THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#22 Boston College (9-2) @ Miami (5-6)
Well, I've lost all faith in Miami. That said, BC is vulnerable, Miami's at home with their backs against the wall, and maybe, just maybe, they can try to save Larry Coker's job with a win here and then what is sure to be a big win over...San Jose State, probably, in the MPC Computers Bowl. Unless Boise gets upset by Nevada, in which case the Broncos get that bowl bid and could very well murderize the Canes. But I'm getting ahead of myself. An upset, and god, the fact that Miami winning would be an upset is just horrible, but the Canes could win here. But if they couldn't beat Virginia, I'm not going to count on it.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 1
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Northern Illinois (6-5) @ Eastern Michigan (1-10)
EMU's probably the biggest disappointment in the MAC, at least outside of how suddenly Garrett Wolfe's Heisman hopes hit a brick wall. Wolfe's back on a hot streak, so he should be able to continue it here, but anything can happen in the MAC.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 2
12:00 PM
#23 Texas A&M (8-3) @ #7 Texas (9-2)
Texas has the #2 run defense in the country behind Michigan, so A&M's probably going to have to do it with the pass. Stephen McGee's been decent lately, but I don't know if decent can cut it here. Plus the Texas offense was just fine without McCoy, and with him, there could be trouble. A&M's a good team capable of pulling off the upset, but the Horns are just, you know, better.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
Kent State (6-5) @ Ball State (4-7)
Meh. Two pretty alright MAC teams. Kent's slightly better, Ball's at home and seems slightly hotter, so I'll go with the Cardinals.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Ohio (8-3) @ Miami of Ohio (2-9)
Ohio's the best team in the MAC. Now that I've said that, they'll probably lose, but Miami shouldn't even have beaten Bowling Green.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Central Michigan (7-4) @ Buffalo (2-9)
Garrett Wolfe shredded the CMU offense, but yep, that'll happen. And he's not on Buffalo. And, you know, it's Buffalo.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
#6 LSU (9-2) @ #8 Arkansas (10-1)
#6 run defense in the country @ the #4 run offense! Because, come on, that's the matchup that matters. C'mon, let's rank the run defenses that Arkansas has played this year:
USC #13, Alabama #38, Mississippi State #40, Auburn #48, South Carolina #76, Tennessee #77, Louisiana-Monroe #89, Vanderbilt #90, Mississippi #93, Utah State #109
McFadden's lines from those top four:
USC: 9 car, 42 yds, 4.7 YPC
Bama: 25 car, 113 yds, 4.5 YPC
Miss St: 26 car, 84 yds, 3.2 YPC
Auburn: 28 car, 145 yds, 5.2 YPC
Hmmm. So Arkansas can definitely run on GOOD defenses, it just remains to be seen how they'll do against a great one. AND the Mississippi State game was the most recent. I still favor LSU's defense, and really just the team in general, but Arkansas could just as easily win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Tulane (4-7) @ Tulsa (7-4)
Tulsa's slipping, but Tulane's an all-passing team when they can even get that done, and Tulsa has the #1 pass defense in C-USA. Uh oh!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
Colorado (2-9) @ #21 Nebraska (8-3)
Nebraska should easily win. What else is there to say?
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Western Michigan (7-4) @ Akron (5-6)
Yep, these records are about accurate. Lots of MAC parity, so either team can win. The Broncos are better, but Akron's at home and staring bowl eligiblity in the face, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Oregon (7-4) @ Oregon State (7-4)
Two teams playing well, even if turnovers have led to some recent losses. Pretty much a crapshoot, so I'll go with the team I think has more talent.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Air Force (4-6) @ UNLV (1-10)
UNLV's probably better than that 1-10 record, but Air Force is definitely better than 4-6. Air Force does the flexbone style, so it's mostly rushing, but more passing than, say a Navy. And UNLV doesn't have that great a run defense, and hey, if Air Force can throw for 300 against NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER NOTRE DAME!, I think they can against the Rebels.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Fresno State (3-7) @ Louisiana Tech (3-8)
Fresno's on a comparative roll, beating up on the cupcakes of the WAC. Hey, Louisiana Tech is one of those!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
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