MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE

So. It's a huge fuckin' game. Here we go:

I'll start with Michigan. In every game, Michigan has been able to accomplish two things: running the ball, and stopping the opponent from doing so. Two things result from this:

1) The gameplan is designed for close wins. This is why I don't really buy the argument for higher margins of victory making OSU's season more impressive. Of course it does, their whole strategy is to blow the other team out of the water.

2) It's on the opposing quarterback to beat Michigan.

Now, is Troy Smith that quarterback? Brady Quinn isn't, but the Notre Dame offense has allowed twice as many sacks as Ohio State's (and USC's, since I have a feeling I'll be repeating this stat in the BCS title game), 26 to 13. The answer is that Troy Smith definitely COULD be. Only two games that he's had prove otherwise:

vs. Penn State: 12/22, 115, TD, 2 INT
@ Illinois: 13/23, 108, INT

In the Penn State game, Smith was able to at least pull off enough big plays to win the game handily. But will those big plays be there against Michigan? If they weren't against Illinois, and they weren't, then they may not be.

Ohio State is #10 in the country in rushing yards allowed/game, but let's take a look at how the best running backs have done against the Buckeyes:

Northern Illinois's Garrett Wolfe: 172 yards, 6.6 yards per carry
Texas's Selvin Young: 94 yards, 8.5 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 135 yards, 5.6 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 48 yards, 4.4 YPC
Illinois's Pierre Thomas: 58 yards, 7.3 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 57 yards, 4.8 YPC

The amounts may not be high, but those yards per carry aren't a good sign. It's suggesting that Ohio State's low rushing yards allowed aren't due to a good run defense, but the fact that teams need to play catch-up through the air.

For the record, let's look at how many of the same backs did against Michigan, who gives up 1.3 yards a carry to Ohio State's 3.2:

Notre Dame's Darius Walker: 25 yards, 2.5 YPC
Wisconsin's Pat Hill Jr.: 54 yards, 2.7 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 33 yards, 2.5 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 17 yards, 1.9 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 6 yards, 0.9 YPC

Michigan's holding running backs to less yards, often overall and especially per carry, even though their gameplan allows more opportunities for the opposition to run the ball than Ohio State's. And on a side note, the fact that Michigan's overall numbers are so much lower, factoring in that Michigan had to play Wisconsin (another "rushing and defense" team and a bit of a mini-Michigan) where OSU didn't makes things that much more impressive.

So, what have we learned?

-Michigan has more consistently implemented their gameplan than Ohio State has been able to.
-Michigan has a gameplan focused on running the ball and not allowing the other team to.
-Ohio State has a vulnerable run defense when their opposition actually has the opportunity to run the ball with a good running back.
-Michigan has stopped many of the same backs from accomplishing anything.

And this is why I pick Michigan.

Now, to play devil's advocate. In order for Ohio State to win, I believe they need to jump out to an early lead, get momentum on their side, and force Michigan to deviate from their run-based offensive gameplan. The likeliest way this could happen is if Michigan beats themselves. If the Wolverines are too amped up, if the Wolverines make a mistake early resulting in a failed drive or a turnover, and OSU is able to score in one of their first two or so drives, I could see the game being lost for the Wolverines right there. I'm not sure how much of a factor the death of Bo Schembechler will be -- it should be extra motivation for the Wolverines, although it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the team will be even more excited and amped up because someone died.

So, in conclusion, this is...well, obviously, quite the intriguing game. Based on statistics and really, just who I think the better team is, I give Michigan about a 75% chance of winning. However, could I see the scenario outlined above, where Michigan gets the yips and loses the game before the end of the first quarter? Easily. Hence that 25 percent. So, finally:

My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2

And, just for shits and giggles...
Michigan 24, Ohio State 13

Why not?