SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#3 Florida (10-1) @ Florida State (6-5)
I don't get this myth about Florida's offense not playing well -- they're gaining yards fine. As for FSU, sigh. It's a big rivalry game and anything can happen, but not really dominating Western Michigan doesn't give me much hope for the post-Jeff Bowden era in 2006. And especially not in this game.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 2
South Florida (7-4) @ #5 West Virginia (9-1)
USF's pretty good, as that record obviously shows, led by surprise QB Matt Grothe. The WVU defense is vulnerable, but on the other hand, if the USF defense hasn't been vulnerable themselves, they will be here. The Mountaineers just have too many weapons. Well, two.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (4-7) @ #17 Rutgers (9-1)
Rutgers should be focused, Syracuse should have a letdown after that season-defining win against...Connecticut.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
Virginia (5-6) @ #18 Virginia Tech (9-2)
Virginia's inconsistent, but Tech's probably the hottest team in the ACC. The one piece of evidence in Virginia's favor is that the Cavs schooled Miami while Tech beat them but should've lost, but all in all, I'm going to have to take the Hokies.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
South Carolina (6-5) @ #25 Clemson (8-3)
The Gamecocks are a good team and a bit snakebit, while Clemson's frustratingly inconsistent and kind of down a bit lately. Ehhhhh. This is pretty much a pick-em, but I'll take the slight talent edge.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (3-8) @ Central Florida (3-8)
Yep, those records are about right. UCF's slightly hotter (meaning, lukewarm) and at home, so there you go.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Cincinnati (6-5) @ Connecticut (4-6)
Connecticut's never lost a home game in November since going I-A. Cincinnati hasn't won a road game all year (admittedly, all of those road games are against Top 25 teams). The Huskies are way better at home. And it's a year of Big East teams having huge letdowns after season-defining wins. Yep.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
North Carolina (2-9) @ Duke (0-11)
UNC has a pulse. Advantage, Tar Heels.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas (6-5) @ Missouri (7-4)
The Tigers are snakebit lately, playing well but losing to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa State. Kansas is playing well, and this is a big rivalry game, so stats can somewhat be thrown out the window, but I have more confidence in Missouri winning big than the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Kentucky (7-4) @ #15 Tennessee (8-3)
Kentucky will be getting to a bowl game. Wildcat fans, just keep repeating that to yourselves while trying to block out this game as it happens.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Mississippi State (3-8) @ Mississippi (3-8)
One of these teams should have beaten Arkansas last week. One of these teams should be 1-11 against I-A competition, and got annihilated but still won at home against Vanderbilt.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
#9 Oklahoma (9-2) @ Oklahoma State (6-5)
OK State has a pretty good offense, but, well, Oklahoma is back. And held Texas Tech to 250 passing yards. So, uh, ehhhh. Oklahoma State's a very good team, so I definitely give them a chance, but the Sooners are playing as well as anyone right now.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (2-8) @ New Mexico (5-6)
New Mexico's a competitive team that could've beaten Utah and TCU. San Diego State is...not.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
SMU (6-5) @ Rice (6-5)
Two pretty good teams. Really not much more to say, except for, you know, the hell? SMU and Rice, two pretty good teams? And this isn't year 10 in NCAA Football 2004? Push goes to the home team, and I think Rice is slightly better anyway.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:05 PM
New Mexico State (2-8) @ Utah State (1-10)
I am shocked that Utah State is as high as the #115 yardage offense in the country. You suck, North Texas, Florida International, Stanford and Temple. NMSU throws for a boatload of yards that amount to pretty much nothing, UNTIL NOW! If the Aggies don't get their first I-A win in two seasons HERE, then they're hopeless.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#10 Louisville (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-5)
Tyler Palko's having a good year under the radar, but that Pitt defense is DOA.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2) @ Georgia (7-4)
Uh oh, Georgia's getting their shit together. GT could easily just throw to Calvin Johnson and dominate all game long, but all season long, GT's also shown a tendency to forget they have the best player in the nation and just be mediocre. And mediocrity will get them nowhere here.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
#24 BYU (9-2) @ Utah (7-4)
BYU's vulnerable, as they're solidly the best team in the MWC, but not THAT far ahead. Utah could beat them, but the Utes have been inconsistent all year. They could show up, they should show up, but I'm still not going to bet on it.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 1
Troy (5-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (7-4)
SHOWDOWN! Middle Tennessee's better. Though Sun Belt parity means that probably means little.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
#14 Boise State (11-0) @ Nevada (8-3)
Like a better version of that BYU-Utah game. I...really don't know here. If it was at Boise, no chance, Broncos win, stamp your tickets or whatever. Nevada's a pretty good team, they've been consistent lately, and they actually have a very good chance at knocking the Broncos off. But I still think Boise's better, and I really can't pick against them. They're just so close!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arkansas State (6-5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5)
ASU's the better team, but both teams have their good and bad days. Namely, ULL beating Houston in the "...the hell?" game of the year, and Arkansas State being shut out at Florida Atlantic. I'll just go with talent here.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
5:05 PM
San Jose State (6-4) @ Idaho (4-7)
SJSU seems a bit lucky, but then again, there's that 476-yard rushing day they had against Louisiana Tech. The fact that SJSU's the favorite here just means, what the hell. The WAC is crazy, I don't know.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona State (6-5) @ Arizona (6-5)
Well, you know, just look at the momentum. Arizona, winning big games! Arizona State, kind of sucking! About explains it all.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
TCU (8-2) @ Colorado State (4-6)
TCU's just playing much better right now, and the Horned Frogs' 52-0 thrashing of SDSU is just the exclamation point. CSU's about an average team, so it's not like this has a 100% chance of being a 100% blowout, but really, don't expect much.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
East Carolina (6-5) @ NC State (3-8)
NC State is dead. Just SO dead. No pulse. ECU's a pretty good C-USA team, and really the better team. The Wolfpack could get up because it's the last home game, or to try and save Chuck Amato's job since I imagine he's hanging by a thread, but, again, ECU's just better.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Florida International (0-10) @ Florida Atlantic (4-7)
FAU's pretty bad. FIU's REALLY bad. What a choice here.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
North Texas (3-8) @ Louisiana-Monroe (2-8)
Hoo boy. ULM's not very good, but North Texas is just in complete disarray. A lame duck coach turning on the school and just...ugh, ugly. I can't imagine the Mean Green will be ready or capable in this game, plus they're away. Good for the Warhawks.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Marshall (5-6) @ Southern Miss (7-4)
USM's defense is capable of shutting down anyone in the conference. Marshall would definitely not be in the division title race in C-USA West, and might actually be in last there. Yep.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#19 Wake Forest (9-2) @ Maryland (8-3)
I don't even know. Wake's still a fine team, but they're away, and...God. If Maryland pulls this off, I might just launch a string of profanities. But I'll definitely laugh if the Terps have any expectations next year.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#11 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #4 USC (9-1)
I'll give this one its own post either later tonight or sometime Friday.
9:00 PM
Memphis (1-10) @ UTEP (5-6)
All those teams above I said are dead? Memphis might be deader.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
11:05 PM
Purdue (8-4) @ Hawaii (9-2)
This should be a fun shootout, as both teams are all-offense, no-defense. But Hawaii's offense is better, and that Purdue D might be jetlagged. If only this was on TV.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
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