THE CONSENSUS:
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska (#18 overall - AT: #18, LN: #25, SN: #23, SS: #20, ST: #17)
2. Missouri (#24 overall - AT: #28, LN: #28, SN: #26, SS: #18, ST: #21)
3. Kansas State (#49 overall - AT: #46, LN: #55, SN: #46, SS: --, ST: #50)
4. Kansas (#53 overall - AT: #57, LN: #58, SN: #48, SS: --, ST: #59)
5. Colorado (#68t overall - AT: #61, LN: #74, SN: #80, SS: --, ST: #62)
6. Iowa State (#90 overall - AT: #70, LN: #90, SN: #88, SS: --, ST: #105)
Big 12 South:
1. Texas (#5 overall - AT: #2, LN: #5, SN: #6, SS: #8, ST: #8)
2. Oklahoma (#7 overall - AT: #7, LN: #10, SN: #13, SS: #7, ST: #3)
3. Texas A&M (#21 overall - AT: #23, LN: #18, SN: #35, SS: --, ST: #12)
4. Oklahoma State (#35 overall - AT: #30, LN: #42, SN: #38, SS: --, ST: #29)
5. Texas Tech (#42t overall - AT: #49, LN: #43, SN: #27, SS: --, ST: #49)
6. Baylor (#93 overall - AT: #85, LN: #75, SN: #98, SS: --, ST: #104)
OVERRATED: Nebraska. Somewhat. This was a hard one to pick, since the expectations are more or less in line with mine, but Nebraska's closer to Missouri and A&M, and is probably only second- or third-best out of the three.
UNDERRATED: Colorado. The final record probably won't reflect it due to the schedule, but the Buffaloes should be every bit the team Kansas or even KSU is.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
Big 12 North:
1. Missouri
I'm waffling back and forth, but I give the edge to Missouri as they're a more well-balanced team than Nebraska. I'll get into the defenses later, but since both teams will have high-powered offenses, might as well start there. The Tigers had an offense just outside the top 10 last year, and return more than enough talent to remain at that level. Junior QB Chase Daniel returns after an excellent first year as a starter (3527, 63.5%, 28/10), and he has two of the best tight ends in the country to throw to in all-Big 12 senior Martin Rucker and...all-Big 12 JUNIOR Chase Coffman. And hey, Missouri also returns their two starting WRs, Tommy Saunders and honorable mention all-Big 12 William Franklin. Starting RB Tony Temple also returns, and will be running behind a line that essentially returns four starters, as right guard Monte Wyrick started 7 games last year. Depth at right tackle is comparatively weak, but still, the offensive line should be good enough to allow things to happen. On defense, things are a different story. While the defense was above-average last year, only 5 starters return. The defensive line should be the strength of the D -- both starting DTs return, and junior Stryker Sulak, who was all-Big 12 as a freshman, will start at DE. Linebacker is very untested, although the group has potential. Starting MLB Brock Alexander returns, but past that there's very little experienced depth -- still, there's lots of talent, including projected 2006 starter Van Alexander, who returns from injury, and two top-tier freshmen in Michael Keck and Luke Lambert. The secondary, the strength of the defense last year, should be solid but see some regression - both starting CBs return, including honorable mention all-Big 12 Darnell Terrell, but the Tigers lose both starting safeties. Still, both projected starters are upperclassmen with some limited starting experience. Missouri's a very talented team, especially on offense, and has the schedule to have a big year -- they avoid Texas, and get Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. That leaves at Oklahoma as the one major underdog game, and while I don't think Missouri's at the level of team where they can pull off that upset and go undefeated, there's an outside, 2% or so chance. Still, either way, should be a good season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
2. Nebraska
Might as well address Missouri vs. Nebraska here -- both teams are in a similar situation, returning a lot from a high-powered offense, and bringing back only 5 starters on defense. However, while the two had similar scoring defense numbers, Nebraska was far luckier, allowing about 50 yards per game more than the other teams around their scoring level. So, while I think the Nebraska defense may be more improved, there are two problems:
1) I don't think that improvement will be enough to catch up with a Missouri defense that should at least stay stable, if not improve themselves.
2) The Nebraska defensive line is a bigger question mark than any individual unit on Missouri's D.
And the offenses are a wash, so with THAT out of the way, let's look at said offense, which was one of the best in the nation last year. At QB, Zac Taylor gives way to senior Arizona State transfer Sam Keller, who was a top-flight player as a starter with the Sun Devils. As such, there should be little dropoff from Taylor's 2006 line (3197, 59.6%, 26/8). And hey, while Nebraska loses starting TE Matt Herian, Keller will have two very good receivers to throw to in seniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify. At RB, Marlon Lucky heads up one of the deepest RB corps in the country; while Lucky's disappointed in his first two years, he has the talent to explode at any moment, and again, Nebraska has enough RB depth to kill a horse that is allergic to running back depth. And of course, the key to it all is the offensive line, where the Huskers return 4 starters (although only 3 are projected to start) -- and really, it's Nebraska, so more than enough talent returns to fill the available holes. On defense, there's some stuff to like, especially the linebacking corps, which returns senior starters Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, who were all Big-12 in 2006 and 2nd team all Big-12 in 2005, respectively. Talented if oft-injured Steve Octavien returns in the other spot, and there's also tons of talented depth. The secondary should also be much improved after a disappointing season last year. CB Zackary Bowman's story is a lot like Octavien - more than enough talent to dominate, but often struggling with injuries. Still, the Huskers should easily get by without him, as they have both honorable mention all-Big 12 Cortney Grixby and 2005 starter Andre Jones at the position. The defensive line is easily the biggest weakness, or at least question mark, for Nebraska as a whole. No starters return, and there's very little experience, although there's a very high talent level. Hopefully they'll come together before the game against USC. Nebraska should have another good year, although they may not reach double digit wins. USC is, obviously, the big test on the out of conference schedule, and the Huskers draw both Texas and Missouri at home. Still, they do have some luck, in that they get possible trap games at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Kansas State all in Lincoln. This should be another solid year, and Nebraska has a great shot at repeating as Big 12 North champs.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Kansas State
3-5 is somewhat of a glut, but Kansas State seems to be the most well-rounded of these teams. The Wildcat offense was fairly mediocre last year, but looks to be much improved. Returning QB Josh Freeman was thrown into the fire as a freshman last year, and did about as expected: sone decent numbers (1780 on 51.9% passing) but a horrible 6/15 TD/INT ratio. He has the talent to be much improved this year, and he should be helped by returning honorable mention all-Big 12 WR Jordy Nelson. The improvement of the offensive line should also be a help, as three starters return along with RG Logan Robinson, who started the last four games of 2006. All in all, the offense won't be able to compete with, say, Nebraska or Missouri, but should move up a tier. On defense, things should also steadily improve. The secondary should be the strength - three starters return, including honorable mention all-Big Ten FS Marcus Watts, and the strong safety spot should be easily filled; Andrew Erker, who started for Watts after he was injured, returns, and KSU brings in talented JuCo DB Gary Chandler. The front seven is more a mixed bag - the defensive line should be a strength, returning all-Big 12 DE Ian Campbell as one of three starters, but the linebacking corps is fairly untested. Luckily, the Wildcats get both Kansas and Colorado at home, so the possibility of an upset is diminished. Still, KSU has a number of road games that aren't likely to be won - Nebraska and Texas in-conference, as well as Auburn to start the season; at Oklahoma State should also be a tough one. While KSU is an improving team headed back in the right direction, and while they should be solid this year, I don't see it as a breakout season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. Kansas
Kansas's 6-6 record played mostly to projection last year, mostly on the strength of a very good offense and a defense that was, well, not so much. QB Kerry Meier returns after a decent freshman year (1193, 56.5%, 13/10); while he should improve on those numbers, exactly how much remains to be seen, as the offensive line is somewhat of a question mark. Both starting tackles return, but the middle three spots have been gutted; there's some limited starting experience, but things could go either way - the line may not come together, but there's enough talent where the Jayhawks may not see much of a dropoff. Luckily, KU has the schedule early to where the latter can happen. Still, if the OL doesn't develop, it may be a big concern to the offense, as the running game is also in flux. Jon Cornish led the Big 12 in rushing last year, but departs, leaving talented sophomore Jake Sharp as the starter - while Sharp, as his 6.1 YPC last year shows, can excel, who knows how he'll do if the line is weak. On the flip side, things should be much improved from last year's dismal defense. This is especially true along the secondary, which was horrible last year but returns a surprisingly excellent duo of CBs, in all-Big 12 junior Aqib Talib and sophomore Anthony Webb, who were both playmakers last season. The front seven should also see some improvement, as Kansas returns an experienced LB corps, and a defensive line that features a mix of talent and experience, including 2nd team all-Big 12 DT James McClinton. While the offense may take a step down, the defense should be much-improved, making Kansas a more well-rounded, and probably more improved team this year. While the OOC schedule contains two tough MAC teams, Central Michigan and Toledo, Kansas is still in a position where they can sweep that, and combined with home games against Baylor and Iowa State, sets up the Jayhawks for bowl eligibility. Having both Kansas State and Colorado on the road doesn't give them much of a safety net, however. Still, again, this should be an improved team, and with some luck here and there, one that could easily surprise with a 7 or 8 win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
5. Colorado
While last year was a step back, it wasn't an unmitigated disaster; Colorado played Georgia among other teams close, and should've fallen to about 4-8, rather than 2-10. The first step will be improving an offense that was close to the dregs last year, and luckily, things seem positioned to do just that. While QB Bernard Jackson wasn't a disaster last year, a 49.3% completion percentage suggests there's room for improvement, and he gives way to talented redshirt frosh Cody Hawkins, who also happens to be coach Dan Hawkins's son. The other transition takes place along the offensive line, where CU loses two starters; it's much the same story, as mediocre experience gives way to extremely promising talent, including true frosh Ryan Miller, perhaps the best OL recruit of the 2007 class. Hawkins, both Cody and Dan, will have a number of weapons to work with; honorable mention all-Big 12 RB Hugh Charles returns, as does everyone of note in the receiving corps. The defense should at least remain steady; each unit has losses, but returns enough experience to stay stable. Four of the front seven return from a run D that was the Buffaloes' strength last year, and the three other spots should be filled by players with starting experience. Things should be most improved in the seconday, however; senior all-Big 12 CB Terrence Wheatley is one of two returning starters, and again, experienced depth returns, as well as talented Idaho transfer SS Daniel Dykes. Colorado could be a surprise team, especially in the second year of Hawkins's systems, though the schedule isn't very conducive to success. Three of the first five games are Florida State and Oklahoma at home and Arizona State on the road, and possible upsets against KSU or Texas Tech are also away from Boulder. Colorado could sneak its way into bowl eligibility, as this is a team talented enough to pull off an upset or two, but it doesn't look like the record will match the team's actual improvement.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Iowa State
This will not go well. Neither side of the ball was very good last year, with the offense being slightly better than the defense, and the Cyclones only return 4 starters from the former and 7 from the latter. On offense, QB Bret Meyer returns for his fourth year as starter, and after being the Big 12's best returning QB by default last year, he put up a mediocre season (2546, 56.4%, 12/12). Luckily, he'll be throwing to a top receiver in Todd Blythe, who suffered injuries last year but was all-Big 12 in 2005. Still, past that, WR depth is mediocre. There doesn't look to be much help elsewhere, either. The top two rushers leave from last year's disappointing RB corps, so while things would be poised to improve, the offensive line has also been decimated by graduation, returning only one starter. There's enough upperclassmen and JuCo transfers to patch something together, but between the inexperience and the new system, ehhhh. There should be more improvement on defense, however. Three of four starters return in the secondary, and all-Big 12 Alvin Bowen comes back after leading the NCAA in tackles per game. This looks like a lost year for ISU, as even in the best-case scenario, there isn't much upward mobility. The Cyclones draw both Texas and Oklahoma from the South, but not Baylor, and they also have to play Iowa out of conference. ISU may be able to upset Kansas State or Colorado at home late, but outside of that, the only game they may win after their last two is at Toledo. The Cyclones may not go winless, but if things go as well as they can, they'll probably top out at last year's 4-8 record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma
Oh, it's close. Both OU and Texas could've gone undefeated last year, and they were both statistically similar (Texas a notch better on offense, Oklahoma the same on defense), but I give the edge to the Sooners. I actually may like the OU offense ever-so-slightly better, as they return eight starters and those losses may more or less be washes. Redshirt frosh Sam Bradford was recently announced as the starter, and while conventional wisdom says he will see a drop from departing Paul Thompson's stats (2667, 60.7%, 22/11), Thompson was forced into action in August due to suspension. So, while there may be a slight drop-off, it shouldn't be as much as you'd think. Similarly, star RB and top-10 draft pick Adrian Peterson has departed, but OU has the 1-2 punch to replace him: senior Allen Patrick, who played well while Peterson was injured, and redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray, who has been touted as, well, the next Adrian Peterson. They'll be running behind a top-tier offensive line, which returns four starters and a heckuva lot of talent, including JuCo stud Phil Loadholt. And hey, just for good measure, everyone returns in the receiving corps, including 2nd team all-Big 12 WR Malcolm Kelly and two honorable mention TEs in Joe Jon Finley and Brody Eldridge. And, of course, the OU defense should be stout once again. The front seven replaces a lot, so that may be the weakness early on, but as you'd expect, the level of talent here, especially at linebacker and DT, is elite enough where things should be fine. And, luckily, OU also returns what is probably the best secondary in the nation, as all four starters return, including all-Big 12 SS Reggie Smith, and there's tons of experienced depth. It should be another elite-level year for OU, and while there's tests at home against Miami, Missouri, and Texas A&M, the Sooners' national title hopes should once again come down to the game with Texas.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Texas
Don't hurt me, Longhorns fans. It's close between OU and Texas, but minor questions along the o-line and especially concerns with the secondary for Texas made me put them here. Might as well start with that offensive line, as it's really the one point of concern on the offense, if it even is one. Since sophomore Adam Ulatoski started 7 games last year, the Longhorns essentially return 3 starters. Everyone has talent, but has spent most of their career as a 2nd stringer - this is fine for new center Dallas Griffin, since he's a senior, but it may be more of a concern at left guard, where everyone is an underclassman. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the line should be more than fine. Returning QB Colt McCoy did way better than anyone expected as a redshirt freshman (2570, 68.2%, 29/7), and that's with some injuries at the end of the year. And he'll have some weapons too, with all-Big 12 WR Limas Sweed heading an elite receiving corps, and 2nd team all-Big 12 RB Jamaal Charles returning for what should be an improvement over last year's 831 yard/7 TD season. On defense, the front seven should be among the best in the nation, as everyone returns except for the DEs, including DT Frank Okam, who's one of the top few in the nation. And hey, those DEs are no slouches, as both Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis have put up impressive numbers in the action they've seen. The secondary is easily the biggest question mark for the team as a whole. The safeties should be fine - SS Marcus Griffin is the lone returning starter, and new FS Drew Kelson is a senior with some starting experience. The CBs are another story, however: there's lots of talent, obviously, but almost nothing in terms of experience, even with one or two upperclassmen. The pass defense will probably be the key to Texas's season, especially since Texas should be so stout against the run that teams will throw early and often. There's not much hidden insight or anything I can give into Texas's season as a whole. Texas is an obvious national title contender, and Oklahoma is the obvious big game that matters. Texas gets upset hopefuls TCU and Nebraska at home, leaving late road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M the only looming traps if the Longhorns get by OU. Another season, most likely another set of double-digit W's.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Texas A&M
Since the near-upset at the hands of Army is the first thought that comes to mind when I think of "2006 Aggies", it's surprising that TAMU was 6 total points away from being undefeated in the regular season. If only the Aggies were returning more on defense, then I might think about putting them higher. Might as well start with the offense, where TAMU has a pretty loaded backfield. Junior Stephen McGee had a very underrated year last season, throwing for 2295 and a 12/2 TD/INT ratio on 62% passing. And his TD count might've been higher if not for touchdown machine Jorvorskie Lane, who had 19 scores on the ground. And hey! He might not even be the best back on the team, as TAMU also returns sophomore Mike Goodson, who led the team with 929 rushing yards on an outstanding 6.7 yards per carry. And things should only improve behind an elite offensive line that returns four top-tier starters; the fifth should be senior guard Chris Yoder, who actually started as a freshman. And hey, junior TE Martellus Bennett is one of the best out there too. On defense, the defensive line should be a strength, as DE Chris Harrington and DT Red Bryant are arguably the Aggies' best players on that side of the ball. Since A&M switched to a 4-2-5 last year, they only have two linebackers, but that unit should be fairly well off, too; starter Misi Tupe returns alongside Mark Dodge, who actually earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors as a part time starter. The secondary should do fairly well - having five starters spreads the depth a bit thin, but A&M does return three starters. If A&M had a luckier schedule, they could be a surprise national title contender, and while they get Texas at home to end the season, they have one too many tough road games in Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Still, TAMU has the talent level (one probably higher than the two North teams) to at least split those, and it looks like this should be a good enough season to save Dennis Franchione's job.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a dangerous trio of players at the skill positions. QB Bobby Reid returns after a solid first year as starter (2266, 55.4%, 24/11); while his stats may not match his reputation just yet, that may change this season, especially since he'll be throwing to UNC transfer and last year's Big 12 Newcomer Of The Year in Adarius Bowman. And at RB, OSU returns talented sophomore Keith Toston and starter Dantrell Savage, who ran for 820 yards on 6.5 yards per carry when not injured. The offensive line should once again be solid -- three starters return, and while both the depth at guard is shaky, things should remain around last year's level. The defense should see some noticeable improvement. Every starter returns from both the secondary and the linebacking corps, including QB-turned-FS Donovan Woods and top CB Martel Van Zant (he's deaf!). And while the defensive line officially returns no starters, it should be fairly well off. The talent level is high, and both DEs might as well be returning starters; Nathan Peterson earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors in limited action last year, and Marque Fountain has only seen part-time starting duty due to constant struggles with injury. All in all, OK State should be one a much improved team, and much more well-rounded than their OFFENSETASTIC! 2006, although they may struggle to turn that into something palpable. They have OU, A&M, Nebraska, and an OOC game against Georgia all on the road, which greatly diminishes the chance of an upset. Still, this is a team that can torch an opponent with secondary issues, and they get Texas at home, so there is the chance of an upset there. It should be another bowl-eligible season, easy, and in a different year a team like this might see some noticeable upward mobility, but with what other teams return, OSU may just have to settle for closing the gap.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Texas Tech
Texas Tech's defense was surprisingly fine last year, but only 5 starters return, so that's probably out the window for 2007. So, you know what to expect, a lot of passing yards on offense, and on defense, prayer. TTU's strength this year is their backfield; RB Shannon Woods was all-Big 12 last year, and Graham Harrell is the first returning starter here in five years. Of course, he's looking to build on the usual insane Red Raiders QB stat line: 4555, 66.8%, 38/11. Two of the four starting WRs also return, but the main concern should be the O-line, where only honorable mention all-Big 12 left tackle Louis Vasquez returns. The talent level's enough where things should be solid, but still, it should be comparatively rough going. On defense, at least three of four starters return in the secondary, led by SS Joe Garcia. In the front seven, however, there's only two starters back. While the LB corps has a solid mix of some experience and some talent, the defensive line should be more of a concern; there's DE Jake Ratliff, who was honorable mention all-Big 12 last year, but past that, it's almost exclusively underclassmen. It should be a down year for Texas Tech - the offensive line is a big question mark, and the defense should regress quite a bit from last year. Luckily, TTU has a weak out of conference schedule, and they draw both Iowa State and Colorado at home from the North. That, plus Baylor, gives them a safety net for bowl eligibility, but past that, there's doesn't seem to be much upward potential.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Baylor
Poor Baylor. While their 4-8 record was close to projection, they weren't very good on the whole statistically last year, and this season looks like a rebuilding one. Whoever the starter at QB is (the favorite seems to be Kent State transfer Michael Machen), at least three of Baylor's four returning starters on offense are along the line. Sophomore WR David Gettis was a high-talent recruit; he may provide a bright spot, as his 20.5 yards per his 4 receptions showed. While Baylor's in the second year of a spread offense, the talent losses will probably prevent the Bears from reaping the benefits; at the very least, the running game should be able to improve from dead last in America. Defense is slightly better - five of the front seven return, with the bright spot being 2nd team all-Big 12 LB Joe Pawelek. The secondary is much more of a mixed bag; while both starting safeties return, the CB position mostly have players who haven't done much in their playing time. While the Bears should be improved on defense somewhat, it looks like a hapless year. Baylor should still win 3 games based on their weak OOC schedule, but without drawing Iowa State from the North, their best chance at a conference win looks to be at home against Colorado, where their chances are still fairly slim.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
Monday, August 27, 2007
Saturday, August 25, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE ACC
THE CONSENSUS:
ACC Atlantic:
1. Florida State (#14 overall - AT: #26, LN: #21, SN: #11, SS: --, ST: #7)
2. Boston College (#30t overall - AT: #27, LN: #24, SN: #28, SS: -- , ST: #41)
3. Wake Forest (#39 overall - AT: #32, LN: #20, SN: #45, SS: --, ST: #51)
4. Clemson (#45 overall - AT: #51, LN: #33, SN: #44, SS: #22, ST: #45)
5. Maryland (#50 overall - AT: #50, LN: #56, SN: #47, SS: --, ST: #48)
6. NC State (#55 overall - AT: #65, LN: #53, SN: #70, SS: --, ST: #46)
ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech (#10 overall - AT: #9, LN: #8, SN: #7, SS: #9, ST: #13)
2. Miami (#29 overall - AT: #24, LN: #38, SN: #30, SS: --, ST: #24)
3. Georgia Tech (#30t overall - AT: #14, LN: #31, SN: #37, SS: --, ST: #38)
4. Virginia (#44 overall - AT: #54, LN: #37, SN: #43, SS: --, ST: #37)
5. North Carolina (#81 overall - AT: #77, LN: #80, SN: #84, SS: --, ST: #85)
6. Duke (#104 overall - AT: #98, LN: #98, SN: #107, SS: --, ST: #101)
OVERRATED: Boston College. There's no astoundingly overrated team, but BC's the best choice here. The talent's there, but the Eagles were fairly lucky last year, and changing such proven offensive schemes, especially along the line, seems like a bad idea.
UNDERRATED: Miami. I almost went with Clemson, but Florida State seems to be the sexy rebound pick, and Miami's in just as good a situation, if not better. And statistically, Miami isn't very far behind Virginia Tech at all.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
ACC Atlantic:
1. Florida State
There's no revelation that FSU projected out to a 10-win team last year or anything - FSU was in fact about 7, mayyybe 8 win team last year, but just happened to be in the same division as three extremely lucky teams. Still, the Seminoles should be a much-improved, if not elite, team this year, partially due to not only getting rid of horrible OC Jeff Bowden, but bringing in Jimbo Fisher from LSU to replace him. Whichever QB winds up starting, be it Drew Weatherford (2154 yards, 55.7%, 12/11) or Xavier Lee (885, 51.2, 7/5), should see improved stats from last year, and will have two returning starters to throw to: senior De'Cody Fagg and 6'6" touchdown machine Greg Carr. The running game loses Lorenzo Booker, but returns #2 back Antone Smith, as well as FB Joe Surratt, who led the team in rushing touchdowns. They'll be running behind a line that returns three starters and should be much improved - not only did it disappoint last year, but the Noles bring in OL coach Rick Trickett, who had some excellent offensive lines at West Virginia. On defense, things should also be much improved - the defense was #15 in the country in yardage, but were somewhat unlucky as far as the scoring allowed. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, led by 2nd team all-ACC DT Andre Fluellen; however, the LB corps is not nearly as experienced, as the Noles return only starting OLB Geno Hayes and a bunch of players who missed the majority of last season with injuries. Still, much like the offensive line, FSU brings back ex-NC State coach Chuck Amato as LB coach, so the linebackers should both do well and be luckier with injuries this season. The secondary was, statistically, the weakness of the defense last year, but should now be the strength. All four starters return, including strong safety Myron Rolle, who could very well be the best sophomore in the country at any position. I'm not ready to call the Seminoles a surprise national title contender, but between underperformance last year (not statistically, but compared to the talent level), improvement due to experience, and one hell of a coaching staff, FSU should be much improved. One problem may be the schedule, as Florida State gets Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Florida on the road, as well playing Alabama in Jacksonville and hosting their rival that should also be much improved, Miami. Florida State should at least see an improvement to 8 or 9 wins, though, and could run roughshod over the ACC Atlantic.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Clemson
The best team in the absolute mess that was the ACC last year? The Clemson Tigers, and quite easily. The only teams to finish top-15 in both scoring offense and defense? LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. Top-15 in both yardage offense and defense? Ohio State, Boise State, and Clemson. This was just a snakebit team against BC and Maryland, and one that could've easily beaten South Carolina to give them 11 wins. Still, Clemson's suffered some heavy losses to graduation, so that doesn't matter as much as it could've. Clemson sees a new QB take over in junior Cullen Harper - while this may seem like a step down, last year also saw a first-year starter in senior Will Proctor, so Harper should at least match his line of 2353 yards on 60.2% passing and a 16/11 TD/INT ratio. While the WR corps should be down due to the loss of #3 Thomas Hunter and NFL-talent #1 Chansi Stuckey, Harper should be helped by the continued improvement of one of the best RB duos in the country, James Davis and CJ Spiller. If not the WRs, the offensive line is the biggest concern - all-ACC left tackle Barry Richardson returns, but only one other part-time starter in left guard Chris McDuffie. Still, the Tigers at least return lots of players who have taken snaps, so while the OL should definitely regress, the cupboard isn't completely bare. All in all, the offense should regress, but remain above-average, especially due to having Davis, Spiller, and Richardson; and really, despite all the losses, the OL situation is the only real change from last year - if the line gets their act together, the offense could perform in the top-15 or 20 again. On defense, there's also a lot to like. While the defensive line loses #4 overall pick DE Gaines Adams, they replace him with sophomore Ricky Sapp, a top-tier defensive recruit. The linebackers essentially return all three starters, as '05 starting OLB Tramaine Billie returns alongside Nick Watkins and Antonio Clay. The secondary was the strength of the defense last year, and while the Tigers lose both starting CBs, they should still be quite above-average. Both starting safeties return, and while soph CBs Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, both gained experience last year, with Butler even tying for the team lead in INTs without even starting. All in all, the key with Clemson is the offensive line - otherwise, things are fairly comparable to last year, where, again, Clemson projected out to a ten-win team. Unfortunately, Clemson starts the season off with Florida State, which looks like a likely loss - FSU's progression will be more coaching-related, while Clemson's is due to losing talent, which suggests Florida State should be readier earlier. Outside of that, home against Virginia Tech, and at South Carolina, it looks like a fairly smooth ride for Clemson through the season, although the Tigers may be vulnerable to an upset early (at NC State and at Georgia Tech are calling to me here). Still, things look at about the same level as last year, and as a result, Clemson should have a similar record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. NC State
3-5 are insanely close, as there's lots of things to both love and hate about each team. NC State had fairly bad luck last year, going 3-9 but projecting to 5-7, and while that bounceback alone might put them up here (Wake, BC, and Maryland will all regress horribly), the hiring of Tom O'Brien was an absolute coup. The obvious improvement will be along the offensive line, where, while three starters are lost, the Wolfpack return the rest of the top 10; O'Brien's been an offensive line-crafting machine at BC, so life should be much easier for the backfield. Speaking of, QB play should be much improved, whether the starter is Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck or returning starter Dan Evans, who couldn't do much worse (1843 yards, 53.1%, 6/11 TD/INT). The offensive line improvement should be even better news for the RB duo of Andre Brown and Toney Baker, two juniors with NFL talent. Even with the loss of top TE Anthony Hill for the season, if the offensive line improves as expected, this looks to be one of the most improved offenses in the nation, going from below-average to, at least, in the upper half of the nation. The defense is somewhat less of a sure thing. On the plus side, the defense was about average last year, but unlucky in terms of scoring vs. yardage allowed. Also, as usual, NC State has a loaded D-line, returning three of four starters, including stud DT DeMario Pressley. The main reason for skepticism is the hiring of new DC Mike Archer - Archer did well as the Pittsburgh Steelers LB coach from '96 to '02, but he's spent the last few years overseeing an absolutely porous Kentucky defense. Still, Kentucky does have all-SEC linebacker Wesley Woodyard, so maybe Archer only has magic working with the LBs; and that's actually good news, since that's the least experienced unit on the team. The secondary only returns two starters, but there's experience past that -- new SS DaJuan Morgan led the team in INTs last year and is the team's returning tackler, despite only one start last year. Though there are the questions on defense, this still looks like a team that will rebound, mostly due to offense and coaching. Outside of Louisville, the Wolfpack has a winnable OOC slate, though they have the bad fortune of getting both BC and Wake Forest on the road. Still, if NC State can win one of those two, or get an upset elsewhere on the ACC slate, they should make it to bowl eligibility. Either way, things are looking up.
THE REALM OF POSSIBLITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
4. Boston College
BC was 10-3 last year, and returns 15 starters. Then why the low projection?
a) BC projected out to only a 6-7 win last year.
b) Head coach Tom O'Brien has left for NC State.
c) New coach Jeff Jagodzinski is apparently changing the offensive schemes, including the blocking of the offensive line, which has been a strength of BC for years.
The offense was decently above-average last year, and there's a lot to like in terms of returning talent, led by all-ACC QB Matt Ryan, who had 2942 yards on 61.6% passing and a 15/10 TD/INT ratio last year. Also returning are RBs LV Whitworth and Andre Callender, who will enter their fourth year splitting the load, and honestly, it feels like even longer. The point of interest, as mentioned above, will be the offensive line - the Eagles lose two starters that were, as usual, NFL draft picks, but return two of the best in the conference in left tackle Gosder Cherilus and left guard Ryan Poles. The offense is almost a complete crapshoot, dependent on how quickly they pick up the new schemes - there's the talent here to be great, but screwing with an offensive line that's always been successful just screams "horrible idea that will make everyone cry." The defense was fairly lucky last season - they were a top-15 scoring defense while only being above-average in terms of yardage. And there's actually a lot to like - if not for injured star LB Brian Toal missing the season, BC would be returning the entire starting front seven, which was excellent against the run last season. In the secondary, at least two positions will be set, as free safety Jamie Silva and 2nd team all-ACC CB DeJuan Tribble both return. There's some returning experience though, so things aren't completely dire otherwise. All in all, this projection may seem a bit low, but remember, this was a close to .500 team last year, and they now have a fairly unproven head coach. Still, it shouldn't be a lost season, as BC luckily gets both Wake and NC State at home, and doesn't have their toughest games (at Virginia Tech and Clemson, vs. FSU and Miami) until late in the season. It should be a down year, but there's easily enough talent here to make it to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
5. Wake Forest
Wake Forest was a nice story last year. Wake Forest was also horribly lucky last year. Wake outperformed their projected record by 5 wins, the second-highest margin in the nation, and, interestingly, in their own division last year. Almost every starter returns on offense, but the offense last year wasn't that great - while they were below-average but passable in terms of scoring, as far as yardage goes, they were really quite bad. Quite very bad. QB Riley Skinner returns after becoming an out-of-nowhere 2nd team all-ACC selection, although his line (171/260, 65.8%, 9/5 TD/INT) was fine if not amazingly impressive. After injuries decimated last year's running back corps, the top 6 rushers all return, although leading rusher Kenneth Moore returns to his natural position of wide receiver. The offensive line should be the strength of the offense - four starters return, including all-ACC center Steve Justice, and the fifth spot will be taken by Matthew Brim, who started in '04 and '05. The offense should be improved, both due to experience and health, but should only be about passable. The defense, the strength of the team, should take a few steps back, however. Firstly, the defense was lucky, similar to BC but more extreme - the Demon Deacons finished in the top 10 in scoring defense, extremely high compared to just fairly above-average yardage numbers. Despite losing all-ACC middle linebacker Jon Abbate, the run defense should still be fine - it was fairly good, and Wake returns 5 of 7 starters. The secondary is another story - the pass defense was quite poor, and past returning strong safety Kevin Patterson, things are...mediocre. 2005 starting CB Alphonso Smith will man one of the two slots, and free safety Chip Vaughn had some decent tackle numbers last year, but this isn't a unit that inspires confidence. Again, while Wake was a great story, they look to regress by about half their wins - they luckily draw both Duke and UNC from the Coastal division, but unluckily have winnable games against Navy, BC, and Vanderbilt on the road. Wake's not going to completely implode -- they should continue to be a fine team, but they may have to pull off an upset or two to make it into a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Maryland
The luckiest team in the country last year, the Terps won 8 regular season games despite outgaining only one team: William & Mary. Expectations should thus be tempered for Maryland, even though there is some returning talent to like. At the head of the line is the receiving corps, which returns two amazingly fast starters - Danny Oquendo and 2nd team all-ACC Darrius Heyward-Bey. In fact, everyone with at least 10 receptions returns from last season, so this should be one of the best WR units in the conference. Who's throwing to them is a different matter, as two-year starter Sam Hollenbach departs, and looks to be succeeded by Florida transfer Josh Portis. Portis is a high-talent player, so his final numbers may look good-but-not-great like Hollenbach's (2371, 61.9%, 15/11), but there should be some rough patches early. Top two rushers Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore return for their senior years, but the running game may not be much improved, as the offensive line was hurt by left tackle Jared Gaither leaving for the NFL supplemental draft. That leaves only two starters, including 2nd team all-ACC guard Andrew Crummey. While there's experience returning to fill the now-open spots, things look somewhat mediocre. On the defensive side, four of the front seven return; the good news is that include includes 2nd team all-ACC LB Erin Henderson. The bad news is that this was one of the worst run defenses in the NCAA last season. Still, things should improve, if only through Henderson's maturation. Things in the secondary look better, as senior starters Isaiah Gardner and Chris Varner return at CB and SS, respectively. New FS JJ Justice also tied Henderson for the team lead with 2 INT. All in all, Maryland should be improved -- it's just that they're improving from a 3 or so win team than an 8-win one. Unfortunately, Maryland gets NC State and Wake on the road, diminishing the chances of an upset, but does get BC at home. The only probable wins look like Villanova, at FIU, and at UNC, as Maryland doesn't draw Duke from the Coastal, but this is a wholly decent team that I could see sneaking into bowl eligibility with some luck. Hell, they did it last year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-4 conference wins
ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech played to their record last year -- 10-2 in the regular season vs. 9-3 projected, but that was almost all on the strength of the #1 defense in the country, as the offense was one of the luckiest in the nation when it came to scoring vs. yardage. Sean Glennon returns at QB after a mediocre year (2191, 56.3%, 11/11), but he should improve, especially since he returns top WRs Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan. RB Branden Ore also returns, but he had a much better season than Glennon, gaining all-ACC honors on the strength of 1137 yards and 16 TD. He should also improve, as the offensive line is also moving upward, returning 3 starters, including 2nd team all-ACC tackle Duane Brown, and 2 others with starting experience. There's really not much to say about the defense, since the Hokies return 8 starters, and it should be, once again, threatening for top honors in the nation. There are three outstanding duos on this side of the ball -- senior DTs Carlton Powell and Barry Booker, one of the best CB duos in the country in juniors Brandon Flowers (3rd-team All-American) and Macho Harris, and outstanding senior linebackers Vince Hall (1st team all-ACC) and Xavier Adibi (2nd team all-ACC). This defense will be very good. Very great. Very EXCELLENT. Still, while I think VT has an elite defense, I don't see them as an elite-level team because of the offense, although that should improve. Still, Virginia Tech is a talented enough team, especially, again, on defense, where they may be able to sweep the ACC. Getting Florida State and Miami at home helps quite a bit towards that, too. The key game, obviously, is at LSU in the second game of the season - if Tech pulls off the upset, they can go undefeated. While it should be a great season for the Hokies, the ACC won't be a complete sinch - FSU should be much improved through better coaching, and there's not as big a gap as you'd think between VT and the next team on this list.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Miami
Uh oh, they're back. Though they may not have ever really left - this team projected out to about 8 wins last year, and five of their six losses were by ten points or less. Miami was a less extreme version of Virginia Tech last year - their offense was slightly better, and their defense was #5 in yardage to VT's #1. The only real difference was Virginia Tech was somehow lucky enough to score 6.5 more points per game. On offense, the big question mark will be the QB position; Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman combined for 2527 yards and a mediocre 15/15 TD/INT ratio, with Wright seeing most of the snaps. A starter hasn't been named, but the talent's there for greatly improved numbers. They'll be helped by a greatly improved offensive line, which returns four starters, including honorable mention all-ACC guard Derrick Morse, and the depth chart is stacked with the type of talent you'd expect at Miami. Last year's top running back returns in sophomore Javarris James, though he'll be threatened by frosh Graig Cooper; this is another position that has too much talent not to rebound, as the Canes averaged only a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. On the defensive side, the third-best rushing defense in the nation returns four of the front seven, led by all-ACC DE/6'8" freak of nature/future top draft pick Calais Campbell. Again, Miami's a team that constantly reloads with talent, so the run defense should once again be above-average, but another top 3 finish may be a bit of a stretch. The secondary, above-average but still the relative weakness last year, should be quite improved - three starters return, and new starting SS Lovon Ponder has enough experience that he might as well be considered a fourth. Miami, again, is in very much the same situation as Virginia Tech, returning an elite defense and a disappointing offense that should improve. Miami may have the better offense this year, especially with Virginia Tech's chances for regression, but the defense is the key, and I think Virginia Tech should remain elite, while Miami may regress slightly, but should remain easily above-average. Still, this should be quite the rebound year for Miami, though unfortunately they have three hellish road games at Oklahoma, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. Miami has the talent to win one, maybe even two, but having all three on the road prevents them from, in my mind, being surprise national title contenders.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Georgia Tech
Shockingly for a Chan Gailey team, Georgia Tech projected out to a 7-win team, overperforming that by two wins. The big news for this team is the loss of WR Calvin Johnson, who was probably the best player in college football last year. While this leaves James Johnson as the only receiver who's really done anything, Calvin's loss may be negated by the loss of four-year starting QB Reggie Ball, who had a decent 20/14 TD/INT ratio last year, but his usual mind-bogglingly low 44.4% completion percentage. Junior Taylor Bennett takes over for Ball, and had decent numbers in limited action last year: 523 yards, 60.3% with a 5/2 ratio. Luckily for Bennett, GT also returns pretty much everyone of note outside the receiving corps: ACC-leading rusher Tashard Choice returns behind an improved offensive line, which returns four starters, including three seniors and honorable mention all-ACC left tackle Andrew Gardner. The defense should once again be top-20 or better, as GT returns a lot of talent there as well. While the defensive line loses all-ACC DT Joe Anoai, his replacement, Vance Walker, has starting experience, and GT returns the other three starters. The secondary has a similar situation - they only lose starting CB Kenny Scott, but his replacement, Jahi Word-Daniels, also has starting experience, and Tech has one of the best safety duos out there in Djay Jones and all-ACC strong safety Jamal Lewis. The linebacking corps also has one open spot, although there's much less experienced depth than the other two units - still, the unit may be home to Tech's best player - 2nd team all-ACC MLB Philip Wheeler. And a rare mention of special teams -- senior punter Durant Brooks is probably the best in the nation. Georgia Tech luckily gets ND kicking off the year, so that should be a win, but the Yellow Jackets get Miami and the swing game with Virginia on the road, and have to deal with Virginia Tech and Georgia late in the year at home. Once again, GT should be a solidly above-average team, although the schedule may result in another 7 or so-win season; the offense should improve, and the defense should remain in the top tier.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. Virginia
Virginia's been bandied about somewhat as a surprise team, and my first instinct was that I didn't see it. But upon closer inspection, there's a lot to like. Admittedly, the offense was among the worst in the nation last season, but there's a lot of indicators for improvement on that side of the ball. Firstly, all five starters return on the offensive line, led by talented seniors C Jordy Lipsey and RG Ian-Yates Cunningham, along with junior and HS uber-recruit left tackle Eugene Monroe. That should lead to a huge improvement for a running game that didn't crack 100 yards/game last year. It's also good news for sophomore QB Jameel Sewell, who was thrown to the wolves last year and put up numbers that were neither that good nor a complete disaster: 1342 yards, 57.9%, 5/6 TD/INT. Still, he should be one of many ACC QBs who see dramatic improvement over their results from last year. Despite reasons for optimism on offense, the defense is still the star of the show. Virginia had the #21 defense last year, and returns an astounding 10 of 11 starters, losing only 2nd team all-ACC CB Marcus Hamilton. The pass defense was surprisingly great at #18 last season, and should remain at that level if not improve, as Hamilton's spot looks to be filled by Mike Brown, who has had sporadic starting experience over the last two seasons. The front seven, which was also above-average last year, obviously should also improve by returning all seven starters, led by 2nd team all-ACC DE/Howie's son Chris Long. With this amount of returning talent there's not much to say -- they were very good last year, and should continue to be that good, if not better! Wow. Virginia may not be an elite team next year, if only because there's so much the offense can improve by, but they may have a Rutgers-esque 9 or 10 win season with a fairly weak schedule. Their closest peer is Georgia Tech, who they get at home, and the Cavs are lucky enough to avoid both Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic division. Amazingly, Virginia may be 10-0 heading into their last two games, at Miami, and at home against Virginia Tech. And even if things go poorly and Virginia doesn't perform up to expectations, that schedule should at least guarantee a return to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. North Carolina
UNC projected out to a 4-5 win team last year, which is amazing when you look at how horrible their final yardage statistics were -- still, the Heels had winnable games against Rutgers and Wake Forest, both of which would've had them meet that 5-win projection. Still, last year pretty much doesn't matter, as only 9 starters return, one of which is now ex-QB The Joe Dailey Interception Experience, who moves to receiver. Luckily, three of the four returning starters on offense are along the offensive line. That may lead to some improvement for the offense as a whole - talented WR Hakeem Nicks returns, and new QB and redshirt freshman TJ Yates is unproven, but can only improve on last year's numbers (2156, ~51%, 11/18 ratio). The RB corps is also unproven but highly talented, led by sophomore and member of the NCAA all-name team Richie Rich. The defense should have a strong line, but not much else. DE Hilee Taylor and DT Kentwan Balmer return along said line, and uber-recruit DT Marvin Austin should find a place soon enough, but past that the only real standouts are senior OLB Durell Mapp and junior FS Trimane Goddard, an '05 starter who returns from injury. Really, for the moment, this isn't a much better team than Duke, as the Blue Devils return more experience. Still, UNC can reload with a higher level of talent, and the gap is only getting larger with Butch Davis's recruiting. UNC gets Maryland and Duke at home, which are probably the two most winnable conference games, but the schedule looks too tough for bowl eligibility to be possible. Watch out in 2008, though.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-5 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Duke
Duke wasn't THAT awful last year -- hell, they had winnable games against Richmond, UNC, Wake, and even Miami. Still, on a statistical level, they were near the bottom on both offense and defense, and while the entire starting offense returns, the defense doesn't have near that luxury. Anytime all five starter return on the line, an offense should be improved, and Duke is no exception -- especially since a surprisingly talented stable of running backs suffered injuries last year, and soph QB Thaddeus Lewis should be much-improved after being thrown to the wolves last year due to their starter's suspension. On defense, at least the returning starters are mostly good ones. Sophomore DT Vince Oghobaase may be Duke's best recruit ever, MLB Mike Tauiliili was a freshman All-American in 2005, and FS Chris Davis and DE Patrick Bailey are both two-year starters. Starting SS Adrian Aye-Darko also returns, but the secondary should be the defense's weakness, as the CB position is especially up for grabs. Duke should be much improved, and should manage a win or two somewhere along the line. Still, the Blue Devils don't have a I-AA opponent this year, and of the winnable games (UNC, UConn, Northwestern, even Navy), only Connecticut's at home. I'd like to call for a surprise season for Duke, since they're not really as bad as advertised, and they are a team returning their entire offense, but the schedule's too tough to avoid another dire season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
ACC Atlantic:
1. Florida State (#14 overall - AT: #26, LN: #21, SN: #11, SS: --, ST: #7)
2. Boston College (#30t overall - AT: #27, LN: #24, SN: #28, SS: -- , ST: #41)
3. Wake Forest (#39 overall - AT: #32, LN: #20, SN: #45, SS: --, ST: #51)
4. Clemson (#45 overall - AT: #51, LN: #33, SN: #44, SS: #22, ST: #45)
5. Maryland (#50 overall - AT: #50, LN: #56, SN: #47, SS: --, ST: #48)
6. NC State (#55 overall - AT: #65, LN: #53, SN: #70, SS: --, ST: #46)
ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech (#10 overall - AT: #9, LN: #8, SN: #7, SS: #9, ST: #13)
2. Miami (#29 overall - AT: #24, LN: #38, SN: #30, SS: --, ST: #24)
3. Georgia Tech (#30t overall - AT: #14, LN: #31, SN: #37, SS: --, ST: #38)
4. Virginia (#44 overall - AT: #54, LN: #37, SN: #43, SS: --, ST: #37)
5. North Carolina (#81 overall - AT: #77, LN: #80, SN: #84, SS: --, ST: #85)
6. Duke (#104 overall - AT: #98, LN: #98, SN: #107, SS: --, ST: #101)
OVERRATED: Boston College. There's no astoundingly overrated team, but BC's the best choice here. The talent's there, but the Eagles were fairly lucky last year, and changing such proven offensive schemes, especially along the line, seems like a bad idea.
UNDERRATED: Miami. I almost went with Clemson, but Florida State seems to be the sexy rebound pick, and Miami's in just as good a situation, if not better. And statistically, Miami isn't very far behind Virginia Tech at all.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
ACC Atlantic:
1. Florida State
There's no revelation that FSU projected out to a 10-win team last year or anything - FSU was in fact about 7, mayyybe 8 win team last year, but just happened to be in the same division as three extremely lucky teams. Still, the Seminoles should be a much-improved, if not elite, team this year, partially due to not only getting rid of horrible OC Jeff Bowden, but bringing in Jimbo Fisher from LSU to replace him. Whichever QB winds up starting, be it Drew Weatherford (2154 yards, 55.7%, 12/11) or Xavier Lee (885, 51.2, 7/5), should see improved stats from last year, and will have two returning starters to throw to: senior De'Cody Fagg and 6'6" touchdown machine Greg Carr. The running game loses Lorenzo Booker, but returns #2 back Antone Smith, as well as FB Joe Surratt, who led the team in rushing touchdowns. They'll be running behind a line that returns three starters and should be much improved - not only did it disappoint last year, but the Noles bring in OL coach Rick Trickett, who had some excellent offensive lines at West Virginia. On defense, things should also be much improved - the defense was #15 in the country in yardage, but were somewhat unlucky as far as the scoring allowed. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, led by 2nd team all-ACC DT Andre Fluellen; however, the LB corps is not nearly as experienced, as the Noles return only starting OLB Geno Hayes and a bunch of players who missed the majority of last season with injuries. Still, much like the offensive line, FSU brings back ex-NC State coach Chuck Amato as LB coach, so the linebackers should both do well and be luckier with injuries this season. The secondary was, statistically, the weakness of the defense last year, but should now be the strength. All four starters return, including strong safety Myron Rolle, who could very well be the best sophomore in the country at any position. I'm not ready to call the Seminoles a surprise national title contender, but between underperformance last year (not statistically, but compared to the talent level), improvement due to experience, and one hell of a coaching staff, FSU should be much improved. One problem may be the schedule, as Florida State gets Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Florida on the road, as well playing Alabama in Jacksonville and hosting their rival that should also be much improved, Miami. Florida State should at least see an improvement to 8 or 9 wins, though, and could run roughshod over the ACC Atlantic.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Clemson
The best team in the absolute mess that was the ACC last year? The Clemson Tigers, and quite easily. The only teams to finish top-15 in both scoring offense and defense? LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. Top-15 in both yardage offense and defense? Ohio State, Boise State, and Clemson. This was just a snakebit team against BC and Maryland, and one that could've easily beaten South Carolina to give them 11 wins. Still, Clemson's suffered some heavy losses to graduation, so that doesn't matter as much as it could've. Clemson sees a new QB take over in junior Cullen Harper - while this may seem like a step down, last year also saw a first-year starter in senior Will Proctor, so Harper should at least match his line of 2353 yards on 60.2% passing and a 16/11 TD/INT ratio. While the WR corps should be down due to the loss of #3 Thomas Hunter and NFL-talent #1 Chansi Stuckey, Harper should be helped by the continued improvement of one of the best RB duos in the country, James Davis and CJ Spiller. If not the WRs, the offensive line is the biggest concern - all-ACC left tackle Barry Richardson returns, but only one other part-time starter in left guard Chris McDuffie. Still, the Tigers at least return lots of players who have taken snaps, so while the OL should definitely regress, the cupboard isn't completely bare. All in all, the offense should regress, but remain above-average, especially due to having Davis, Spiller, and Richardson; and really, despite all the losses, the OL situation is the only real change from last year - if the line gets their act together, the offense could perform in the top-15 or 20 again. On defense, there's also a lot to like. While the defensive line loses #4 overall pick DE Gaines Adams, they replace him with sophomore Ricky Sapp, a top-tier defensive recruit. The linebackers essentially return all three starters, as '05 starting OLB Tramaine Billie returns alongside Nick Watkins and Antonio Clay. The secondary was the strength of the defense last year, and while the Tigers lose both starting CBs, they should still be quite above-average. Both starting safeties return, and while soph CBs Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, both gained experience last year, with Butler even tying for the team lead in INTs without even starting. All in all, the key with Clemson is the offensive line - otherwise, things are fairly comparable to last year, where, again, Clemson projected out to a ten-win team. Unfortunately, Clemson starts the season off with Florida State, which looks like a likely loss - FSU's progression will be more coaching-related, while Clemson's is due to losing talent, which suggests Florida State should be readier earlier. Outside of that, home against Virginia Tech, and at South Carolina, it looks like a fairly smooth ride for Clemson through the season, although the Tigers may be vulnerable to an upset early (at NC State and at Georgia Tech are calling to me here). Still, things look at about the same level as last year, and as a result, Clemson should have a similar record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. NC State
3-5 are insanely close, as there's lots of things to both love and hate about each team. NC State had fairly bad luck last year, going 3-9 but projecting to 5-7, and while that bounceback alone might put them up here (Wake, BC, and Maryland will all regress horribly), the hiring of Tom O'Brien was an absolute coup. The obvious improvement will be along the offensive line, where, while three starters are lost, the Wolfpack return the rest of the top 10; O'Brien's been an offensive line-crafting machine at BC, so life should be much easier for the backfield. Speaking of, QB play should be much improved, whether the starter is Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck or returning starter Dan Evans, who couldn't do much worse (1843 yards, 53.1%, 6/11 TD/INT). The offensive line improvement should be even better news for the RB duo of Andre Brown and Toney Baker, two juniors with NFL talent. Even with the loss of top TE Anthony Hill for the season, if the offensive line improves as expected, this looks to be one of the most improved offenses in the nation, going from below-average to, at least, in the upper half of the nation. The defense is somewhat less of a sure thing. On the plus side, the defense was about average last year, but unlucky in terms of scoring vs. yardage allowed. Also, as usual, NC State has a loaded D-line, returning three of four starters, including stud DT DeMario Pressley. The main reason for skepticism is the hiring of new DC Mike Archer - Archer did well as the Pittsburgh Steelers LB coach from '96 to '02, but he's spent the last few years overseeing an absolutely porous Kentucky defense. Still, Kentucky does have all-SEC linebacker Wesley Woodyard, so maybe Archer only has magic working with the LBs; and that's actually good news, since that's the least experienced unit on the team. The secondary only returns two starters, but there's experience past that -- new SS DaJuan Morgan led the team in INTs last year and is the team's returning tackler, despite only one start last year. Though there are the questions on defense, this still looks like a team that will rebound, mostly due to offense and coaching. Outside of Louisville, the Wolfpack has a winnable OOC slate, though they have the bad fortune of getting both BC and Wake Forest on the road. Still, if NC State can win one of those two, or get an upset elsewhere on the ACC slate, they should make it to bowl eligibility. Either way, things are looking up.
THE REALM OF POSSIBLITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
4. Boston College
BC was 10-3 last year, and returns 15 starters. Then why the low projection?
a) BC projected out to only a 6-7 win last year.
b) Head coach Tom O'Brien has left for NC State.
c) New coach Jeff Jagodzinski is apparently changing the offensive schemes, including the blocking of the offensive line, which has been a strength of BC for years.
The offense was decently above-average last year, and there's a lot to like in terms of returning talent, led by all-ACC QB Matt Ryan, who had 2942 yards on 61.6% passing and a 15/10 TD/INT ratio last year. Also returning are RBs LV Whitworth and Andre Callender, who will enter their fourth year splitting the load, and honestly, it feels like even longer. The point of interest, as mentioned above, will be the offensive line - the Eagles lose two starters that were, as usual, NFL draft picks, but return two of the best in the conference in left tackle Gosder Cherilus and left guard Ryan Poles. The offense is almost a complete crapshoot, dependent on how quickly they pick up the new schemes - there's the talent here to be great, but screwing with an offensive line that's always been successful just screams "horrible idea that will make everyone cry." The defense was fairly lucky last season - they were a top-15 scoring defense while only being above-average in terms of yardage. And there's actually a lot to like - if not for injured star LB Brian Toal missing the season, BC would be returning the entire starting front seven, which was excellent against the run last season. In the secondary, at least two positions will be set, as free safety Jamie Silva and 2nd team all-ACC CB DeJuan Tribble both return. There's some returning experience though, so things aren't completely dire otherwise. All in all, this projection may seem a bit low, but remember, this was a close to .500 team last year, and they now have a fairly unproven head coach. Still, it shouldn't be a lost season, as BC luckily gets both Wake and NC State at home, and doesn't have their toughest games (at Virginia Tech and Clemson, vs. FSU and Miami) until late in the season. It should be a down year, but there's easily enough talent here to make it to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
5. Wake Forest
Wake Forest was a nice story last year. Wake Forest was also horribly lucky last year. Wake outperformed their projected record by 5 wins, the second-highest margin in the nation, and, interestingly, in their own division last year. Almost every starter returns on offense, but the offense last year wasn't that great - while they were below-average but passable in terms of scoring, as far as yardage goes, they were really quite bad. Quite very bad. QB Riley Skinner returns after becoming an out-of-nowhere 2nd team all-ACC selection, although his line (171/260, 65.8%, 9/5 TD/INT) was fine if not amazingly impressive. After injuries decimated last year's running back corps, the top 6 rushers all return, although leading rusher Kenneth Moore returns to his natural position of wide receiver. The offensive line should be the strength of the offense - four starters return, including all-ACC center Steve Justice, and the fifth spot will be taken by Matthew Brim, who started in '04 and '05. The offense should be improved, both due to experience and health, but should only be about passable. The defense, the strength of the team, should take a few steps back, however. Firstly, the defense was lucky, similar to BC but more extreme - the Demon Deacons finished in the top 10 in scoring defense, extremely high compared to just fairly above-average yardage numbers. Despite losing all-ACC middle linebacker Jon Abbate, the run defense should still be fine - it was fairly good, and Wake returns 5 of 7 starters. The secondary is another story - the pass defense was quite poor, and past returning strong safety Kevin Patterson, things are...mediocre. 2005 starting CB Alphonso Smith will man one of the two slots, and free safety Chip Vaughn had some decent tackle numbers last year, but this isn't a unit that inspires confidence. Again, while Wake was a great story, they look to regress by about half their wins - they luckily draw both Duke and UNC from the Coastal division, but unluckily have winnable games against Navy, BC, and Vanderbilt on the road. Wake's not going to completely implode -- they should continue to be a fine team, but they may have to pull off an upset or two to make it into a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Maryland
The luckiest team in the country last year, the Terps won 8 regular season games despite outgaining only one team: William & Mary. Expectations should thus be tempered for Maryland, even though there is some returning talent to like. At the head of the line is the receiving corps, which returns two amazingly fast starters - Danny Oquendo and 2nd team all-ACC Darrius Heyward-Bey. In fact, everyone with at least 10 receptions returns from last season, so this should be one of the best WR units in the conference. Who's throwing to them is a different matter, as two-year starter Sam Hollenbach departs, and looks to be succeeded by Florida transfer Josh Portis. Portis is a high-talent player, so his final numbers may look good-but-not-great like Hollenbach's (2371, 61.9%, 15/11), but there should be some rough patches early. Top two rushers Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore return for their senior years, but the running game may not be much improved, as the offensive line was hurt by left tackle Jared Gaither leaving for the NFL supplemental draft. That leaves only two starters, including 2nd team all-ACC guard Andrew Crummey. While there's experience returning to fill the now-open spots, things look somewhat mediocre. On the defensive side, four of the front seven return; the good news is that include includes 2nd team all-ACC LB Erin Henderson. The bad news is that this was one of the worst run defenses in the NCAA last season. Still, things should improve, if only through Henderson's maturation. Things in the secondary look better, as senior starters Isaiah Gardner and Chris Varner return at CB and SS, respectively. New FS JJ Justice also tied Henderson for the team lead with 2 INT. All in all, Maryland should be improved -- it's just that they're improving from a 3 or so win team than an 8-win one. Unfortunately, Maryland gets NC State and Wake on the road, diminishing the chances of an upset, but does get BC at home. The only probable wins look like Villanova, at FIU, and at UNC, as Maryland doesn't draw Duke from the Coastal, but this is a wholly decent team that I could see sneaking into bowl eligibility with some luck. Hell, they did it last year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-4 conference wins
ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech played to their record last year -- 10-2 in the regular season vs. 9-3 projected, but that was almost all on the strength of the #1 defense in the country, as the offense was one of the luckiest in the nation when it came to scoring vs. yardage. Sean Glennon returns at QB after a mediocre year (2191, 56.3%, 11/11), but he should improve, especially since he returns top WRs Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan. RB Branden Ore also returns, but he had a much better season than Glennon, gaining all-ACC honors on the strength of 1137 yards and 16 TD. He should also improve, as the offensive line is also moving upward, returning 3 starters, including 2nd team all-ACC tackle Duane Brown, and 2 others with starting experience. There's really not much to say about the defense, since the Hokies return 8 starters, and it should be, once again, threatening for top honors in the nation. There are three outstanding duos on this side of the ball -- senior DTs Carlton Powell and Barry Booker, one of the best CB duos in the country in juniors Brandon Flowers (3rd-team All-American) and Macho Harris, and outstanding senior linebackers Vince Hall (1st team all-ACC) and Xavier Adibi (2nd team all-ACC). This defense will be very good. Very great. Very EXCELLENT. Still, while I think VT has an elite defense, I don't see them as an elite-level team because of the offense, although that should improve. Still, Virginia Tech is a talented enough team, especially, again, on defense, where they may be able to sweep the ACC. Getting Florida State and Miami at home helps quite a bit towards that, too. The key game, obviously, is at LSU in the second game of the season - if Tech pulls off the upset, they can go undefeated. While it should be a great season for the Hokies, the ACC won't be a complete sinch - FSU should be much improved through better coaching, and there's not as big a gap as you'd think between VT and the next team on this list.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Miami
Uh oh, they're back. Though they may not have ever really left - this team projected out to about 8 wins last year, and five of their six losses were by ten points or less. Miami was a less extreme version of Virginia Tech last year - their offense was slightly better, and their defense was #5 in yardage to VT's #1. The only real difference was Virginia Tech was somehow lucky enough to score 6.5 more points per game. On offense, the big question mark will be the QB position; Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman combined for 2527 yards and a mediocre 15/15 TD/INT ratio, with Wright seeing most of the snaps. A starter hasn't been named, but the talent's there for greatly improved numbers. They'll be helped by a greatly improved offensive line, which returns four starters, including honorable mention all-ACC guard Derrick Morse, and the depth chart is stacked with the type of talent you'd expect at Miami. Last year's top running back returns in sophomore Javarris James, though he'll be threatened by frosh Graig Cooper; this is another position that has too much talent not to rebound, as the Canes averaged only a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. On the defensive side, the third-best rushing defense in the nation returns four of the front seven, led by all-ACC DE/6'8" freak of nature/future top draft pick Calais Campbell. Again, Miami's a team that constantly reloads with talent, so the run defense should once again be above-average, but another top 3 finish may be a bit of a stretch. The secondary, above-average but still the relative weakness last year, should be quite improved - three starters return, and new starting SS Lovon Ponder has enough experience that he might as well be considered a fourth. Miami, again, is in very much the same situation as Virginia Tech, returning an elite defense and a disappointing offense that should improve. Miami may have the better offense this year, especially with Virginia Tech's chances for regression, but the defense is the key, and I think Virginia Tech should remain elite, while Miami may regress slightly, but should remain easily above-average. Still, this should be quite the rebound year for Miami, though unfortunately they have three hellish road games at Oklahoma, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. Miami has the talent to win one, maybe even two, but having all three on the road prevents them from, in my mind, being surprise national title contenders.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Georgia Tech
Shockingly for a Chan Gailey team, Georgia Tech projected out to a 7-win team, overperforming that by two wins. The big news for this team is the loss of WR Calvin Johnson, who was probably the best player in college football last year. While this leaves James Johnson as the only receiver who's really done anything, Calvin's loss may be negated by the loss of four-year starting QB Reggie Ball, who had a decent 20/14 TD/INT ratio last year, but his usual mind-bogglingly low 44.4% completion percentage. Junior Taylor Bennett takes over for Ball, and had decent numbers in limited action last year: 523 yards, 60.3% with a 5/2 ratio. Luckily for Bennett, GT also returns pretty much everyone of note outside the receiving corps: ACC-leading rusher Tashard Choice returns behind an improved offensive line, which returns four starters, including three seniors and honorable mention all-ACC left tackle Andrew Gardner. The defense should once again be top-20 or better, as GT returns a lot of talent there as well. While the defensive line loses all-ACC DT Joe Anoai, his replacement, Vance Walker, has starting experience, and GT returns the other three starters. The secondary has a similar situation - they only lose starting CB Kenny Scott, but his replacement, Jahi Word-Daniels, also has starting experience, and Tech has one of the best safety duos out there in Djay Jones and all-ACC strong safety Jamal Lewis. The linebacking corps also has one open spot, although there's much less experienced depth than the other two units - still, the unit may be home to Tech's best player - 2nd team all-ACC MLB Philip Wheeler. And a rare mention of special teams -- senior punter Durant Brooks is probably the best in the nation. Georgia Tech luckily gets ND kicking off the year, so that should be a win, but the Yellow Jackets get Miami and the swing game with Virginia on the road, and have to deal with Virginia Tech and Georgia late in the year at home. Once again, GT should be a solidly above-average team, although the schedule may result in another 7 or so-win season; the offense should improve, and the defense should remain in the top tier.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. Virginia
Virginia's been bandied about somewhat as a surprise team, and my first instinct was that I didn't see it. But upon closer inspection, there's a lot to like. Admittedly, the offense was among the worst in the nation last season, but there's a lot of indicators for improvement on that side of the ball. Firstly, all five starters return on the offensive line, led by talented seniors C Jordy Lipsey and RG Ian-Yates Cunningham, along with junior and HS uber-recruit left tackle Eugene Monroe. That should lead to a huge improvement for a running game that didn't crack 100 yards/game last year. It's also good news for sophomore QB Jameel Sewell, who was thrown to the wolves last year and put up numbers that were neither that good nor a complete disaster: 1342 yards, 57.9%, 5/6 TD/INT. Still, he should be one of many ACC QBs who see dramatic improvement over their results from last year. Despite reasons for optimism on offense, the defense is still the star of the show. Virginia had the #21 defense last year, and returns an astounding 10 of 11 starters, losing only 2nd team all-ACC CB Marcus Hamilton. The pass defense was surprisingly great at #18 last season, and should remain at that level if not improve, as Hamilton's spot looks to be filled by Mike Brown, who has had sporadic starting experience over the last two seasons. The front seven, which was also above-average last year, obviously should also improve by returning all seven starters, led by 2nd team all-ACC DE/Howie's son Chris Long. With this amount of returning talent there's not much to say -- they were very good last year, and should continue to be that good, if not better! Wow. Virginia may not be an elite team next year, if only because there's so much the offense can improve by, but they may have a Rutgers-esque 9 or 10 win season with a fairly weak schedule. Their closest peer is Georgia Tech, who they get at home, and the Cavs are lucky enough to avoid both Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic division. Amazingly, Virginia may be 10-0 heading into their last two games, at Miami, and at home against Virginia Tech. And even if things go poorly and Virginia doesn't perform up to expectations, that schedule should at least guarantee a return to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. North Carolina
UNC projected out to a 4-5 win team last year, which is amazing when you look at how horrible their final yardage statistics were -- still, the Heels had winnable games against Rutgers and Wake Forest, both of which would've had them meet that 5-win projection. Still, last year pretty much doesn't matter, as only 9 starters return, one of which is now ex-QB The Joe Dailey Interception Experience, who moves to receiver. Luckily, three of the four returning starters on offense are along the offensive line. That may lead to some improvement for the offense as a whole - talented WR Hakeem Nicks returns, and new QB and redshirt freshman TJ Yates is unproven, but can only improve on last year's numbers (2156, ~51%, 11/18 ratio). The RB corps is also unproven but highly talented, led by sophomore and member of the NCAA all-name team Richie Rich. The defense should have a strong line, but not much else. DE Hilee Taylor and DT Kentwan Balmer return along said line, and uber-recruit DT Marvin Austin should find a place soon enough, but past that the only real standouts are senior OLB Durell Mapp and junior FS Trimane Goddard, an '05 starter who returns from injury. Really, for the moment, this isn't a much better team than Duke, as the Blue Devils return more experience. Still, UNC can reload with a higher level of talent, and the gap is only getting larger with Butch Davis's recruiting. UNC gets Maryland and Duke at home, which are probably the two most winnable conference games, but the schedule looks too tough for bowl eligibility to be possible. Watch out in 2008, though.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-5 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Duke
Duke wasn't THAT awful last year -- hell, they had winnable games against Richmond, UNC, Wake, and even Miami. Still, on a statistical level, they were near the bottom on both offense and defense, and while the entire starting offense returns, the defense doesn't have near that luxury. Anytime all five starter return on the line, an offense should be improved, and Duke is no exception -- especially since a surprisingly talented stable of running backs suffered injuries last year, and soph QB Thaddeus Lewis should be much-improved after being thrown to the wolves last year due to their starter's suspension. On defense, at least the returning starters are mostly good ones. Sophomore DT Vince Oghobaase may be Duke's best recruit ever, MLB Mike Tauiliili was a freshman All-American in 2005, and FS Chris Davis and DE Patrick Bailey are both two-year starters. Starting SS Adrian Aye-Darko also returns, but the secondary should be the defense's weakness, as the CB position is especially up for grabs. Duke should be much improved, and should manage a win or two somewhere along the line. Still, the Blue Devils don't have a I-AA opponent this year, and of the winnable games (UNC, UConn, Northwestern, even Navy), only Connecticut's at home. I'd like to call for a surprise season for Duke, since they're not really as bad as advertised, and they are a team returning their entire offense, but the schedule's too tough to avoid another dire season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
Saturday, August 18, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE SEC
THE CONSENSUS:
SEC East:
1. Florida (#6 overall - AT: #6, LN: #11, SN: #5, SS: #6, ST: #10)
2. Georgia (#11 overall - AT: #16, LN: #17, SN: #14, SS: #16, ST: #9)
3. Tennessee (#16 overall - AT: #20, LN: #7, SN: #18, SS: #21, ST: #26)
4. South Carolina (#32t overall - AT: #39, LN: #40, SN: #36, SS: --, ST: #11)
5. Kentucky (#48 overall - AT: #43, LN: #48, SN: #53, SS: --, ST: #47)
6. Vanderbilt (#61 overall - AT: #45, LN: #78, SN: #78, SS: --, ST: #52)
SEC West:
1. LSU (#2 overall - AT: #3, LN: #2, SN: #2, SS: #4, ST: #2)
2. Auburn (#23 overall - AT: #21, LN: #23, SN: #16, SS: #14, ST: #40)
3. Alabama (#27 overall - AT: #29, LN: #34, SN: #31, SS: --, ST: #19)
4. Arkansas (#28 overall - AT #34, LN: #14, SN: #33, SS: #12, ST: #33)
5. Mississippi (#63t overall - AT: #75, LN: #77, SN: #54, SS: --, ST: #65)
6. Mississippi State (#73 overall - AT: #71, LN: #70, SN: #86, SS: --, ST: #63)
OVERRATED: Florida. History seems to have rewritten them as some sort of dominant force who, in retrospect, was easily the top team in the country in 2006. Really, they were a very good team that happened to get lucky, and then played the game of their lives in the national championship. And now they've lost about 2/3 of their starters.
UNDERRATED: South Carolina. They were one blocked kick away from beating Florida, and played Arkansas and Auburn close. A few breaks, and this could've easily been a 10-win team last year. And they return all but one starter on defense, and Steve Spurrier is their coach. Watch out.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
SEC East:
1. South Carolina
Yes, really. And believe it or not, last year's team, coached by Steve Spurrier, performed better than they did on defense than on offense. And they return an insane amount of experience on the defensive side of the ball. On the defensive line, the Gamecocks get back injured starters DE Jordin Lindsey and DT Marque Hall, along with starting nose tackle Nathan Pepper. The fourth DE spot should be filled by sophomore Eric Norwood, who started no games last year, but still tied for the team lead with 7 sacks. One of last year's starting DEs, Casper Brinkley, gets moved to OLB, where he'll play alongside All-SEC MLB Jasper Brinkley, who, yes, is his twin brother. Returning starter Rodney Paulk takes up the third LB spot, and once again, South Carolina gets some ex-starters back from injury, in this case Dustin Lindsey and Cody Wells. And they return all the starters in the secondary too! And then, of course, there's the offense. QB Blake Mitchell has had a spotty career, but had wholly decent numbers in 6 starts last year: 1789 yards on 66.8 passing and a 10/6 TD/INT ratio. He should improve on those and become an above average player. At the rest of the skill positions, the one major loss is their top WR Sidney Rice, but top JuCo recruit Larry Freeman should at least somewhat fill that void. The major concern for the offense, and for the team as a whole, is in the offensive line, where officially, two starters return, but the other three projected starters do have starting experience. While the offensive line probably won't be elite, it should at least continue to improve, as even if the experienced players disappoint, Spurrier has brought in a number of talent youth which may right the boat. South Carolina should be much improved for a number of reasons; firstly, Georgia was their only loss last year that wasn't close - a few breaks, and they could've been in Florida's spot last year; hell, a few breaks against Florida, and FLORIDA wouldn't have been in Florida's spot. Secondly, the offense was above-average in terms of offensive yardage, but didn't see this translate into scoring - some regression to the mean, combined with returning talent and the fact that, well, Steve freakin' Spurrier is their coach, suggests a dramatic offensive improvement. And while the defense, conversely, allowed less points than their yardage would dictate, they should be able to repeat that by returning 10 of 11 starters. On the surface, the Gamecocks' SEC schedule seems brutal, with road games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas. In fact, three of those are quite winnable; Carolina faces Georgia early, at a time when their defense may not have come together, Arkansas is overrated, and well, Tennessee, come on, this is a Spurrier-coached team. The LSU game, as well as home against Florida, should be the two keys - the Gators should be dangerous since SC gets them late in the year, but Carolina luckily gets them in Columbia. 11 of these games are winnable on paper, and when you look at Spurrier's Carolina tenure, he sometimes wins games he shouldn't (Tennessee and Florida two years ago ring a bell). When Spurrier became coach at Carolina, some people said that in three years, he'd have them as a national title contender. While perception may not be so at the moment, those people might be right.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Florida
Florida finished top-10 in yardage defense and at #21 in offense, so yes, they were a pretty good team last year. Still, they were quite lucky, as their wins over Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and of course, South Carolina, could've easily been losses. With only 6 returning starters on offense and 2 on defense, it almost doesn't matter, but I don't think a team so scarce on starting experience would be regarded as highly after an 8-4 season. Still, I don't think the team will be awful, just not a national title contender. Tim Tebow, at the very least, proved to be a great I-AA quarterback against Western Carolina, and he will be helped by two great receivers, senior Andre Caldwell and do-everything sophomore Percy Harvin. Also helping Tebow progress will be the offensive line, where four of Florida's 8 returning starters are located, including two 2nd team all-SEC players in C (RG in '06) Drew Miller and RT Phil Trautwein. The defense is much more of a question mark, returning only 2nd team all-SEC DE Derrick Harvey, SS Tony Joiner, 2005 starting FS Kyle Jackson, and a whole bunch of players who, in some cases, may have started one game. Florida's recruiting level is at the point where they can continually restock with young talent and, quite frankly, upperclassman talent, but replacing, you know, 4/5 of the defense should result in some growing pains. Still, at LSU is the one game on the Florida schedule that looks like an extremely likely loss. Home games at Tennessee and Auburn early could go either way, mostly due to the Gators' in experience, but Florida should be operating at full capacity by their games against Georgia, at South Carolina, and against Florida State. All in all, it should still be a good year for Florida -- although they're overrated as a top-5, and probably even a top-10 team, they should be at a similar level to 2005, 9 or so wins, and somewhere between the #3 and 5 team in the SEC as a whole.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Georgia
Georgia's offense wasn't THAT terrible last year - they finished around the middle of the NCAA in scoring, and while their yardage numbers were admittedly below-average, they still actually managed to gain more yards per game than Georgia Tech, who had, you know, the best player in college football last year in Calvin Johnson. And things should improve - while TE and leading receiver Martrez Milner departs, all starters return at the skill positions, and get back ex-starting WR Sean Bailey from injury. Sophomore QB Matthew Stafford should also improve greatly from a rough rookie campaign, where he threw for 1749 yards on only 53% passing and a 7/13 TD/INT ratio in 8 starts. The offensive line looks like a concern, returning only two starters, but apparently has impressed greatly between seasons. The defense, always a strength for UGA, was #9 in yardage last year, but the Bulldogs return only 3 starters after star CB Paul Oliver was declared ineligible and left for the NFL. Still, Georgia's defense is at a level where it remains consistently good year in and year out, and everyone returning on the depth charts is either experienced or was highly rated coming out of high school. While the defense should be down a notch from years past, especially facing Oklahoma State and South Carolina to kick off the year, the UGA defense should still be above-average. While this doesn't look like a national title-contender level team, Georgia should again be very good this year, especially later on. I could see them dropping games early both vs. South Carolina and at Alabama, or even vs. Oklahoma State, as both Stafford and players on the defense mature. However, once late September rolls around, it wouldn't shock me to see Georgia go on a tear and win their last eight games, with Florida at Jacksonville being the only obvious swing game. Georgia should be slightly improved over last year, and if Stafford develops as planned, seem very well-prepared for 2008.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Tennessee
Tennessee was an above-average team on both sides of the ball, but with four games that could've gone either way (vs. Air Force, Kentucky, and Florida, as well as at South Carolina), the Vols were lucky to win three of those and go 9-3 in the regular season. The offense should once again be solidly above-average, but may not be as great as you'd think with senior QB Erik Ainge, who's probably no worse than the SEC's #2 passer. The offensive line also returns three starters, and has enough experienced depth to at least remain steady, if not improve, despite the loss of All-American left tackle Arron Sears. The, perhaps temporary, loss of RB LaMarcus Coker, will be a concern, as while Tennessee returns some experienced backs in Montario Hardesty and Arian Foster, neither cracked 4 yards per carry last year. The receiving corps are the biggest concern of all, as the only returning WR of note is junior Lucas Taylor, who was #7 on the team with 14 catches for 101 yards last season. On defense, things generally look better, led by the linebacking corps of returning starters Jerod Mayo and Ryan Karl, and top backup Rico McCoy. The defensive line should also be constant, if not improved, as despite losing two NFL-caliber DTs, they should be replaced by two more with NFL-level talent in JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden. If either disappoints, however, there's enough talented youth at the position to at least play well. The secondary is the x-factor of the defense, as past 2nd team all-SEC free safety Jonathan Hefney, the next surest thing is probably uber-recruit true frosh CB Eric Berry. Still, much like the DTs, there's enough high-level talent that someone will stick. Really, this team...should be pretty good. And that is really all there is to say. This is a team this is completely unspectacularly above-average. Example, QB Erik Ainge. He's very good. He's not GREAT, but he's very good. And that's the story of this team on pretty much every level. And looking at the schedule, that'll be about how their season goes. Not a national title level, probably not an SEC title level, but probably not .500. Just...pretty good.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt actually wasn't all that bad last year after losing star QB Jay Cutler; the Commodores projected out to about a 6-6 team last season. And even better, 18 of 22 starters return for this year. Now-junior QB Chris Nickson played well after being thrown to the wolves in his first two games (at Michigan, at Alabama), throwing for 2085 yards and a 15/13 TD/INT ratio, as well as leading the team in rushing with 694 yards and 9 TD. He should improve, at least as a passer, and it'll help that he has two-time all-SEC WR Earl Bennett to throw to. The running game should also improve, as both Cassen Jackson-Garrison and 2005 starter Jeff Jennings return; luckily, they'll be running behind five returning starters on the offensive line. The defense should be improved, especially against the pass, as all four starters return in the secondary. The front seven, led by LB Jonathan Goff, should improve, but may not necessarily be especially great - the Commodores lose three starters, and Vanderbilt isn't the level of program that can bring in young recruits that can immediately play. As a whole though, Vandy should be improved, and the gap between them and other SEC teams isn't as wide as people think. They have a winnable out of conference schedule, with the only tough game being vs. Wake Forest, and winnable home games against Mississippi and Kentucky. Plus, again, Vandy is at the level where they can pull off an upset against one of the better teams, so the Commodores have an excellent shot at bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Kentucky
We'll start with the offense, since, frankly, that's the side of the ball that matters here. The Wildcats offense wasn't top 10 or top 15 as you'd expect, but was still quite above-average, and it should improve, mostly due to the talent at the skill positions: all-SEC WR Keenan Burton, 2005 all-SEC RB Rafael Little, and 2nd team all-SEC QB Andre' Woodson, who put up an insane line of 3515 yards on 63% passing with a 31/7 TD/INT. The offensive line's somewhat of a concern - they only return 2 starters, but with injuries to the line last year, there's some returning starting experience, so the unit should at least be decent. As for the defense, well, OLB Wesley Woodyard was an all-SEC player last year, and there's some returning talent, but that almost doesn't matter since the Wildcats D hemorrhaged yardage last year, faring better than only Louisiana Tech. On the plus side, DC Mike Archer was hired away by NC State for some unknown reason, but the replacement is DB coach Steve Brown. I suppose having the third-worst pass defense is an improvement over being responsible for the second-worst overall defense, so while the Wildcats D should improve to "respectably bad", I don't foresee a drastic turnaround. That said, there's enough offensive talent to win some fun shootouts, but Kentucky was lucky last year (~4-5 projected wins), and the schedule does them no favors. Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, and Florida Atlantic are an easy 3/4 of their OOC schedule, but the rivalry game against Louisville is, well, quite the opposite. The only SEC game in which Kentucky looks like a favorite is against Mississippi State, as they draw Vanderbilt on the road and miss Ole Miss. There's enough firepower there to maybe upset Tennessee at home, or win at Arkansas, but all in all, this looks like a drastic regression to the mean. Essentially, this team is like Texas Tech, but without the defense, and frankly, not as good an offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
SEC West:
1. LSU
A slam dunk. A top 15 offense last year, replacing the #1 draft pick with possibly a better QB (yeah, I said it.), and 8 starters returning from a top-5 defense. The only point of concern may be the loss of now-Florida State OC Jimbo Fisher, who will be replaced by Oregon's Gary Crowton; however, Oregon's offense did just as well as LSU's last year, so if there's any drop-off, it should be minor. The big focus will be on senior QB Matt Flynn, who's played very well (689 yards, 10/2 TD/INT) when called upon, but is replacing #1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell, who threw for 3129 on 68% passing with a 28/8 TD/INT last year. While Flynn may not match those numbers, I think LSU will still be improved at QB, as Flynn shouldn't make many dumb mistakes, such as, say, scrambling with less than a minute left and no timeouts when trying to come back against Auburn. I mean, who would ever do that? (Hint: JaMarcus Russell.) The Tigers also lose their top two WRs, but return Early Doucet, their just as talented #3. They also have an insane influx of new talent at WR, including 5'5" converted RB Trindon Holliday, probably the fastest man in college football; therefore, there shouldn't be much of a dropoff. LSU also returns four starters along the line, and has a USC-like amount of riches at running back, even with senior Alley Broussard quitting the team recently. On the other side of the ball, the #14 run defense in the country should be even better, as All-American DT Glenn Dorsey returns, as well as five other starters, including senior OLB Ali Highsmith and 2nd-Team SEC DE Tyson Jackson. LSU was #4 against the pass this year, and may actually now be the weakness of this defense, if only due to the loss of All-American free safety LaRon Landry. Starting CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are the two returning starters, but strong safety should be fine in the hands of Craig Steltz, who became the first LSU player with an interception in 4 straight games. Even if the offense experiences some problems transitioning to Crowton's offense, the defense is more than good enough to carry the Tigers. LSU also got lucky with the schedule, as possible threats Florida, South Carolina, and out of conference, Virginia Tech, all have to come to Death Valley, leaving the only real trap game as November 3rd at Alabama. Anything less than the BCS title game would be disappointment, and anything less than an SEC title would be disaster.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Alabama
Mike Shula got a pretty raw deal, letting Tyrone Prothro shatter his leg in a blowout aside, as after a 10-2 year in 2005, the Tide could've had double-digit wins last year rather than ending 6-7 like they did. Alabama outgained 10 of their 12 opponents, and 5 of those were close, along with a close loss to Tennessee. If they had won half of those close games, rather than 1 of 6, Alabama would've finished 8-4 in the regular season, and with some luck, actually could've hit 10 or 11 wins. The Tide offense was completely decent last year, and should take some steps forward with 9 returning starters. QB John Parker Wilson was perfectly fine last year, throwing for 2707 on 57% passing and a 17/10 TD/INT ratio, and should continue to improve; plus he has his top two WRs returning in Keith Brown and 2nd team all-SEC DJ Hall. The running game seems to be the weak point of the offense for the time being, as star RB Kenneth Darby and NFL-caliber FB Le'Ron McClain both graduate. Still, there's talent there, and the new stable of backs will be running behind an elite-level offensive line, led by super-soph LT Andre Smith and 2nd team all-SEC center Antoine Caldwell. Defense, as usual, was the strength for Alabama this year, and while that should be over the case early, things may be slightly rough early. as they only return 5 starters on defense and are switching to a 3-4. Still, things should be above-average, as both starting DEs return, and 2 of the 4 LB spots will be taken by top-tier sophomore Prince Hall and 2005 starting DE Keith Saunders. The rest of the front seven is one of those cases where everyone returning either has high talent or experience, and someone should stick and play at a high level. In the secondary, Alabama's top-20 pass defense should at least remain constant, as they return FS Marcus Carter, as well as all-SEC Simeon Castille and part-time starter Eric Gray at cornerback. Plain old regression (or in this case, progression) to the mean would account for an 8 or 9 win season, but the Crimson Tide are also lucky with their schedule, drawing possible threats Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee at home, as well as possible upset LSU. Road games at Florida State and, of course, Auburn may be tricky, but all-in-all this looks like a team poised to have a huge rebound season. And, quite frankly, Nick Saban is an upgrade over Mike Shula, even if the latter did kind of get the shaft. This should be a year similar to 2005, where Alabama surprises and becomes an SEC title contender, if not a title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Arkansas
Oh, this was a close choice. Arkansas was probably closer to a top-20 team rather than top-10, but were still a solidly above average team, around, say, an 8-4 level. The star of the show, and seemingly the unanimous choice for best player in college football, is RB Darren McFadden, who ran for 1714 and 14 TD last season. I've always thought McFadden was very good, but I never saw him as the runaway best player that he seems to be pegged as -- I don't think he's at, say, an Adrian Peterson level, but is better than, say, Marshawn Lynch. At any rate, McFadden and Felix Jones (1225, 6 TD) should once again be the top running back duo in the nation, even if the offensive line has some questions. Oh, and they have a top-tier fullback in Peyton Hillis. The passing game is much more of a worry, as star WR Marcus Monk will miss a few games, and the rest of the receiving corps is fairly unproven. QB Casey Dick is somewhat more proven, meaning that he's proven that he's really not that good. His TD/INT ratio at least remained positive at 9/6, but that 49.2% completion rate, not so much. The offense should still be somewhat above-average though, if only for the talent of their running backs. The defense has improved the last few years under DC Reggie Herring, and things should at least stay steady this year. The defensive line may be hurt a bit by an injury to DT Marcus Harrison, but the unit still returns two other starters, and players at the other two positions with starting experience. The secondary also returns three of their four starters. The weakness of the defense may be the linebacking corps, which returns one starter from 06 and one from 05, but does lose all-SEC Sam Olajubutu. Arkansas should be pretty good no matter what -- it's hard to gauge how much the loss of OC Guz Malzahn will hurt, mostly since McFadden and Jones should guarantee the offense will be above-average, and the defense should at least remain above-average. Like most SEC teams, at LSU looks like the one very likely loss, and Arkansas splits its luck otherwise, getting Auburn and South Carolina at home, but Alabama and Tennessee on the road. #12 or #14 seems like a bit much unless Arkansas gets some breaks, but the Razorbacks should be a solid top-25ish team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Auburn
Auburn was damn lucky last year, projecting out as about a 6-7 win team, but managing 10 in the regular season. The big concern on offense is the line, where senior King Dunlap returns at left tackle, but that's it, that's the list. While there is some upperclassman depth, there's very little in terms of starting experience, which should make the Auburn running game's performance interesting to watch. They lose NFL-caliber RB Kenny Irons, but I always found Irons fairly underrated, as the offense was just as good if not better when Irons was hurt and Brad Lester took over; still, Auburn backs have had some very good lines to run behind, and if that was the key to Lester's success, well, uh oh. QB Brandon Cox has been a three-year starter, but his stats last year were not overly impressive: 2198 yards for a 14/9 TD/INT ratio on 60.1% passing. Good numbers, but not blow away, though Cox does at least get 4 of his top 5 receivers back, losing only #1 WR Courtney Taylor. The defense was above-average last year, but given their yardage numbers, were quite lucky to finish at #7 in scoring defense. The Tigers return three of their front four, including all-SEC DE Quentin Groves, and the LB corps should also be a strength, as starting MLB Merrill Johnson returns along with super-soph and last year's part-time starter, OLB Tray Blackmon. The pass defense was #21 nationally last season, and should continue to be the defense's strength, as the secondary loses only star CB David Irons, and has enough talent to replace him. On the whole, Auburn's defense should remain above-average, but those offensive problems could result in any number of scenarios for the offense's performance. The schedule doesn't really pay them any favors, as the Tigers kick off the season with Kansas State and South Florida, either of which could be losses. Plus, Auburn gets Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia all on the road, greatly diminishing their chances of upsets there. Still, this looks like a solid team that should easily be bowl-eligible, but if you want to pick a SEC team that could pull an '05 Tennessee and collapse compared to last season (besides Kentucky, obviously), this may be the best shot.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs actually weren't too bad last year, as they performed at about a 5-6 win level, but had some bad luck, mostly in a defense that allowed much more scoring than the yardage would dictate. Hell, they only lost to Georgia and Kentucky by a field goal each, so with some luck, this team would be viewed in a much more positive light. The offense was pretty bad last year, but somewhat luckily?, the team gets back 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Bulldogs QBs suffered a bunch of injuries last year, but return their leading passer in junior Michael Henig, whose overall line of 1201 yards on 43.8 passing and a 7/9 TD/INT ratio, which is less than inspiring. He torched the Kentucky defense pretty well last year, though, so that proves...something, I'm sure. That he plays the quarterback position, we'll go with that. Plus they now have an insurance policy in top JuCo QB Josh Riddell. Things should also be better with a very experienced offensive line, as each projected starter started at least half of last season. The Bulldogs also return starting RB Anthony Dixon, who gained 707 and 9 TD last year as a true frosh, though he struggled with injuries. And much like at QB, MSU brings in an insurance policy, in this case top RB recruit Robert Elliott. The Bulldogs also return underrated TE Eric Butler, and WR Tony Burks, who led the SEC in yards per catch last year. They also add top-flight JuCo WR Co-Eric Riley, who may gain the #2 spot, and also has a great name. The defense is more of a question mark, to an extent. The front seven is a mixed bag - MSU returns 2nd team all-SEC DE Titus Brown and 2 of 3 starting linebackers, but past that it's top JuCo DT Jesse Bowman and quite a bit of question marks. The secondary also has good news and bad news - 2nd team all-SEC CB Derek Pegues returns and moves to free safety, alongside returning starter Keith Fitzhugh, but the CBs left are somewhat of a crapshoot. Still, the level of performance should remain the same, and some of last year's bad luck with scoring should be alleviated, and the defensive stats should be improved via, at least, regression to the mean. While Mississippi State plays West Virginia out of conference, the rest of their non-SEC slate contains Tulane, UAB, and Gardner-Webb, three easily winnable games. MSU also gets Ole Miss at home, and, remember, this was around a .500-level team this season: they could easily win at Kentucky, and if Sylvester Croom can pull off one his upsets that gets a coach fired (Florida in '04, Alabama last year), that would bring Mississippi State to bowl eligibility. And why yes, they do get Tennessee at home. Anyway, this is a team on the way up, and this seems like a situation similar to Vanderbilt in Jay Cutler's senior year - a shot at bowl eligibility, likely to take a step back next year, but well-positioned to be much improved in the future. Hopefully Sly Croom'll be around to see it.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
6. Mississippi
Don't hurt me, Ed Orgeron. The Rebels played at a 1-3 win level last year, and as bad as Mississippi State's offense was, Ole Miss's was even worse. And their defense was no good, too. There's some reason for optimism though, at least on offense, where 9 starters return, although that does include versatile QB/Soulcrushing Disappointment Brent Schaeffer. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis should once again be the standout on offense, as he gained 1000 yards and 7 TD last year, and will return behind an offensive line that returns both four starters and left tackle Michael Oher, one of the best in the nation. The receiving corps also returns pretty much everyone, including do-everything Dexter McCluster, and adds AJ Jackson, Brent Schaeffer's top WR in junior college. The defensive line should be the best part of the defense, as they return all four starters, but the Ole Miss LBs are a horribly inexperienced unit, returning only 7 tackles. The secondary is a mixed bag, as SS Jamarca Sanford and CB Nate Banks return, but past that, things are a question mark, especially at free safety. While there's lots of shiny talent here thanks to Ed Orgeron's excellent recruiting skills, this team sort of reminds me of the Minnesota Vikings - great along the offensive and defensive lines, with two great skill position players (McCluster/Green-Ellis, Taylor/Peterson), but hey, you're gonna need much more than that to win anything. Though hey, at least the Rebels have a I-A quarterback. And, fairly easily, the worst team in the SEC. Though, hey, 2009 looks good!
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
SEC East:
1. Florida (#6 overall - AT: #6, LN: #11, SN: #5, SS: #6, ST: #10)
2. Georgia (#11 overall - AT: #16, LN: #17, SN: #14, SS: #16, ST: #9)
3. Tennessee (#16 overall - AT: #20, LN: #7, SN: #18, SS: #21, ST: #26)
4. South Carolina (#32t overall - AT: #39, LN: #40, SN: #36, SS: --, ST: #11)
5. Kentucky (#48 overall - AT: #43, LN: #48, SN: #53, SS: --, ST: #47)
6. Vanderbilt (#61 overall - AT: #45, LN: #78, SN: #78, SS: --, ST: #52)
SEC West:
1. LSU (#2 overall - AT: #3, LN: #2, SN: #2, SS: #4, ST: #2)
2. Auburn (#23 overall - AT: #21, LN: #23, SN: #16, SS: #14, ST: #40)
3. Alabama (#27 overall - AT: #29, LN: #34, SN: #31, SS: --, ST: #19)
4. Arkansas (#28 overall - AT #34, LN: #14, SN: #33, SS: #12, ST: #33)
5. Mississippi (#63t overall - AT: #75, LN: #77, SN: #54, SS: --, ST: #65)
6. Mississippi State (#73 overall - AT: #71, LN: #70, SN: #86, SS: --, ST: #63)
OVERRATED: Florida. History seems to have rewritten them as some sort of dominant force who, in retrospect, was easily the top team in the country in 2006. Really, they were a very good team that happened to get lucky, and then played the game of their lives in the national championship. And now they've lost about 2/3 of their starters.
UNDERRATED: South Carolina. They were one blocked kick away from beating Florida, and played Arkansas and Auburn close. A few breaks, and this could've easily been a 10-win team last year. And they return all but one starter on defense, and Steve Spurrier is their coach. Watch out.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
SEC East:
1. South Carolina
Yes, really. And believe it or not, last year's team, coached by Steve Spurrier, performed better than they did on defense than on offense. And they return an insane amount of experience on the defensive side of the ball. On the defensive line, the Gamecocks get back injured starters DE Jordin Lindsey and DT Marque Hall, along with starting nose tackle Nathan Pepper. The fourth DE spot should be filled by sophomore Eric Norwood, who started no games last year, but still tied for the team lead with 7 sacks. One of last year's starting DEs, Casper Brinkley, gets moved to OLB, where he'll play alongside All-SEC MLB Jasper Brinkley, who, yes, is his twin brother. Returning starter Rodney Paulk takes up the third LB spot, and once again, South Carolina gets some ex-starters back from injury, in this case Dustin Lindsey and Cody Wells. And they return all the starters in the secondary too! And then, of course, there's the offense. QB Blake Mitchell has had a spotty career, but had wholly decent numbers in 6 starts last year: 1789 yards on 66.8 passing and a 10/6 TD/INT ratio. He should improve on those and become an above average player. At the rest of the skill positions, the one major loss is their top WR Sidney Rice, but top JuCo recruit Larry Freeman should at least somewhat fill that void. The major concern for the offense, and for the team as a whole, is in the offensive line, where officially, two starters return, but the other three projected starters do have starting experience. While the offensive line probably won't be elite, it should at least continue to improve, as even if the experienced players disappoint, Spurrier has brought in a number of talent youth which may right the boat. South Carolina should be much improved for a number of reasons; firstly, Georgia was their only loss last year that wasn't close - a few breaks, and they could've been in Florida's spot last year; hell, a few breaks against Florida, and FLORIDA wouldn't have been in Florida's spot. Secondly, the offense was above-average in terms of offensive yardage, but didn't see this translate into scoring - some regression to the mean, combined with returning talent and the fact that, well, Steve freakin' Spurrier is their coach, suggests a dramatic offensive improvement. And while the defense, conversely, allowed less points than their yardage would dictate, they should be able to repeat that by returning 10 of 11 starters. On the surface, the Gamecocks' SEC schedule seems brutal, with road games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas. In fact, three of those are quite winnable; Carolina faces Georgia early, at a time when their defense may not have come together, Arkansas is overrated, and well, Tennessee, come on, this is a Spurrier-coached team. The LSU game, as well as home against Florida, should be the two keys - the Gators should be dangerous since SC gets them late in the year, but Carolina luckily gets them in Columbia. 11 of these games are winnable on paper, and when you look at Spurrier's Carolina tenure, he sometimes wins games he shouldn't (Tennessee and Florida two years ago ring a bell). When Spurrier became coach at Carolina, some people said that in three years, he'd have them as a national title contender. While perception may not be so at the moment, those people might be right.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Florida
Florida finished top-10 in yardage defense and at #21 in offense, so yes, they were a pretty good team last year. Still, they were quite lucky, as their wins over Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and of course, South Carolina, could've easily been losses. With only 6 returning starters on offense and 2 on defense, it almost doesn't matter, but I don't think a team so scarce on starting experience would be regarded as highly after an 8-4 season. Still, I don't think the team will be awful, just not a national title contender. Tim Tebow, at the very least, proved to be a great I-AA quarterback against Western Carolina, and he will be helped by two great receivers, senior Andre Caldwell and do-everything sophomore Percy Harvin. Also helping Tebow progress will be the offensive line, where four of Florida's 8 returning starters are located, including two 2nd team all-SEC players in C (RG in '06) Drew Miller and RT Phil Trautwein. The defense is much more of a question mark, returning only 2nd team all-SEC DE Derrick Harvey, SS Tony Joiner, 2005 starting FS Kyle Jackson, and a whole bunch of players who, in some cases, may have started one game. Florida's recruiting level is at the point where they can continually restock with young talent and, quite frankly, upperclassman talent, but replacing, you know, 4/5 of the defense should result in some growing pains. Still, at LSU is the one game on the Florida schedule that looks like an extremely likely loss. Home games at Tennessee and Auburn early could go either way, mostly due to the Gators' in experience, but Florida should be operating at full capacity by their games against Georgia, at South Carolina, and against Florida State. All in all, it should still be a good year for Florida -- although they're overrated as a top-5, and probably even a top-10 team, they should be at a similar level to 2005, 9 or so wins, and somewhere between the #3 and 5 team in the SEC as a whole.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Georgia
Georgia's offense wasn't THAT terrible last year - they finished around the middle of the NCAA in scoring, and while their yardage numbers were admittedly below-average, they still actually managed to gain more yards per game than Georgia Tech, who had, you know, the best player in college football last year in Calvin Johnson. And things should improve - while TE and leading receiver Martrez Milner departs, all starters return at the skill positions, and get back ex-starting WR Sean Bailey from injury. Sophomore QB Matthew Stafford should also improve greatly from a rough rookie campaign, where he threw for 1749 yards on only 53% passing and a 7/13 TD/INT ratio in 8 starts. The offensive line looks like a concern, returning only two starters, but apparently has impressed greatly between seasons. The defense, always a strength for UGA, was #9 in yardage last year, but the Bulldogs return only 3 starters after star CB Paul Oliver was declared ineligible and left for the NFL. Still, Georgia's defense is at a level where it remains consistently good year in and year out, and everyone returning on the depth charts is either experienced or was highly rated coming out of high school. While the defense should be down a notch from years past, especially facing Oklahoma State and South Carolina to kick off the year, the UGA defense should still be above-average. While this doesn't look like a national title-contender level team, Georgia should again be very good this year, especially later on. I could see them dropping games early both vs. South Carolina and at Alabama, or even vs. Oklahoma State, as both Stafford and players on the defense mature. However, once late September rolls around, it wouldn't shock me to see Georgia go on a tear and win their last eight games, with Florida at Jacksonville being the only obvious swing game. Georgia should be slightly improved over last year, and if Stafford develops as planned, seem very well-prepared for 2008.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Tennessee
Tennessee was an above-average team on both sides of the ball, but with four games that could've gone either way (vs. Air Force, Kentucky, and Florida, as well as at South Carolina), the Vols were lucky to win three of those and go 9-3 in the regular season. The offense should once again be solidly above-average, but may not be as great as you'd think with senior QB Erik Ainge, who's probably no worse than the SEC's #2 passer. The offensive line also returns three starters, and has enough experienced depth to at least remain steady, if not improve, despite the loss of All-American left tackle Arron Sears. The, perhaps temporary, loss of RB LaMarcus Coker, will be a concern, as while Tennessee returns some experienced backs in Montario Hardesty and Arian Foster, neither cracked 4 yards per carry last year. The receiving corps are the biggest concern of all, as the only returning WR of note is junior Lucas Taylor, who was #7 on the team with 14 catches for 101 yards last season. On defense, things generally look better, led by the linebacking corps of returning starters Jerod Mayo and Ryan Karl, and top backup Rico McCoy. The defensive line should also be constant, if not improved, as despite losing two NFL-caliber DTs, they should be replaced by two more with NFL-level talent in JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden. If either disappoints, however, there's enough talented youth at the position to at least play well. The secondary is the x-factor of the defense, as past 2nd team all-SEC free safety Jonathan Hefney, the next surest thing is probably uber-recruit true frosh CB Eric Berry. Still, much like the DTs, there's enough high-level talent that someone will stick. Really, this team...should be pretty good. And that is really all there is to say. This is a team this is completely unspectacularly above-average. Example, QB Erik Ainge. He's very good. He's not GREAT, but he's very good. And that's the story of this team on pretty much every level. And looking at the schedule, that'll be about how their season goes. Not a national title level, probably not an SEC title level, but probably not .500. Just...pretty good.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt actually wasn't all that bad last year after losing star QB Jay Cutler; the Commodores projected out to about a 6-6 team last season. And even better, 18 of 22 starters return for this year. Now-junior QB Chris Nickson played well after being thrown to the wolves in his first two games (at Michigan, at Alabama), throwing for 2085 yards and a 15/13 TD/INT ratio, as well as leading the team in rushing with 694 yards and 9 TD. He should improve, at least as a passer, and it'll help that he has two-time all-SEC WR Earl Bennett to throw to. The running game should also improve, as both Cassen Jackson-Garrison and 2005 starter Jeff Jennings return; luckily, they'll be running behind five returning starters on the offensive line. The defense should be improved, especially against the pass, as all four starters return in the secondary. The front seven, led by LB Jonathan Goff, should improve, but may not necessarily be especially great - the Commodores lose three starters, and Vanderbilt isn't the level of program that can bring in young recruits that can immediately play. As a whole though, Vandy should be improved, and the gap between them and other SEC teams isn't as wide as people think. They have a winnable out of conference schedule, with the only tough game being vs. Wake Forest, and winnable home games against Mississippi and Kentucky. Plus, again, Vandy is at the level where they can pull off an upset against one of the better teams, so the Commodores have an excellent shot at bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Kentucky
We'll start with the offense, since, frankly, that's the side of the ball that matters here. The Wildcats offense wasn't top 10 or top 15 as you'd expect, but was still quite above-average, and it should improve, mostly due to the talent at the skill positions: all-SEC WR Keenan Burton, 2005 all-SEC RB Rafael Little, and 2nd team all-SEC QB Andre' Woodson, who put up an insane line of 3515 yards on 63% passing with a 31/7 TD/INT. The offensive line's somewhat of a concern - they only return 2 starters, but with injuries to the line last year, there's some returning starting experience, so the unit should at least be decent. As for the defense, well, OLB Wesley Woodyard was an all-SEC player last year, and there's some returning talent, but that almost doesn't matter since the Wildcats D hemorrhaged yardage last year, faring better than only Louisiana Tech. On the plus side, DC Mike Archer was hired away by NC State for some unknown reason, but the replacement is DB coach Steve Brown. I suppose having the third-worst pass defense is an improvement over being responsible for the second-worst overall defense, so while the Wildcats D should improve to "respectably bad", I don't foresee a drastic turnaround. That said, there's enough offensive talent to win some fun shootouts, but Kentucky was lucky last year (~4-5 projected wins), and the schedule does them no favors. Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, and Florida Atlantic are an easy 3/4 of their OOC schedule, but the rivalry game against Louisville is, well, quite the opposite. The only SEC game in which Kentucky looks like a favorite is against Mississippi State, as they draw Vanderbilt on the road and miss Ole Miss. There's enough firepower there to maybe upset Tennessee at home, or win at Arkansas, but all in all, this looks like a drastic regression to the mean. Essentially, this team is like Texas Tech, but without the defense, and frankly, not as good an offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
SEC West:
1. LSU
A slam dunk. A top 15 offense last year, replacing the #1 draft pick with possibly a better QB (yeah, I said it.), and 8 starters returning from a top-5 defense. The only point of concern may be the loss of now-Florida State OC Jimbo Fisher, who will be replaced by Oregon's Gary Crowton; however, Oregon's offense did just as well as LSU's last year, so if there's any drop-off, it should be minor. The big focus will be on senior QB Matt Flynn, who's played very well (689 yards, 10/2 TD/INT) when called upon, but is replacing #1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell, who threw for 3129 on 68% passing with a 28/8 TD/INT last year. While Flynn may not match those numbers, I think LSU will still be improved at QB, as Flynn shouldn't make many dumb mistakes, such as, say, scrambling with less than a minute left and no timeouts when trying to come back against Auburn. I mean, who would ever do that? (Hint: JaMarcus Russell.) The Tigers also lose their top two WRs, but return Early Doucet, their just as talented #3. They also have an insane influx of new talent at WR, including 5'5" converted RB Trindon Holliday, probably the fastest man in college football; therefore, there shouldn't be much of a dropoff. LSU also returns four starters along the line, and has a USC-like amount of riches at running back, even with senior Alley Broussard quitting the team recently. On the other side of the ball, the #14 run defense in the country should be even better, as All-American DT Glenn Dorsey returns, as well as five other starters, including senior OLB Ali Highsmith and 2nd-Team SEC DE Tyson Jackson. LSU was #4 against the pass this year, and may actually now be the weakness of this defense, if only due to the loss of All-American free safety LaRon Landry. Starting CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are the two returning starters, but strong safety should be fine in the hands of Craig Steltz, who became the first LSU player with an interception in 4 straight games. Even if the offense experiences some problems transitioning to Crowton's offense, the defense is more than good enough to carry the Tigers. LSU also got lucky with the schedule, as possible threats Florida, South Carolina, and out of conference, Virginia Tech, all have to come to Death Valley, leaving the only real trap game as November 3rd at Alabama. Anything less than the BCS title game would be disappointment, and anything less than an SEC title would be disaster.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Alabama
Mike Shula got a pretty raw deal, letting Tyrone Prothro shatter his leg in a blowout aside, as after a 10-2 year in 2005, the Tide could've had double-digit wins last year rather than ending 6-7 like they did. Alabama outgained 10 of their 12 opponents, and 5 of those were close, along with a close loss to Tennessee. If they had won half of those close games, rather than 1 of 6, Alabama would've finished 8-4 in the regular season, and with some luck, actually could've hit 10 or 11 wins. The Tide offense was completely decent last year, and should take some steps forward with 9 returning starters. QB John Parker Wilson was perfectly fine last year, throwing for 2707 on 57% passing and a 17/10 TD/INT ratio, and should continue to improve; plus he has his top two WRs returning in Keith Brown and 2nd team all-SEC DJ Hall. The running game seems to be the weak point of the offense for the time being, as star RB Kenneth Darby and NFL-caliber FB Le'Ron McClain both graduate. Still, there's talent there, and the new stable of backs will be running behind an elite-level offensive line, led by super-soph LT Andre Smith and 2nd team all-SEC center Antoine Caldwell. Defense, as usual, was the strength for Alabama this year, and while that should be over the case early, things may be slightly rough early. as they only return 5 starters on defense and are switching to a 3-4. Still, things should be above-average, as both starting DEs return, and 2 of the 4 LB spots will be taken by top-tier sophomore Prince Hall and 2005 starting DE Keith Saunders. The rest of the front seven is one of those cases where everyone returning either has high talent or experience, and someone should stick and play at a high level. In the secondary, Alabama's top-20 pass defense should at least remain constant, as they return FS Marcus Carter, as well as all-SEC Simeon Castille and part-time starter Eric Gray at cornerback. Plain old regression (or in this case, progression) to the mean would account for an 8 or 9 win season, but the Crimson Tide are also lucky with their schedule, drawing possible threats Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee at home, as well as possible upset LSU. Road games at Florida State and, of course, Auburn may be tricky, but all-in-all this looks like a team poised to have a huge rebound season. And, quite frankly, Nick Saban is an upgrade over Mike Shula, even if the latter did kind of get the shaft. This should be a year similar to 2005, where Alabama surprises and becomes an SEC title contender, if not a title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Arkansas
Oh, this was a close choice. Arkansas was probably closer to a top-20 team rather than top-10, but were still a solidly above average team, around, say, an 8-4 level. The star of the show, and seemingly the unanimous choice for best player in college football, is RB Darren McFadden, who ran for 1714 and 14 TD last season. I've always thought McFadden was very good, but I never saw him as the runaway best player that he seems to be pegged as -- I don't think he's at, say, an Adrian Peterson level, but is better than, say, Marshawn Lynch. At any rate, McFadden and Felix Jones (1225, 6 TD) should once again be the top running back duo in the nation, even if the offensive line has some questions. Oh, and they have a top-tier fullback in Peyton Hillis. The passing game is much more of a worry, as star WR Marcus Monk will miss a few games, and the rest of the receiving corps is fairly unproven. QB Casey Dick is somewhat more proven, meaning that he's proven that he's really not that good. His TD/INT ratio at least remained positive at 9/6, but that 49.2% completion rate, not so much. The offense should still be somewhat above-average though, if only for the talent of their running backs. The defense has improved the last few years under DC Reggie Herring, and things should at least stay steady this year. The defensive line may be hurt a bit by an injury to DT Marcus Harrison, but the unit still returns two other starters, and players at the other two positions with starting experience. The secondary also returns three of their four starters. The weakness of the defense may be the linebacking corps, which returns one starter from 06 and one from 05, but does lose all-SEC Sam Olajubutu. Arkansas should be pretty good no matter what -- it's hard to gauge how much the loss of OC Guz Malzahn will hurt, mostly since McFadden and Jones should guarantee the offense will be above-average, and the defense should at least remain above-average. Like most SEC teams, at LSU looks like the one very likely loss, and Arkansas splits its luck otherwise, getting Auburn and South Carolina at home, but Alabama and Tennessee on the road. #12 or #14 seems like a bit much unless Arkansas gets some breaks, but the Razorbacks should be a solid top-25ish team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Auburn
Auburn was damn lucky last year, projecting out as about a 6-7 win team, but managing 10 in the regular season. The big concern on offense is the line, where senior King Dunlap returns at left tackle, but that's it, that's the list. While there is some upperclassman depth, there's very little in terms of starting experience, which should make the Auburn running game's performance interesting to watch. They lose NFL-caliber RB Kenny Irons, but I always found Irons fairly underrated, as the offense was just as good if not better when Irons was hurt and Brad Lester took over; still, Auburn backs have had some very good lines to run behind, and if that was the key to Lester's success, well, uh oh. QB Brandon Cox has been a three-year starter, but his stats last year were not overly impressive: 2198 yards for a 14/9 TD/INT ratio on 60.1% passing. Good numbers, but not blow away, though Cox does at least get 4 of his top 5 receivers back, losing only #1 WR Courtney Taylor. The defense was above-average last year, but given their yardage numbers, were quite lucky to finish at #7 in scoring defense. The Tigers return three of their front four, including all-SEC DE Quentin Groves, and the LB corps should also be a strength, as starting MLB Merrill Johnson returns along with super-soph and last year's part-time starter, OLB Tray Blackmon. The pass defense was #21 nationally last season, and should continue to be the defense's strength, as the secondary loses only star CB David Irons, and has enough talent to replace him. On the whole, Auburn's defense should remain above-average, but those offensive problems could result in any number of scenarios for the offense's performance. The schedule doesn't really pay them any favors, as the Tigers kick off the season with Kansas State and South Florida, either of which could be losses. Plus, Auburn gets Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia all on the road, greatly diminishing their chances of upsets there. Still, this looks like a solid team that should easily be bowl-eligible, but if you want to pick a SEC team that could pull an '05 Tennessee and collapse compared to last season (besides Kentucky, obviously), this may be the best shot.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs actually weren't too bad last year, as they performed at about a 5-6 win level, but had some bad luck, mostly in a defense that allowed much more scoring than the yardage would dictate. Hell, they only lost to Georgia and Kentucky by a field goal each, so with some luck, this team would be viewed in a much more positive light. The offense was pretty bad last year, but somewhat luckily?, the team gets back 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Bulldogs QBs suffered a bunch of injuries last year, but return their leading passer in junior Michael Henig, whose overall line of 1201 yards on 43.8 passing and a 7/9 TD/INT ratio, which is less than inspiring. He torched the Kentucky defense pretty well last year, though, so that proves...something, I'm sure. That he plays the quarterback position, we'll go with that. Plus they now have an insurance policy in top JuCo QB Josh Riddell. Things should also be better with a very experienced offensive line, as each projected starter started at least half of last season. The Bulldogs also return starting RB Anthony Dixon, who gained 707 and 9 TD last year as a true frosh, though he struggled with injuries. And much like at QB, MSU brings in an insurance policy, in this case top RB recruit Robert Elliott. The Bulldogs also return underrated TE Eric Butler, and WR Tony Burks, who led the SEC in yards per catch last year. They also add top-flight JuCo WR Co-Eric Riley, who may gain the #2 spot, and also has a great name. The defense is more of a question mark, to an extent. The front seven is a mixed bag - MSU returns 2nd team all-SEC DE Titus Brown and 2 of 3 starting linebackers, but past that it's top JuCo DT Jesse Bowman and quite a bit of question marks. The secondary also has good news and bad news - 2nd team all-SEC CB Derek Pegues returns and moves to free safety, alongside returning starter Keith Fitzhugh, but the CBs left are somewhat of a crapshoot. Still, the level of performance should remain the same, and some of last year's bad luck with scoring should be alleviated, and the defensive stats should be improved via, at least, regression to the mean. While Mississippi State plays West Virginia out of conference, the rest of their non-SEC slate contains Tulane, UAB, and Gardner-Webb, three easily winnable games. MSU also gets Ole Miss at home, and, remember, this was around a .500-level team this season: they could easily win at Kentucky, and if Sylvester Croom can pull off one his upsets that gets a coach fired (Florida in '04, Alabama last year), that would bring Mississippi State to bowl eligibility. And why yes, they do get Tennessee at home. Anyway, this is a team on the way up, and this seems like a situation similar to Vanderbilt in Jay Cutler's senior year - a shot at bowl eligibility, likely to take a step back next year, but well-positioned to be much improved in the future. Hopefully Sly Croom'll be around to see it.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
6. Mississippi
Don't hurt me, Ed Orgeron. The Rebels played at a 1-3 win level last year, and as bad as Mississippi State's offense was, Ole Miss's was even worse. And their defense was no good, too. There's some reason for optimism though, at least on offense, where 9 starters return, although that does include versatile QB/Soulcrushing Disappointment Brent Schaeffer. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis should once again be the standout on offense, as he gained 1000 yards and 7 TD last year, and will return behind an offensive line that returns both four starters and left tackle Michael Oher, one of the best in the nation. The receiving corps also returns pretty much everyone, including do-everything Dexter McCluster, and adds AJ Jackson, Brent Schaeffer's top WR in junior college. The defensive line should be the best part of the defense, as they return all four starters, but the Ole Miss LBs are a horribly inexperienced unit, returning only 7 tackles. The secondary is a mixed bag, as SS Jamarca Sanford and CB Nate Banks return, but past that, things are a question mark, especially at free safety. While there's lots of shiny talent here thanks to Ed Orgeron's excellent recruiting skills, this team sort of reminds me of the Minnesota Vikings - great along the offensive and defensive lines, with two great skill position players (McCluster/Green-Ellis, Taylor/Peterson), but hey, you're gonna need much more than that to win anything. Though hey, at least the Rebels have a I-A quarterback. And, fairly easily, the worst team in the SEC. Though, hey, 2009 looks good!
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE BIG TEN
Writing this intro after the fact. I dicked around with the format, which was a mistake, as this took forever to write. I'm hoping to knock out the rest of the conferences ASAP, so then we can get onto what really matters: my top 25.
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Michigan (#4 overall - AT: #8, LN: #3, SN: #3, SS: #5, ST: #6)
2. Wisconsin (#9 overall - AT: #4, LN: #6, SN: #8, SS: #3, ST: #18)
3. Ohio State (#12t overall - AT: #12, LN: #13, SN: #17, SS: #15, ST: #15)
4. Penn State (#17 overall - AT: #17, LN: #35, SN: #15, SS: #13, ST: #14)
5. Iowa (#32t overall - AT: #33, LN: #27, SN: #34, SS: --, ST: #32)
6. Purdue (#42t overall - AT: #42, LN: #51, SN: #40, SS: --, ST: #35)
7. Illinois (#52 overall - AT: #67, LN: #49, SN: #57, SS: --, ST: #43)
8. Minnesota (#63t overall - AT: #78, LN: #68, SN: #51, SS: --, ST: #74)
9. Michigan State (#67 overall - AT: #74, LN: #59, SN: #71, SS: --, ST: #70)
10. Northwestern (#68t overall - AT: #66, LN: #57, SN: #87, SS: --, ST: #67)
11. Indiana (#72 overall - AT: #60, LN: #76, SN: #74, SS: --, ST: #79)
OVERRATED: Wisconsin. They were overrated last year due to a fairly weak schedule, and while they're a very good team, they're not the #1 team in the Big Ten like some magazines have predicted.
UNDERRATED: Illinois. The Illini projected out to a 6-8 win team last year, and with almost everyone back, they're, at the very least, a top 25 darkhorse. If it wasn't for their head coach...
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Michigan
OFFENSE: The marquee value is here, as for the fourth year in a row, the offense will be spearheaded by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, each in the top few handful of players at their position. Add to that junior WR Mario Manningham, again one of the top few players at his position, and the Wolverines probably have the best triumverate of skill position players in the nation. The offensive line is the relative weakness of this unit, but as usual for Michigan, it still should be quite strong; while two starters depart, All-American left tackle Jake Long returns, and a number of top recruits are ready to fill in those two open slots.
DEFENSE: Here's the interesting part. Through 11 games, last year's Michigan defense, under then-first year coordinator Ron English, was historically good, especially at completely nullifying whatever rushing attack was thrown at them. Even after being gashed by Ohio State and falling apart against USC, the Wolverine D still allowed only a paltry 43 rushing yards/game on the year, and were the #8 scoring defense and #6 yardage defense for the season. But that was last year. The problem this year? Almost everyone's gone. The two defensive stars left are LB Shawn Crable and safety Jamar Adams, and having to replace five of the front seven turns the secondary from a relative weakness into the defense's strength. However, things aren't completely grim; there are players with experience, such as DE Tim Jamison and safety Brandent Englemon, and recruits are at Michigan's usual high talent level, including LB Austin Panter, the first junior college signing in Ann Arbor since 1997. While experience is lacking, talent is still there, and if Ron English is as great a DC as his first season suggested, the defense should still be strong, if not at the historic pace it set last year.
OUTLOOK: I've had some trepidation about putting Michigan atop the Big Ten, but Ohio State last year set the precedent of a team being able to succeed with a strong offense and a talented but young defense. Still, Lloyd Carr having expectations worries me, and the schedule is far from a gimme. Home games against Ohio State, Penn State, and an underrated Oregon team, as well as visits to Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois (yes, Illinois), should all be tests. If the defense comes together quickly, I could see Michigan going undefeated and in fact doing so quite easily; however, there is room for disappointment.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Penn State
OFFENSE: QB Anthony Morelli was a prized recruit coming out of high school, stolen at the last minute from Pittsburgh. After spending two years behind Zack Mills (remember him?) and Michael Robinson, Morelli finally got the chance to start as a junior, and quite frankly, he was kind of shitty. Still, he showed signs of improvement, and this season he should be more of a strength than a liability. RB Austin Scott was essentially the Frank Gore to Tony Hunt's Willis McGahee, as Hunt only got a chance to shine due to Scott's repeated injuries. Scott returns for one last shot, and the job is all his -- barring health problems, this should be a situation where despite losing a star starter, the Penn State running game should see little if any dropoff. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the conference, led by uber-juniors Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. This leaves the main concern, which is the offensive line. The OL loses two starters, including top-5 draft pick Levi Brown, leaving open spots at each of the two tackle positions. While there is some talent to take these spots, they don't seem to be at the level of, to use the team above that also has to replace two starters, a Michigan. While the offensive line could be much worse off, it's still the fairly glaring concern for this offensive unit.
DEFENSE: Up front is the main point of weakness for the Nittany Lions D, as the defensive line returns only one starter, DE Josh Gaines. Still, unlike the offensive line, the open slots along the defensive trenches are ready to be filled by top-tier prospects who have also had some experience as freshmen, such as Maurice Evans and Phillip Taylor. The LB corps should again be among the top few in the country, as top-tier senior Dan Connor moves from OLB to MLB, essentially becoming this year's Paul Posluszny, and talented junior Sean Lee is alongside him, essentially playing this year's Dan Connor. The secondary should be just as strong, as 3 starters return, led by junior CB Justin King, while the open CB slot should be filled by stud sophomore AJ Wallace. All in all, the combination of lots of experience and where that fails, lots of talent, should make this one of the better defenses in the country.
OUTLOOK: Penn State was the rare team that pretty much played like their record, winning and losing when they should've, short of getting lucky vs. Illinois. This may be the team with the least glaring weaknesses in the conference, as the main point of concern is losing two starters on a still fairly experienced offensive line. While Ohio State and Wisconsin are obvious concerns, they get both at home, leaving the 9/22 game at Michigan as the key to the season. And, as two years ago showed, PSU's more than capable of holding their own in the Big House. Last year's mediocre offense and top-15 defense should both improve, and Penn State, much like two years ago, is a darkhorse national title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Ohio State
OFFENSE: I'll start with the obvious, quarterback, where Ohio State loses last year's best player (whose greatness has been unfairly diminished in retrospect) in Troy Smith to someone named Todd Boeckman. No, I don't know either. He's a 23-year old junior who, surprisingly, runs quicker than Troy Smith, so at the very least he should be a fine caretaker QB. In fact, the receiving corps may be a bigger concern, as the Buckeyes lost their top two WRs in Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. The unit should take an obvious step back, but should also be better than one would think, as past returning starter Brian Robiskie there's the high level of young talent you would expect from a program like Ohio State. Plus, Ginn was always fairly overrated anyway. The running game is one thing that should be fairly steady from last year, as Antonio Pittman gives way to last year's frosh sensation, Chris "Beanie" Wells. He's very good! And, as seems to be en vogue in the Big Ten this year, Ohio State is replacing two starters on the offensive line; the talent level of the replacements is below Michigan but ahead of Penn State, so this isn't a glaring concern for OSU.
DEFENSE: Similar to Penn State, there's a lot of returning talent from a top-15 defense. The weakness is the defensive line, where only All-Big Ten 2nd teamer Vernon Gholston returns. There's enough talent on the depth chart to still be very good, but compared to other parts of the defense, this should be the weakness throughout the year. The linebackers, however, should be absolutely fine, as this unit is absolutely loaded. Slightly overrated but still great Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis returns in the middle, and he's flanked by returning starter Marcus Freeman and last year's top-tier JuCo recruit, Larry Grant. Essentially, the Ohio State LB corps is the defensive equivalent of USC's running backs in terms of depth, as the third string is probably better than the starting units for most teams. The secondary should also be a strength, as the Buckeyes return All-Big Ten CB Malcolm Jenkins opposite sophomore Donald Washington, who started 9 games last season, in addition to top-tier strong safety Jamario O'Neal. Free safety may be a weakness, as OSU loses starter Brandon Mitchell, but the unit as a whole should not see much of a dropoff.
OUTLOOK: Although the defense was slightly overrated last year, the team wasn't, and if anything, has been underrated in retrospect after the national championship loss. They were really good, people. Anyway, with almost everyone returning, this year's defense may live up to last year's reputation, and should be more than enough to carry the offense through any growing pains. OSU also lucks out with the schedule, as a game at Purdue is the only even marginal test in the first eight, so the offense should be humming by the final four of @ Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs., Illinois, and of course, @ Michigan. The Buckeyes should lose at least one of those two road games, but really, given the talent, the layout of the schedule, and the fact that, hey, Jim Tressel is a very good coach, it honestly wouldn't be a shock if Ohio State somehow found its way back in the title game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
4. Wisconsin
OFFENSE: The good news is that nine of eleven starters return. The bad news is the two who leave: three-year starting QB John Stocco and all-galaxy left tackle Joe Thomas. Still, the situation isn't completely dire; the QB depth chart is led by experienced senior Tyler Donovan and Kansas State transfer Allen Evridge, while stud sophomore Jake Bscherer looks to be the replacement for Thomas. As for the guys who return, they're led by last year's freshman AA running back PJ Hill, and 2nd team Big Ten TE Travis Beckum. All in all, the Wisconsin offense returns an experienced upperclassman (or PJ Hill) pretty much everywhere, but perhaps more importantly, they've also built talented depth, including stud recruits such as RB John Clay and OL Josh Oglesby.
DEFENSE: The defense was Wisconsin's strength last year as they had kind of a mini-Michigan thing going on, and after Michigan's late-season struggles, Wisconsin actually only finished behind Virginia Tech and LSU in yards allowed per game. While the defense doesn't have as much returning as the offense, this is still an experienced unit. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, and the fourth slot should be filled by part-time starting DE Kurt Ware. The linebacking corps also has one open slot, but rather than a senior, the MLB slot should be filled by talented sophomore Elijah Hodge, brother of Virginia standout and current Green Bay Packer Abdul. The secondary is the weakness of the D; while the Badgers return both starting CBs, including all-Big Ten Jack Ikegwuonu, neither of the new safeties is an upperclassmen nor an especially highly touted recruit.
OUTLOOK: Last year, Wisconsin did in fact play like a double-digit win team, but one thing always nagged at me: who'd they really play? They missed Ohio State, and Michigan pretty much stomped them for their one loss of the year. After that, the best team they faced was either a solid but unspectacular Penn State team, or the quite overrated Arkansas Razorbacks in the Capital One Bowl. Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly as far as overrated teams go; they weren't a team like Maryland who had a number of lucky wins (the Badgers' only real break was vs. Illinois), but rather had an inflated record simply due to a pretty weak schedule. Now, the Badgers do in fact have a lot of returning talent; still, I think this is more of a top-15 level team than the Big Ten championship favorite that some magazines have touted them as. They should have more than enough to beat, say, Iowa at home, fairly convincingly, but in games at Penn State or Ohio State, I wouldn't classify them as a heavy favorite, if even a favorite at all. Again, they should be an upper-echelon team, but the talent level has me thinking more "Big Ten title contender" rather than "national title contender."
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Illinois
OFFENSE: Might as well start with the QB, especially when he has one of the best names in the NCAA. Juice Williams was a stud recruit and started 9 games last year as a true freshman, even if he only threw for 1489 yards, a 9/9 TD/INT ratio, and an..interesting 39.5% completion rate. Still, with Williams's own talent, as well as how improved the offense should be in general, Juice should at least be respectable this coming year. Both starters at running back from last season, Pierre Thomas and EB Halsey, are now gone; however, the running game should at least hold steady, as new starter Rashard Mendenhall was the #2 rusher last season, and actually had comparable stats to Thomas. The receiving corps tells a similar tale; while the Illini lose some starters here, they gain quite possibly the top incoming HS recruit in Arrelious Benn, who should be an instant star. While the offensive line was mediocre at best last year, four upperclassmen starters return, so the unit should at least be passable, and allow Williams to improve.
DEFENSE: When you look at last year's statistics, few defenses were as unlucky as Illinois, who allowed a perfectly above-average 310.2 yards per game, but allowed a decidedly below-average 26.8 points a game. Combine that with, much like the offense, tons of returning talent, and this side of the ball should also be much improved for the Illini. In fact, the only real losses on the defense are DT Josh Norris and CB Alan Ball; the former slot could be filled by a number of talented upperclassmen or yet another top recruit, D'Angelo McCray, while Ball should be replaced by soph Travon Bellamy, who has some experience, with one start and 2 INT last season.
OUTLOOK: Yes, Illinois at #5. Really. As my study in December showed, this was a horribly unlucky team, closer to 7-5 or 6-6 than the 2-10 record they actually posted, as losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue were all winnable games. Add that to the fact that it was a horrible young team last year and that almost everyone comes back, and you can see the reason for optimism. However, there are two problems: One, the schedule is fairly hellish. Illinois draws three teams an echelon above them in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin at home, and draws a game that could go either way in Iowa (as well as Ohio State) on the road. Add to this a tough Missouri team in St. Louis, and that could be 6 losses right there. Now, while they could easily beat Missouri as well as steal one of those home and one of those road games, there's just problem: There is no reason to have faith in Ron Zook. Sadly. I want him to succeed, I really do, but he's bad at this. This could easily be a top-25 team, and based on on-field talent, they deserve this #5 ranking, but the combination of the schedule and the coach...uh oh. This should be the final benchmark as to whether or not Zook can succeed despite his continual top-five recruiting classes -- bowl eligibility or bust.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
6. Iowa
OFFENSE: Three-year starter/one-year disappointment Drew Tate leaves at QB, making way for sophomore Jake Christensen. Christensen was a top prospect coming out of HS, and he played decently over 5 games (285 yards, 2/2 TD/INT) as a redshirt frosh, so he should be at least capable. The running back corps is led by seniors Albert Young, whose talent is only matched by his injury history, and Damian Sims. If Young managed to make it through the season, he should easily surpass 1000 yards and then some, while Sims will be an above-average back if called upon. The receiving corps has gone from a weakness to a strength, as both top WR Dominique Douglas and Alamo Bowl star Andy Brodell reprise their roles as starters. Star TE Scott Chandler graduated; however, his loss is mitigated by junior TE Tony Moeaki becoming the new starter; Moeaki was highly regarded out of high school, and has done quite well in limited action over the last two seasons. The offensive line is the least experienced unit here; LT Dace Richardson and C Rafael Eubanks are in the top handful at their positions in the Big Ten, but past that, the OL loses two NFL draft picks and all-Big Ten guard Mike Jones. Part-time starter Seth Olsen should take the open right tackle spot, but the guard depth is somewhat mediocre past stud sophomore Dan Doering. However, Kirk Ferentz is somewhat of an offensive line guru, and while the Iowa O-Line isn't quite at the "Texas Tech QB" level of guaranteed success, it still shouldn't be much of a concern.
DEFENSE: Six of the front seven are returning starters, led by 2nd team Big Ten LB Mike Klinkenborg and Honorable Mention DE Bryan Mattison and DT Mitch King. Additionally, a healthy Kenny Iwebema can hopefully return to the form that made him all-Big Ten at DE in 2005. The secondary is the real concern about the defense, however. The returning CB duo of Charles Godfrey and Adam Shada should be as good as any in the conference; however, the Hawkeyes lose both starting safeties, and while the returning talent doesn't make the situation dire, it's still somewhat mediocre. Still, the defense was mediocre as a whole last season, and the returning talent, and perhaps more importantly, returning HEALTHY talent, should make the defense much-improved, especially against the run.
OUTLOOK: Iowa and Illinois are pretty much the same level of team - I gave Illinois the nudge since they easily have more talent, but Iowa is much easier to have faith in. The Hawkeyes are this year's lucky team that avoids Ohio State and Michigan, and they have an almost absurdly easy home slate, with the Illini being the only threat on the docket. At Penn State and at Wisconsin are the only probable losses, and that Illini game and at Purdue are the only two that could really go either way; quite frankly, I favor Iowa in either. The two main concerns for this team are the secondary and the offensive line; the former isn't much of a worry since the Big Ten is a running conference, and again, Kirk Ferentz deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the offensive line. Unless things completely collapse due to injury, Iowa should return to its usual path of nondescriptly winning 8-10 games.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
7. Purdue
OFFENSE: It's what the Boilermakers do best, as Purdue was the #10 overall and #5 pass offense in terms of yardage. Surprisingly, they rated nowhere near that high in scoring, so Purdue may get a little scoring bump due to regression to the mean. As for the players, well, almost everyone's back. At QB, junior Curtis Painter returns; he posted 3985 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage and a 22/19 TD/INT ratio last year - decent numbers that should be much improved this season. Also returning are two WRs that could very well be the best in the Big Ten, non-Manningham division: Notre Dame-shredding Selwyn Lymon and all-Big Ten Dorien Bryant. Also returning: #3 WR Greg Orton, starting TE Dustin Keller, and top two RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor. The only point of any concern is the offensive line, where they lose two starters with NFL talent. Still, the talent there is of a high enough quality where, in the big picture, concern shouldn't be too great. All in all, the unit should continue humming along as usual, and should increase their scoring output.
DEFENSE: Purdue had the sixth-worst yardage defense in the nation last year, but this side of the ball should be much improved, despite losing first-round DE/OLB Anthony Spencer. The line returns three of four starters, but the strength of the front seven should be the linebackers, where starters Stanford Keglar and Dan Bick return. The third spot should be filled by converted RB Anthony Heygood, who looked impressive during the spring, and top JuCo recruit Brian Ellis should also see time, likely at the MLB position. The secondary should also be much improved, as all four starters return. There's really not much to say about the Purdue defense - it's not top-tier in the conference, but should be much improved, hopefully due to more than just not playing Hawaii this season.
OUTLOOK: Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan back on the schedule, but Purdue should still remain bowl-eligible. The offense is high-powered, and the defense should at least be decent enough to keep them in almost every game (maybe not at Michigan.) This is the last of the three teams in the second tier of the Big Ten, and Purdue doesn't draw Illinois and gets Iowa at home, so there's a chance the Boilermakers could finish at #4 or 5. Purdue's somewhat of a blah team this year - there are no real swing games outside of Iowa at home, and maaaaaaybe at Indiana the last game of the season; the Boilermakers get Northwestern and Notre Dame at home, and I don't think they're good enough to beat Ohio State in West Lafayette. All in all, this season should wind up looking similar to last: 7-8 wins, and a decent bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
8. Northwestern
OFFENSE: Without 2002-2005 starting QB Brett Basanez, the Northwestern offense finished just outside the bottom ten in yardage last year, as defenses were able to stop star RB Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats' only weapon. The starter for the final 5 games last year, junior CJ Bacher returns, and while his numbers (1172 yards, 59% comp., 6/8 TD/INT) weren't much, he should improve to the point where Sutton can return the form that made him 2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. While the team loses top WR Shaun Herbert, the rest of the top five (including Sutton) return, all part-time starters last year. Since Northwestern runs four WR sets, the fourth slot should be taken by converted QB Andrew Brewer. The Wildcats also return three starters from a fairly disappointing offensive line; the two open slots should be filled by senior Adam Crum at LG and sophomore Kurt Mattes at RT, who was a top recruit out of HS. The offense should break out of last year's doldrums, and at the very least, be decent.
DEFENSE: The defense last year can best be classified as "not quite Purdue bad." Much like the offense, things should be much improved, as there is a good amount of returning talent. The entire starting defensive line returns, but the weakness of the Wildcats D should be the linebacking corps; while MLB Adam Kadela returns and there is some starting experience at the other positions, Northwestern lost its top LB in Nick Roach, and its #3 in Demetrius Eaton, so there should be a step back. The secondary should be the strength, as three-year starters CB Deante Battle, SS Brendan Smith, and FS Reggie McPherson all return, with the fourth spot occupied by Sherrick McManis, a part-time starter who covered Ted Ginn one-on-one last year as a true frosh. Much like the offense, the defense should, at the very least, ascend to decency.
OUTLOOK: Northwestern played roughly around their 4-8 record, and with how badly their statistics are compared with the nation as a whole, it's almost a shock they did that well. Still, this is a team that should be much improved, and for more than just not having to deal with the death of their coach, like last season. Additionally, the schedule is in place for bowl-eligibility, as Northwestern gets potential trap games against Nevada, Minnesota, and Indiana at home. If the Wildcats can win at Michigan State, which is quite possible, they could even make it to 7 wins! I don't know if they'll make it to a bowl this year, but at the very least, this is a program that's rebounding its way to better places.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Michigan State
OFFENSE: Although 2004-06 starting QB Drew Stanton was a 2nd round NFL draft pick, the Michigan State offense was only average, and even Stanton's stats weren't as impressive as his reputation: 1807 yards with a 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Junior Brian Hoyer steps in, and it actually wouldn't be a surprise to see him have better stats than Stanton last year. Despite losing their top three receivers, the WR corps may also surprise, as the Spartans led the NCAA in dropped passes last season; unless lightning strikes twice, things at receiver should at the very least be a wash. Either way, the running game should be the most consistent part of the offense; top two backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick return, and 4 of 5 starters return, including stud right guard Roland Martin.
DEFENSE: Michigan State's defense rested somewhere between Northwestern and Purdue, comfortably in the lower reaches of NCAA rankings. The Spartans actually weren't too bad against the run, but the pass? Hoo boy. Things should at least slightly improve in the secondary, as starting safeties Otis Wiley and Nehemiah Warrick return. Both starting CBs may have left, but there's still some experience, including part-time starter Kendell Davis-Clark. The front seven tells much the same story - there's some valuable experience lost, but enough returning where things should be somewhat of a wash. Of course, given last year's statistics, ehhhh.
OUTLOOK: I haven't really been a fan of the Mark Dantonio hire -- I mean, sure, he's a step up from whatever John L. Smith was, but he doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can lead MSU to Big Ten titles. He seems more destined to give Michigan State the type of success that Minnesota had under Glen Mason: a hell of a lot of bowl eligibility. And speaking of, the Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, actually have a shot at bowl eligibility this season. The Spartans schedule starts off with what should be two easy home wins against UAB and Bowling Green, and their next three home games, against Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Indiana, are all winnable. Unfortunately, MSU then draws Michigan and Penn State at home, along with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue on the road, all likely losses. That leaves at Notre Dame as the rubber game to reach .500, and the Spartans always play UND tough, and don't have John L. Smith to help them implode. All in all, I expect Michigan State to be at about the same level as last year -- fairly mediocre, but capable of pulling off an upset. Mark Dantonio'll just be doing it with a lot less talent than John L. did.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
10. Indiana
OFFENSE: QB Kellen Lewis came out of nowhere -- literally, he materialized out of nothing -- to be a revelation last year as a redshirt frosh, throwing for 2221 yards on 54.9% passing and a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. That's much better numbers than, say, a Juice Williams, and Lewis is well on his way to being an elite QB as an upperclassman. Lewis also doubled as the Hoosiers' leading rusher, but with top two backs Marcus Thigpen and Demetrius McCray returning, that hopefully shouldn't repeat. 2nd team all-Big Ten WR James Hardy leads a receiving corps that has had some losses via graduation, but also returns lots of starting experience. Also, the offensive line should be much improved, as four of five starters return, and the fifth will be experienced senior center Ben Wyss. The offense last year was in the average range, but should be improved, if only as Lewis matures behind that improved offensive line. If the running game is improved and healthier, the Hoosiers offense could be fairly surprising.
DEFENSE: While the defense wasn't as bad as Purdue's from a yardage basis, they were bottom-ten in points allowed, and were generally quite awful. Still, things should improve, as eight starters return. All of the top eight return along the defensive line, outside of top DE Kenny Kendal, and the LB corps will be much more experienced, led by Geno Johnson and Adam McClurg. The secondary should be improved, but may be the weakness of this team -- Second team Big Ten CB Tracy Porter returns, but the starter opposite him, Chris Phillips, looks to have lost his job to senior Leslie Majors. Sophomore strong safety Austin Thomas returns after starting half of last year, but free safety looks to be somewhat of a void, led by either converted kicker Joe Kleinsmith or converted receiver Nick Polk. While the defense should be improved, it doesn't feel like it's going to be much so - the best case should be that it becomes middle of the road, and either way the offense will carry this team.
OUTLOOK: The death of coach Terry Hoeppner casts a cloud over this season, and the promotion of Bill Lynch to interim head coach makes Indiana somewhat hard to evaluate. While this is an improving team with lots of reasons for optimism, the fact is, last year Indiana played two games under Lynch: at home against Southern Illinois and Connecticut. The former should have been an easy win, and the latter a 50/50 shot. The Hoosiers played poorly and lost in both. I considered putting Indiana in last given this evidence, but if I'm not going to punish Illinois for their coaching, it'd be unfair to do the same to the Hoosiers; plus, Lynch may perform better given more than a week or so's notice. Indiana also has the schedule for bowl eligibility - home games against Indiana State, Akron, Minnesota, and Ball State should all be winnable, and the Hoosiers could easily win two of three out of games at Western Michigan, at Northwestern, and at Michigan State. This year the Hoosiers should be improved, both as a statement of fact and as a must in the big picture -- a lost season here would end all momentum and could set the program back quite a bit.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
11. Minnesota
OFFENSE: Under Glen Mason, the Gophers were the Broncos of college football, even down to the cut blocking, churning out 1000-yard rushers like they were nothing. While the latest back in that tradition, Amir Pinnix, returns, Mason doesn't, and Minnesota will have to learn a new offense under Tim Brewster. There's returning talent on the offensive line, as the Gophers lose two starters but return pretty much all other notable depth, but how well things will be implemented remains to be seen. The aptitude of the running game will dictate how the offense goes, since there isn't much else returning outside of star WR Ernie Wheelwright. The Gophers offense really looks like a crapshoot as far as predictability; while a number of factors suggest a slide, new OC Mike Dunbar was the architect of some high-powered offenses at Northwestern - this could lead to a situation like Rice last year, where a team expected to have some trouble adjusting in fact suddenly flourishes in a spread-offense system.
DEFENSE: While the Minnesota D was decent scoring-wise, it was absolutely dreadful in yards/game, finishing ahead of only seven other teams. And things don't look to be getting much better, particularly after some off-field goings-on have decimated this side of the ball. The secondary looked to be a strength, but no more, as star CB Dominic Jones and #3 CB Keith Massey were both kicked off the team; the two starting safeties return, and part-time starter Desi Steib is the returning cornerback, but the loss of Jones specifically is a huge blow to the passing D. The front seven is better off, however. Potential breakout DE Alex Daniels, who actually started at running back at times last year, was also kicked off the team, but 6 of 7 starters return, led by 2nd team-Big Ten DE Willie VanDeSteeg. The team also gets a boost in Tennessee transfer DE Raymond Henderson, who was a top talent coming out of high school. Even though teams could pass on Minnesota at will, the run defense was still below-average last season; that should be the one clear improvement over last year.
OUTLOOK: My first instinct was to say that Minnesota was underrated by the pre-season mags, but after seeing how improbable a 6-6 team they were last season, and after losing Jones, Daniels, and Massey, definitely not. Head coach Tim Brewster is such an unknown that it's hard to say if it was a good or bad hire, but OC Mike Dunbar was a good hire; it's just that the transition to his offense may tank this season before any dividends can be reaped. Luckily, the Gophers have an OOC schedule of Bowling Green, Miami of Ohio, North Dakota State, and at Florida Atlantic, so they should win all of those, though they may drop one of the first two. The Gophers could've actually had a shot at surprise bowl eligibility, but they draw their two likeliest conference wins, Indiana and Northwestern, on the road. Hey, at least things should be better when the new stadium opens in 2009.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Michigan (#4 overall - AT: #8, LN: #3, SN: #3, SS: #5, ST: #6)
2. Wisconsin (#9 overall - AT: #4, LN: #6, SN: #8, SS: #3, ST: #18)
3. Ohio State (#12t overall - AT: #12, LN: #13, SN: #17, SS: #15, ST: #15)
4. Penn State (#17 overall - AT: #17, LN: #35, SN: #15, SS: #13, ST: #14)
5. Iowa (#32t overall - AT: #33, LN: #27, SN: #34, SS: --, ST: #32)
6. Purdue (#42t overall - AT: #42, LN: #51, SN: #40, SS: --, ST: #35)
7. Illinois (#52 overall - AT: #67, LN: #49, SN: #57, SS: --, ST: #43)
8. Minnesota (#63t overall - AT: #78, LN: #68, SN: #51, SS: --, ST: #74)
9. Michigan State (#67 overall - AT: #74, LN: #59, SN: #71, SS: --, ST: #70)
10. Northwestern (#68t overall - AT: #66, LN: #57, SN: #87, SS: --, ST: #67)
11. Indiana (#72 overall - AT: #60, LN: #76, SN: #74, SS: --, ST: #79)
OVERRATED: Wisconsin. They were overrated last year due to a fairly weak schedule, and while they're a very good team, they're not the #1 team in the Big Ten like some magazines have predicted.
UNDERRATED: Illinois. The Illini projected out to a 6-8 win team last year, and with almost everyone back, they're, at the very least, a top 25 darkhorse. If it wasn't for their head coach...
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Michigan
OFFENSE: The marquee value is here, as for the fourth year in a row, the offense will be spearheaded by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, each in the top few handful of players at their position. Add to that junior WR Mario Manningham, again one of the top few players at his position, and the Wolverines probably have the best triumverate of skill position players in the nation. The offensive line is the relative weakness of this unit, but as usual for Michigan, it still should be quite strong; while two starters depart, All-American left tackle Jake Long returns, and a number of top recruits are ready to fill in those two open slots.
DEFENSE: Here's the interesting part. Through 11 games, last year's Michigan defense, under then-first year coordinator Ron English, was historically good, especially at completely nullifying whatever rushing attack was thrown at them. Even after being gashed by Ohio State and falling apart against USC, the Wolverine D still allowed only a paltry 43 rushing yards/game on the year, and were the #8 scoring defense and #6 yardage defense for the season. But that was last year. The problem this year? Almost everyone's gone. The two defensive stars left are LB Shawn Crable and safety Jamar Adams, and having to replace five of the front seven turns the secondary from a relative weakness into the defense's strength. However, things aren't completely grim; there are players with experience, such as DE Tim Jamison and safety Brandent Englemon, and recruits are at Michigan's usual high talent level, including LB Austin Panter, the first junior college signing in Ann Arbor since 1997. While experience is lacking, talent is still there, and if Ron English is as great a DC as his first season suggested, the defense should still be strong, if not at the historic pace it set last year.
OUTLOOK: I've had some trepidation about putting Michigan atop the Big Ten, but Ohio State last year set the precedent of a team being able to succeed with a strong offense and a talented but young defense. Still, Lloyd Carr having expectations worries me, and the schedule is far from a gimme. Home games against Ohio State, Penn State, and an underrated Oregon team, as well as visits to Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois (yes, Illinois), should all be tests. If the defense comes together quickly, I could see Michigan going undefeated and in fact doing so quite easily; however, there is room for disappointment.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Penn State
OFFENSE: QB Anthony Morelli was a prized recruit coming out of high school, stolen at the last minute from Pittsburgh. After spending two years behind Zack Mills (remember him?) and Michael Robinson, Morelli finally got the chance to start as a junior, and quite frankly, he was kind of shitty. Still, he showed signs of improvement, and this season he should be more of a strength than a liability. RB Austin Scott was essentially the Frank Gore to Tony Hunt's Willis McGahee, as Hunt only got a chance to shine due to Scott's repeated injuries. Scott returns for one last shot, and the job is all his -- barring health problems, this should be a situation where despite losing a star starter, the Penn State running game should see little if any dropoff. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the conference, led by uber-juniors Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. This leaves the main concern, which is the offensive line. The OL loses two starters, including top-5 draft pick Levi Brown, leaving open spots at each of the two tackle positions. While there is some talent to take these spots, they don't seem to be at the level of, to use the team above that also has to replace two starters, a Michigan. While the offensive line could be much worse off, it's still the fairly glaring concern for this offensive unit.
DEFENSE: Up front is the main point of weakness for the Nittany Lions D, as the defensive line returns only one starter, DE Josh Gaines. Still, unlike the offensive line, the open slots along the defensive trenches are ready to be filled by top-tier prospects who have also had some experience as freshmen, such as Maurice Evans and Phillip Taylor. The LB corps should again be among the top few in the country, as top-tier senior Dan Connor moves from OLB to MLB, essentially becoming this year's Paul Posluszny, and talented junior Sean Lee is alongside him, essentially playing this year's Dan Connor. The secondary should be just as strong, as 3 starters return, led by junior CB Justin King, while the open CB slot should be filled by stud sophomore AJ Wallace. All in all, the combination of lots of experience and where that fails, lots of talent, should make this one of the better defenses in the country.
OUTLOOK: Penn State was the rare team that pretty much played like their record, winning and losing when they should've, short of getting lucky vs. Illinois. This may be the team with the least glaring weaknesses in the conference, as the main point of concern is losing two starters on a still fairly experienced offensive line. While Ohio State and Wisconsin are obvious concerns, they get both at home, leaving the 9/22 game at Michigan as the key to the season. And, as two years ago showed, PSU's more than capable of holding their own in the Big House. Last year's mediocre offense and top-15 defense should both improve, and Penn State, much like two years ago, is a darkhorse national title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Ohio State
OFFENSE: I'll start with the obvious, quarterback, where Ohio State loses last year's best player (whose greatness has been unfairly diminished in retrospect) in Troy Smith to someone named Todd Boeckman. No, I don't know either. He's a 23-year old junior who, surprisingly, runs quicker than Troy Smith, so at the very least he should be a fine caretaker QB. In fact, the receiving corps may be a bigger concern, as the Buckeyes lost their top two WRs in Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. The unit should take an obvious step back, but should also be better than one would think, as past returning starter Brian Robiskie there's the high level of young talent you would expect from a program like Ohio State. Plus, Ginn was always fairly overrated anyway. The running game is one thing that should be fairly steady from last year, as Antonio Pittman gives way to last year's frosh sensation, Chris "Beanie" Wells. He's very good! And, as seems to be en vogue in the Big Ten this year, Ohio State is replacing two starters on the offensive line; the talent level of the replacements is below Michigan but ahead of Penn State, so this isn't a glaring concern for OSU.
DEFENSE: Similar to Penn State, there's a lot of returning talent from a top-15 defense. The weakness is the defensive line, where only All-Big Ten 2nd teamer Vernon Gholston returns. There's enough talent on the depth chart to still be very good, but compared to other parts of the defense, this should be the weakness throughout the year. The linebackers, however, should be absolutely fine, as this unit is absolutely loaded. Slightly overrated but still great Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis returns in the middle, and he's flanked by returning starter Marcus Freeman and last year's top-tier JuCo recruit, Larry Grant. Essentially, the Ohio State LB corps is the defensive equivalent of USC's running backs in terms of depth, as the third string is probably better than the starting units for most teams. The secondary should also be a strength, as the Buckeyes return All-Big Ten CB Malcolm Jenkins opposite sophomore Donald Washington, who started 9 games last season, in addition to top-tier strong safety Jamario O'Neal. Free safety may be a weakness, as OSU loses starter Brandon Mitchell, but the unit as a whole should not see much of a dropoff.
OUTLOOK: Although the defense was slightly overrated last year, the team wasn't, and if anything, has been underrated in retrospect after the national championship loss. They were really good, people. Anyway, with almost everyone returning, this year's defense may live up to last year's reputation, and should be more than enough to carry the offense through any growing pains. OSU also lucks out with the schedule, as a game at Purdue is the only even marginal test in the first eight, so the offense should be humming by the final four of @ Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs., Illinois, and of course, @ Michigan. The Buckeyes should lose at least one of those two road games, but really, given the talent, the layout of the schedule, and the fact that, hey, Jim Tressel is a very good coach, it honestly wouldn't be a shock if Ohio State somehow found its way back in the title game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
4. Wisconsin
OFFENSE: The good news is that nine of eleven starters return. The bad news is the two who leave: three-year starting QB John Stocco and all-galaxy left tackle Joe Thomas. Still, the situation isn't completely dire; the QB depth chart is led by experienced senior Tyler Donovan and Kansas State transfer Allen Evridge, while stud sophomore Jake Bscherer looks to be the replacement for Thomas. As for the guys who return, they're led by last year's freshman AA running back PJ Hill, and 2nd team Big Ten TE Travis Beckum. All in all, the Wisconsin offense returns an experienced upperclassman (or PJ Hill) pretty much everywhere, but perhaps more importantly, they've also built talented depth, including stud recruits such as RB John Clay and OL Josh Oglesby.
DEFENSE: The defense was Wisconsin's strength last year as they had kind of a mini-Michigan thing going on, and after Michigan's late-season struggles, Wisconsin actually only finished behind Virginia Tech and LSU in yards allowed per game. While the defense doesn't have as much returning as the offense, this is still an experienced unit. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, and the fourth slot should be filled by part-time starting DE Kurt Ware. The linebacking corps also has one open slot, but rather than a senior, the MLB slot should be filled by talented sophomore Elijah Hodge, brother of Virginia standout and current Green Bay Packer Abdul. The secondary is the weakness of the D; while the Badgers return both starting CBs, including all-Big Ten Jack Ikegwuonu, neither of the new safeties is an upperclassmen nor an especially highly touted recruit.
OUTLOOK: Last year, Wisconsin did in fact play like a double-digit win team, but one thing always nagged at me: who'd they really play? They missed Ohio State, and Michigan pretty much stomped them for their one loss of the year. After that, the best team they faced was either a solid but unspectacular Penn State team, or the quite overrated Arkansas Razorbacks in the Capital One Bowl. Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly as far as overrated teams go; they weren't a team like Maryland who had a number of lucky wins (the Badgers' only real break was vs. Illinois), but rather had an inflated record simply due to a pretty weak schedule. Now, the Badgers do in fact have a lot of returning talent; still, I think this is more of a top-15 level team than the Big Ten championship favorite that some magazines have touted them as. They should have more than enough to beat, say, Iowa at home, fairly convincingly, but in games at Penn State or Ohio State, I wouldn't classify them as a heavy favorite, if even a favorite at all. Again, they should be an upper-echelon team, but the talent level has me thinking more "Big Ten title contender" rather than "national title contender."
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Illinois
OFFENSE: Might as well start with the QB, especially when he has one of the best names in the NCAA. Juice Williams was a stud recruit and started 9 games last year as a true freshman, even if he only threw for 1489 yards, a 9/9 TD/INT ratio, and an..interesting 39.5% completion rate. Still, with Williams's own talent, as well as how improved the offense should be in general, Juice should at least be respectable this coming year. Both starters at running back from last season, Pierre Thomas and EB Halsey, are now gone; however, the running game should at least hold steady, as new starter Rashard Mendenhall was the #2 rusher last season, and actually had comparable stats to Thomas. The receiving corps tells a similar tale; while the Illini lose some starters here, they gain quite possibly the top incoming HS recruit in Arrelious Benn, who should be an instant star. While the offensive line was mediocre at best last year, four upperclassmen starters return, so the unit should at least be passable, and allow Williams to improve.
DEFENSE: When you look at last year's statistics, few defenses were as unlucky as Illinois, who allowed a perfectly above-average 310.2 yards per game, but allowed a decidedly below-average 26.8 points a game. Combine that with, much like the offense, tons of returning talent, and this side of the ball should also be much improved for the Illini. In fact, the only real losses on the defense are DT Josh Norris and CB Alan Ball; the former slot could be filled by a number of talented upperclassmen or yet another top recruit, D'Angelo McCray, while Ball should be replaced by soph Travon Bellamy, who has some experience, with one start and 2 INT last season.
OUTLOOK: Yes, Illinois at #5. Really. As my study in December showed, this was a horribly unlucky team, closer to 7-5 or 6-6 than the 2-10 record they actually posted, as losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue were all winnable games. Add that to the fact that it was a horrible young team last year and that almost everyone comes back, and you can see the reason for optimism. However, there are two problems: One, the schedule is fairly hellish. Illinois draws three teams an echelon above them in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin at home, and draws a game that could go either way in Iowa (as well as Ohio State) on the road. Add to this a tough Missouri team in St. Louis, and that could be 6 losses right there. Now, while they could easily beat Missouri as well as steal one of those home and one of those road games, there's just problem: There is no reason to have faith in Ron Zook. Sadly. I want him to succeed, I really do, but he's bad at this. This could easily be a top-25 team, and based on on-field talent, they deserve this #5 ranking, but the combination of the schedule and the coach...uh oh. This should be the final benchmark as to whether or not Zook can succeed despite his continual top-five recruiting classes -- bowl eligibility or bust.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
6. Iowa
OFFENSE: Three-year starter/one-year disappointment Drew Tate leaves at QB, making way for sophomore Jake Christensen. Christensen was a top prospect coming out of HS, and he played decently over 5 games (285 yards, 2/2 TD/INT) as a redshirt frosh, so he should be at least capable. The running back corps is led by seniors Albert Young, whose talent is only matched by his injury history, and Damian Sims. If Young managed to make it through the season, he should easily surpass 1000 yards and then some, while Sims will be an above-average back if called upon. The receiving corps has gone from a weakness to a strength, as both top WR Dominique Douglas and Alamo Bowl star Andy Brodell reprise their roles as starters. Star TE Scott Chandler graduated; however, his loss is mitigated by junior TE Tony Moeaki becoming the new starter; Moeaki was highly regarded out of high school, and has done quite well in limited action over the last two seasons. The offensive line is the least experienced unit here; LT Dace Richardson and C Rafael Eubanks are in the top handful at their positions in the Big Ten, but past that, the OL loses two NFL draft picks and all-Big Ten guard Mike Jones. Part-time starter Seth Olsen should take the open right tackle spot, but the guard depth is somewhat mediocre past stud sophomore Dan Doering. However, Kirk Ferentz is somewhat of an offensive line guru, and while the Iowa O-Line isn't quite at the "Texas Tech QB" level of guaranteed success, it still shouldn't be much of a concern.
DEFENSE: Six of the front seven are returning starters, led by 2nd team Big Ten LB Mike Klinkenborg and Honorable Mention DE Bryan Mattison and DT Mitch King. Additionally, a healthy Kenny Iwebema can hopefully return to the form that made him all-Big Ten at DE in 2005. The secondary is the real concern about the defense, however. The returning CB duo of Charles Godfrey and Adam Shada should be as good as any in the conference; however, the Hawkeyes lose both starting safeties, and while the returning talent doesn't make the situation dire, it's still somewhat mediocre. Still, the defense was mediocre as a whole last season, and the returning talent, and perhaps more importantly, returning HEALTHY talent, should make the defense much-improved, especially against the run.
OUTLOOK: Iowa and Illinois are pretty much the same level of team - I gave Illinois the nudge since they easily have more talent, but Iowa is much easier to have faith in. The Hawkeyes are this year's lucky team that avoids Ohio State and Michigan, and they have an almost absurdly easy home slate, with the Illini being the only threat on the docket. At Penn State and at Wisconsin are the only probable losses, and that Illini game and at Purdue are the only two that could really go either way; quite frankly, I favor Iowa in either. The two main concerns for this team are the secondary and the offensive line; the former isn't much of a worry since the Big Ten is a running conference, and again, Kirk Ferentz deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the offensive line. Unless things completely collapse due to injury, Iowa should return to its usual path of nondescriptly winning 8-10 games.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
7. Purdue
OFFENSE: It's what the Boilermakers do best, as Purdue was the #10 overall and #5 pass offense in terms of yardage. Surprisingly, they rated nowhere near that high in scoring, so Purdue may get a little scoring bump due to regression to the mean. As for the players, well, almost everyone's back. At QB, junior Curtis Painter returns; he posted 3985 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage and a 22/19 TD/INT ratio last year - decent numbers that should be much improved this season. Also returning are two WRs that could very well be the best in the Big Ten, non-Manningham division: Notre Dame-shredding Selwyn Lymon and all-Big Ten Dorien Bryant. Also returning: #3 WR Greg Orton, starting TE Dustin Keller, and top two RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor. The only point of any concern is the offensive line, where they lose two starters with NFL talent. Still, the talent there is of a high enough quality where, in the big picture, concern shouldn't be too great. All in all, the unit should continue humming along as usual, and should increase their scoring output.
DEFENSE: Purdue had the sixth-worst yardage defense in the nation last year, but this side of the ball should be much improved, despite losing first-round DE/OLB Anthony Spencer. The line returns three of four starters, but the strength of the front seven should be the linebackers, where starters Stanford Keglar and Dan Bick return. The third spot should be filled by converted RB Anthony Heygood, who looked impressive during the spring, and top JuCo recruit Brian Ellis should also see time, likely at the MLB position. The secondary should also be much improved, as all four starters return. There's really not much to say about the Purdue defense - it's not top-tier in the conference, but should be much improved, hopefully due to more than just not playing Hawaii this season.
OUTLOOK: Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan back on the schedule, but Purdue should still remain bowl-eligible. The offense is high-powered, and the defense should at least be decent enough to keep them in almost every game (maybe not at Michigan.) This is the last of the three teams in the second tier of the Big Ten, and Purdue doesn't draw Illinois and gets Iowa at home, so there's a chance the Boilermakers could finish at #4 or 5. Purdue's somewhat of a blah team this year - there are no real swing games outside of Iowa at home, and maaaaaaybe at Indiana the last game of the season; the Boilermakers get Northwestern and Notre Dame at home, and I don't think they're good enough to beat Ohio State in West Lafayette. All in all, this season should wind up looking similar to last: 7-8 wins, and a decent bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
8. Northwestern
OFFENSE: Without 2002-2005 starting QB Brett Basanez, the Northwestern offense finished just outside the bottom ten in yardage last year, as defenses were able to stop star RB Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats' only weapon. The starter for the final 5 games last year, junior CJ Bacher returns, and while his numbers (1172 yards, 59% comp., 6/8 TD/INT) weren't much, he should improve to the point where Sutton can return the form that made him 2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. While the team loses top WR Shaun Herbert, the rest of the top five (including Sutton) return, all part-time starters last year. Since Northwestern runs four WR sets, the fourth slot should be taken by converted QB Andrew Brewer. The Wildcats also return three starters from a fairly disappointing offensive line; the two open slots should be filled by senior Adam Crum at LG and sophomore Kurt Mattes at RT, who was a top recruit out of HS. The offense should break out of last year's doldrums, and at the very least, be decent.
DEFENSE: The defense last year can best be classified as "not quite Purdue bad." Much like the offense, things should be much improved, as there is a good amount of returning talent. The entire starting defensive line returns, but the weakness of the Wildcats D should be the linebacking corps; while MLB Adam Kadela returns and there is some starting experience at the other positions, Northwestern lost its top LB in Nick Roach, and its #3 in Demetrius Eaton, so there should be a step back. The secondary should be the strength, as three-year starters CB Deante Battle, SS Brendan Smith, and FS Reggie McPherson all return, with the fourth spot occupied by Sherrick McManis, a part-time starter who covered Ted Ginn one-on-one last year as a true frosh. Much like the offense, the defense should, at the very least, ascend to decency.
OUTLOOK: Northwestern played roughly around their 4-8 record, and with how badly their statistics are compared with the nation as a whole, it's almost a shock they did that well. Still, this is a team that should be much improved, and for more than just not having to deal with the death of their coach, like last season. Additionally, the schedule is in place for bowl-eligibility, as Northwestern gets potential trap games against Nevada, Minnesota, and Indiana at home. If the Wildcats can win at Michigan State, which is quite possible, they could even make it to 7 wins! I don't know if they'll make it to a bowl this year, but at the very least, this is a program that's rebounding its way to better places.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Michigan State
OFFENSE: Although 2004-06 starting QB Drew Stanton was a 2nd round NFL draft pick, the Michigan State offense was only average, and even Stanton's stats weren't as impressive as his reputation: 1807 yards with a 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Junior Brian Hoyer steps in, and it actually wouldn't be a surprise to see him have better stats than Stanton last year. Despite losing their top three receivers, the WR corps may also surprise, as the Spartans led the NCAA in dropped passes last season; unless lightning strikes twice, things at receiver should at the very least be a wash. Either way, the running game should be the most consistent part of the offense; top two backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick return, and 4 of 5 starters return, including stud right guard Roland Martin.
DEFENSE: Michigan State's defense rested somewhere between Northwestern and Purdue, comfortably in the lower reaches of NCAA rankings. The Spartans actually weren't too bad against the run, but the pass? Hoo boy. Things should at least slightly improve in the secondary, as starting safeties Otis Wiley and Nehemiah Warrick return. Both starting CBs may have left, but there's still some experience, including part-time starter Kendell Davis-Clark. The front seven tells much the same story - there's some valuable experience lost, but enough returning where things should be somewhat of a wash. Of course, given last year's statistics, ehhhh.
OUTLOOK: I haven't really been a fan of the Mark Dantonio hire -- I mean, sure, he's a step up from whatever John L. Smith was, but he doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can lead MSU to Big Ten titles. He seems more destined to give Michigan State the type of success that Minnesota had under Glen Mason: a hell of a lot of bowl eligibility. And speaking of, the Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, actually have a shot at bowl eligibility this season. The Spartans schedule starts off with what should be two easy home wins against UAB and Bowling Green, and their next three home games, against Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Indiana, are all winnable. Unfortunately, MSU then draws Michigan and Penn State at home, along with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue on the road, all likely losses. That leaves at Notre Dame as the rubber game to reach .500, and the Spartans always play UND tough, and don't have John L. Smith to help them implode. All in all, I expect Michigan State to be at about the same level as last year -- fairly mediocre, but capable of pulling off an upset. Mark Dantonio'll just be doing it with a lot less talent than John L. did.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
10. Indiana
OFFENSE: QB Kellen Lewis came out of nowhere -- literally, he materialized out of nothing -- to be a revelation last year as a redshirt frosh, throwing for 2221 yards on 54.9% passing and a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. That's much better numbers than, say, a Juice Williams, and Lewis is well on his way to being an elite QB as an upperclassman. Lewis also doubled as the Hoosiers' leading rusher, but with top two backs Marcus Thigpen and Demetrius McCray returning, that hopefully shouldn't repeat. 2nd team all-Big Ten WR James Hardy leads a receiving corps that has had some losses via graduation, but also returns lots of starting experience. Also, the offensive line should be much improved, as four of five starters return, and the fifth will be experienced senior center Ben Wyss. The offense last year was in the average range, but should be improved, if only as Lewis matures behind that improved offensive line. If the running game is improved and healthier, the Hoosiers offense could be fairly surprising.
DEFENSE: While the defense wasn't as bad as Purdue's from a yardage basis, they were bottom-ten in points allowed, and were generally quite awful. Still, things should improve, as eight starters return. All of the top eight return along the defensive line, outside of top DE Kenny Kendal, and the LB corps will be much more experienced, led by Geno Johnson and Adam McClurg. The secondary should be improved, but may be the weakness of this team -- Second team Big Ten CB Tracy Porter returns, but the starter opposite him, Chris Phillips, looks to have lost his job to senior Leslie Majors. Sophomore strong safety Austin Thomas returns after starting half of last year, but free safety looks to be somewhat of a void, led by either converted kicker Joe Kleinsmith or converted receiver Nick Polk. While the defense should be improved, it doesn't feel like it's going to be much so - the best case should be that it becomes middle of the road, and either way the offense will carry this team.
OUTLOOK: The death of coach Terry Hoeppner casts a cloud over this season, and the promotion of Bill Lynch to interim head coach makes Indiana somewhat hard to evaluate. While this is an improving team with lots of reasons for optimism, the fact is, last year Indiana played two games under Lynch: at home against Southern Illinois and Connecticut. The former should have been an easy win, and the latter a 50/50 shot. The Hoosiers played poorly and lost in both. I considered putting Indiana in last given this evidence, but if I'm not going to punish Illinois for their coaching, it'd be unfair to do the same to the Hoosiers; plus, Lynch may perform better given more than a week or so's notice. Indiana also has the schedule for bowl eligibility - home games against Indiana State, Akron, Minnesota, and Ball State should all be winnable, and the Hoosiers could easily win two of three out of games at Western Michigan, at Northwestern, and at Michigan State. This year the Hoosiers should be improved, both as a statement of fact and as a must in the big picture -- a lost season here would end all momentum and could set the program back quite a bit.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
11. Minnesota
OFFENSE: Under Glen Mason, the Gophers were the Broncos of college football, even down to the cut blocking, churning out 1000-yard rushers like they were nothing. While the latest back in that tradition, Amir Pinnix, returns, Mason doesn't, and Minnesota will have to learn a new offense under Tim Brewster. There's returning talent on the offensive line, as the Gophers lose two starters but return pretty much all other notable depth, but how well things will be implemented remains to be seen. The aptitude of the running game will dictate how the offense goes, since there isn't much else returning outside of star WR Ernie Wheelwright. The Gophers offense really looks like a crapshoot as far as predictability; while a number of factors suggest a slide, new OC Mike Dunbar was the architect of some high-powered offenses at Northwestern - this could lead to a situation like Rice last year, where a team expected to have some trouble adjusting in fact suddenly flourishes in a spread-offense system.
DEFENSE: While the Minnesota D was decent scoring-wise, it was absolutely dreadful in yards/game, finishing ahead of only seven other teams. And things don't look to be getting much better, particularly after some off-field goings-on have decimated this side of the ball. The secondary looked to be a strength, but no more, as star CB Dominic Jones and #3 CB Keith Massey were both kicked off the team; the two starting safeties return, and part-time starter Desi Steib is the returning cornerback, but the loss of Jones specifically is a huge blow to the passing D. The front seven is better off, however. Potential breakout DE Alex Daniels, who actually started at running back at times last year, was also kicked off the team, but 6 of 7 starters return, led by 2nd team-Big Ten DE Willie VanDeSteeg. The team also gets a boost in Tennessee transfer DE Raymond Henderson, who was a top talent coming out of high school. Even though teams could pass on Minnesota at will, the run defense was still below-average last season; that should be the one clear improvement over last year.
OUTLOOK: My first instinct was to say that Minnesota was underrated by the pre-season mags, but after seeing how improbable a 6-6 team they were last season, and after losing Jones, Daniels, and Massey, definitely not. Head coach Tim Brewster is such an unknown that it's hard to say if it was a good or bad hire, but OC Mike Dunbar was a good hire; it's just that the transition to his offense may tank this season before any dividends can be reaped. Luckily, the Gophers have an OOC schedule of Bowling Green, Miami of Ohio, North Dakota State, and at Florida Atlantic, so they should win all of those, though they may drop one of the first two. The Gophers could've actually had a shot at surprise bowl eligibility, but they draw their two likeliest conference wins, Indiana and Northwestern, on the road. Hey, at least things should be better when the new stadium opens in 2009.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
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