USC-NOTRE DAME

#11 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #4 USC (9-1)
Hey, a fun test, for my education and yours. AN ANALYSES OF DEFENCES:

So, let's look at ND's opponents:
Georgia Tech: 258 net yards/124 pass yards vs. ND
Penn State: 417/225
Michigan: 368/220
Michigan State: 356/109
Purdue: 493/398
Stanford: 264/154
UCLA: 277/217
Navy: 341/43
North Carolina: 298/213
Air Force: 425/205
Army: 150/92

Now, let's find out the...let's call it the performance gap, sure. Basically, subtracting those numbers from the opponents' average numbers on the year, to try and see the difference the defense (in this case, ND's) made. The more positive the number, the better UND's defensive performance:

GT: 78.6/46.7
PSU: -69.6/-24.8
Michigan: 6.9/-34.2
Mich St: 0.8/118.6
Purdue: -71.1/-111.7
Stanford: -35.5/9.5
UCLA: 52.3/-12.5
Navy: 50/14.8
UNC: -19.5/-40
Air Force: -83.9/-109
Army: 111.7/39.8

Which works out to an overall gap of Notre Dame being +20.7 overall, and -102.8 against the pass, or, on a per-game basis, Notre Dame giving up 1.8 less yards than average overall, but 9.3 more pass yards per game. Though without the Michigan State implosion, that stat jumps up to 22. But anyway, let's do the same analysis for USC!

Performance gap!
Arkansas: 95.6/-2
Nebraska: 194.9/105.3
Arizona: 146.5/41.7
Washington State: -37.9/-27.2
Washington: -76.2/-18.2
Arizona State: 93.5/72.7
Oregon State: -42.5/-31.4
Stanford: -11.5/-14.5
Oregon: 30.7/-11.2
Cal: 142.8/82.8

And that works out to 535.9/197.4 on the year, so USC gives up 53.6 less yards than average overall, and 19.7 less pass yards.

So, let's work out the numbers:
Notre Dame's offense:
397.5 yards per game on average - 53.6 = 343.9
273.7 passing per game on average - 19.7 = 254

USC's offense:
392.2 yards per game on average - 1.8 = 390.4
250 passing per game on average + 9.3 = 259.3

And that gives USC the advantage. And that's assuming they don't carry over the momentum from the Cal game. Though Notre Dame DID just shut down...Army. But not UNC or Air Force. God, you know, the stats show that Notre Dame really isn't that far below average, but I can't take them seriously with that strength of schedule. And, really, that about sums it up. Do I give UND a chance? Yes, though significantly less so at USC. Although part of me almost wants to see Notre Dame win just so the Ohio State-Michigan rematch becomes that much closer to a reality. But I really think USC's the better team, and as those stats show, they have the hotter defense. Notre Dame's best defensive performances were against Georgia Tech and Michigan State, an erratic team and one that imploded, at the beginning of the year, and comparing that to USC and Cal, just forget it.
My Pick: USC
Confidence (out of 5): 2