Yep.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 4
Colorado State (0-3) @ TCU (2-2)
This'll be a fun one, as CSU's probably the best winless team out there. TCU will be without star DE Tommy Blake, but the defense is still the Horned Frogs' strength, and will be matching up with the Rams' excellent duo of QB Caleb Hanie and RB Kyle Bell. This is really one that could go either way - TCU's offense vs. CSU's defense is somewhat of a crapshoot, since who knows how the former will do. I'll give TCU the edge due to homefield, so...there.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
East Carolina (1-3) @ Houston (2-1)
The bloom seems to be off the rose for ECU, as they haven't really impressed since their close loss to Virginia Tech. Houston's offense isn't as excellent as it was with Kevin Kolb, but it's still very good, and that'll do here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Eastern Michigan (2-2) @ Vanderbilt (2-1)
EMU's a competitive MAC team, but, well, no. Not here. Vandy's good, people.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-4) @ Middle Tennessee State (0-4)
Well, MTSU's showing against Louisville now looks that less impressive. Which is...still more than FIU's showed this year, and against a weaker schedule. Ew.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (0-3) @ Troy (2-2)
Don't let that 0-3 fool you, as ULM is one of the Sun Belt contenders along with FAU and Troy. The ULM offense is good enough to win here, but then again, so was OK State's, and Troy took them down. Really, if Troy was an all-defense team, I'd be able to pick ULM, but Troy is a team that's very good on defense that also happens to score a lot of points. An upset is possible, especially in the wacky Sun Belt, but Troy has a large edge on defense, and ULM's edge on offense is slight, if they even have one.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Virginia (3-1)
UVA seems to have their act together, so they should beat a sliding Pitt team easy. Pitt has a chance, since if they have one thing, it's a running game, and frosh QB Pat Bostick looks like a good one, but if the Cavs can put away Georgia Tech, this should be no problem.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Texas Tech (3-1)
I wonder.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
Western Michigan (1-3) @ Toledo (1-3)
Two disappointments, mostly due to units that are actually squaring off; Toledo's passing game has been disappointing, and WMU's veteran secondary hasn't been anywhere near as good as expected. Both teams are actually coming off of momentum-gaining wins, so it's pretty much a crapshoot. Toledo's actually beat a I-A team and have the homefield, but I thought WMU was the best team in the MAC before the season began, so I'll hold out hope for the Broncos.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
UAB (1-2) @ Tulsa (2-1)
UAB's not any good. Tulsa is! NEXT
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
7:05 PM
Sam Houston State @ Oklahoma State (2-2)
One can only imagine the meltdown if the Cowboys lost here. Oh hey, this is the team Rhett Bomar's on. So, wow, there's actually an outside chance, probably. Neat.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#4 USC (3-0) @ Washington (2-2)
Washington keeps looking more and more like they're a year away, so while an upset is possible, it's probably not happening. The UW offense may put up some points, meaning like 17 or so, but USC's firepower should take over one way or another.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
#5 Ohio State (4-0) @ Minnesota (1-3)
If OSU did THAT to Northwestern, you might want to put the children to bed here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Auburn (2-2) @ #7 Florida (4-0)
It could happen - for all their flaws, Auburn's probably better than Ole Miss, who gave the Gators a scare. Brandon Cox, for all his flaws, could manage to do well here, as the Florida secondary remains pretty suspect. Still, Tebow should continue to be a dual threat that brings absolute pain to Florida's opponents and then heals them with his stunning good looks.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ New Mexico State (2-2)
UAPB has a team? NMSU scheduled two I-AAs?
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
8:30 PM
Brigham Young (2-2) @ New Mexico (3-1)
New Mexico could win this, but it's hard to say much about the Lobos - they're pretty good but not great at everything, and relatively unexciting. BYU's offense should carry the Cougs here, though; it's pretty good, they're pretty good, yep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
#18 Arizona State (4-0) @ Stanford (1-2)
Uh oh, an Arizona State ROAD GAME!!!! Stanford's competitive, so this could be closer than expected, or dare I say, even an upset, but ASU's a good enough team where either QB Rudy Carpenter or RB Ryan Torain'll put this one out of reach. Scientific.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Washington State (2-2) @ Arizona (1-3)
Jeez, I don't know. Arizona's still very much a work in progress, while Wazzou's just kind of...there. Arizona still hasn't shown much, so I'll give WSU the benefit of the doubt, even if this is essentially a crapshoot.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
Cincinnati (4-0) @ San Diego State (1-2)
Cincinnati's overrated, and SDSU doesn't seem quite as bad as expected, so there's a very slight upset chance. Cincy should win on talent alone, but also seems like one of those teams destined to get wins they shouldn't due to luck and turnovers, so this should be all Bearcats all the time.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 4
Louisiana Tech (1-2) @ Fresno State (1-2)
Fresno's not all the way back to their top-tier-of-the-WAC ways, but they're much improved from last year's disappointing season. Louisiana Tech isn't.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
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