THE CONSENSUS:
C-USA East:
1. Southern Miss (#41 overall - AT: #41, LN: #41, SN: #24, ST: #53)
2. Central Florida (#77 overall - AT: #62, LN: #91, SN: #69, ST: #84)
3. Marshall (#83 overall - AT: #73, LN: #92, SN: #77, ST: #92)
4. East Carolina (#89 overall - AT: #86, LN: #87, SN: #92, ST: #86)
5. Memphis (#95 overall - AT: #92, LN: #104, SN: #102, ST: #72)
6. UAB (#110 overall - AT: #107, LN: #107, SN: #110, ST: #117)
C-USA West:
1. Houston (#51 overall - AT: #56, LN: #39, SN: #42, ST: #69)
2. Tulsa (#60 overall - AT: #52, LN: #50, SN: #60, ST: #87)
3. SMU (#74t overall - AT: #69, LN: #65, SN: #75, ST: #88)
4. UTEP (#84 overall - AT: #95, LN: #67, SN: #93, ST: #83)
5. Rice (#99 overall - AT: #83, LN: #97, SN: #99, ST: #106)
6. Tulane (#109 overall - AT: #106, LN: #111, SN: #106, ST: #107)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
C-USA East:
1. Southern Miss
RB Damion Fletcher was a revelation as a freshman last year, and he'll pair up with freshman Antwain Easterling to form an extremely formidable 1-2 punch. The offensive line may be somewhat shaky, returning only the starting tackles, but senior QB Jeremy Young should improve upon last year's decent season. He'll also have all-CUSA TE Shawn Nelson to throw to. The defense, as usual, is the real star of the show, returning eight starters. The only weakness is the cornerbacks, where there's talent, but not experience. Still, the talent everywhere else on D is at the level where USM'll be more than fine. The Golden Eagles are solid on both sides of the ball, though much moreso on defense, and while they may be a tad overrated nationally (or just by The Sporting News), they have a good shot at a 10-win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Central Florida
UCF was in a number of close games last year, and easily could've been bowl-eligible instead of 4-8. The offense was horribly unlucky in scoring vs. yardage, and should improve greatly with 8 starters returning. Senior QB Kyle Israel is not one of those returning starters, but he performed very well in spot duty last year, and should improve upon last year's numbers at the position. 2nd team all-CUSA RB Kevin Smith also returns behind a line that's the most experienced in the conference. Last year's poor defense should be very much improved, returning 9 starters, including 2005 all-CUSA CB Joe Burnett. While the Golden Knights have a tough out of conference schedule, regression to the mean should get them to bowl-eligibility; if they improve even more than expected, this could be the surprise team of the conference.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Memphis
Memphis returns 8 starters on each side of the ball, and thus should be way better than last year. The offense is also now in its second year in a new system, so returning seniors QB Martin Hankins and RB Joseph Doss should both improve from last year's average campaigns. And really, the same is true for an offensive line that was disappointing last season. The defense should see a similar improvement - two starters depart, and their spots should be filled by two talented transfers from the SEC - DT Freddie Barnett (Arkansas) and SS Tony Bell (Auburn). Memphis is a greatly improved team with more talent, a more stable coaching situation, and an easier schedule than last year. With an easy OOC slate and getting Marshall, ECU and SMU all at home, Memphis actually has a shot at inverting last year's 2-10 record and going 10-2. Either way, Memphis is probably the odds-on favorite to see the nation's biggest increase in wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. East Carolina
The key to ECU's offense will be the play at quarterback; four-year starter James Pinkney is gone, and sophomore Rob Kass takes over with very little experience (30 attempts for 184 yards and an INT). A much-improved offensive line should help him develop, at least after he's back from a suspension in the season opener. Play from the running backs should also be much improved, as the unit has struggled with injuries, and they bring in some talented freshmen. The defense, as it was last year, should be the strength of the team. Everyone in the front seven returns, as does senior CB Travis Williams. There are holes in the rest of the secondary, one of which will be filled by converted OLB Van Eskridge, but the unit has some upside, bringing in some very talented redshirt freshmen. The defense should be strong enough to keep the Pirates in their conference games, but it looks like a rebuilding year. Bowl eligibility isn't out of the question, especially if the QB play is decent, but a tough out of conference schedule (Virginia Tech, West Virginia, NC State) and drawing Houston out of the West makes it very far from a guarantee:
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-6 conference wins
5. Marshall
Senior QB Bernard Morris was disappointing last year, partly due to injuries; he should greatly improve upon last year's 8/12 TD/INT ratio. He'll benefit from a strong receiving corps that returns most of its talent, and brings in excellently-named JuCo WR Darius Passmore. The offensive line should be very strong, led by all-CUSA center Doug Legursky, but the running game will probably take a few steps back after the departure of NFL-caliber RB Ahmad Bradshaw. Last year's below-average defense should be much improved; seven starters return, led by all-CUSA DE Albert McClellan, and the departures are spread throughout the levels of the D. The one key should be health; outside of the defensive line, depth behind the projected starters seems fairly shaky. Marshall compares well to ECU, and faces much the same situation; a tough out of conference schedule (Miami, WVU, Cincinnati) and drawing Houston and Tulsa out of the West may put a damper on the bowl eligibility hopes of an improved team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
6. UAB
The Blazers return only 8 starters from what was just a plain old bad team last year, which isn't a good sign. Last year's offense was poor, and it seems like a rebuilding year with pretty much every unit. Senior Sam Hunt has beaten out sophomore Joseph Webb at the QB position, at least for the time being; new coach Neil Callaway is apparently considering using both in many different places on the field, such as wide receiver. Speaking of, most of last year's top receivers are gone, but there is some starting experience here and there; the leading target should be converted QB Sylvester Mencer. The offensive line should have a transition year as well, as only two starters return to learn a new system. Every running back of note also leaves, though things may improve there with the addition of Alabama transfer Aaron Johns. On defense, things may stay somewhat stable; 3rd team all-CUSA LB Joe Henderson should be a bright spot, and two starters return, along with other starting experience, in the secondary. The defensive line was mostly gutted, however. This is a rebuilding year if there ever was one; at the very least, UAB should be able to get a win against Alcorn State, and may be able to beat Tulane at home.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
C-USA West:
1. Houston
The Cougars had the #7 offense in the nation last year, and while it may not repeat that rank, it should still be in the upper handful of the country. NFL-caliber QB Kevin Kolb departs after four years as a starter, and while the new starter (either sophomore Blake Joseph or redshirt frosh Case Keenum) may not match Kolb's superlative 2006 stat line, the position should still be a strength. An offensive line that should once again be strong will lead the way for senior RB Anthony Alridge, who, while not the starter last year, averaged an insane 10.1 yards on his 95 carries. A decent defense last year should at least hold steady. Lots of experience returns in the front seven, and things should be helped by LB transfers Stephen James (Oklahoma State) and James Francis (Baylor). And while only two of last year's starters return in the secondary, the team gets back SS Rocky Schwartz, who was one of the defense's best players in 2005. Even with Kolb's graduation, the offense still puts Houston in the C-USA's elite. They should easily be able to get to bowl-eligibility in conference play, but wins at Oregon or Alabama are pretty much out of the question, having to break in a new QB.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-10 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Tulsa
Even with the addition of last year's Arkansas OC, Gus Malzahn, Tulsa may be a more defense-oriented team this season, returning 6 starters on that side of the ball versus the offense's 4. That's not to say the offense will completely fall apart after last year's top-20 finish; QB Paul Smith and RB Courtney Tennial are seniors among the best at their position in the conference. Still, the receiving corps are fairly bare, and the offensive line is an even bigger concern, with only one starter returning and having to learn Malzahn's system. Last year's defense, also a top-20 unit, also faces some regression, but probably less so than the offense. The probably have to do more with who they lose rather than who's there; talented players, often with experience, are taking over the open positions, but the players leaving were some of Tulsa's best, such as LB Nick Bunting and FS Bobby Blackshire. Still, the defense should remain above-average, and all-CUSA MLB Nelson Coleman returning is a plus. The transition to Malzahn's offense is the main concern here, but again, the offense has enough talent to keep things humming along fairly well. It's a transition year, but Tulsa should be able to make a bowl once again.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. UTEP
A very good team with two major question marks, in QB and the defensive line. 8 starters return from an above-average offense last year, including the entire starting offensive line, which should result in a much-improved year from senior RB Marcus Thomas. And while the receiving corps loses its top two starters, including NFL-caliber Johnnie Lee Higgins, the position may actually be improved, due to the addition of Fred Rouse, a very highly talented transfer from Florida State. That leaves the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Trevor Vittatoe and part-time WR/Florida State transfer Lorne Sam will split snaps. While Vittatoe may be worthwhile, I'm pretty skeptical of this idea. Although, again, he also had duties at WR and RB, Sam only went 1/6 for a TD and an INT last year; while he should obviously improve on that, I'm not sure rotating QBs is a better idea than just letting Vittatoe take his lumps and develop. At the very least, the defense should be much improved. Again, the defensive line is the main concern, as almost nobody returns and the unit is heavy on JuCo transfers. Still, the linebacking corps returns two starters and brings in Arizona State transfer Adam Vincent, while the secondary should improve with the benefit of what's probably the CUSA top duo of safeties: all-CUSA FS Quintin Demps and all-CUSA frosh team SS Braxton Amy. The QB situation probably limits the Miners' upside for the season, but unless the position becomes a complete disaster, there's enough here to make it to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. SMU
QB Justin Willis returns after an insanely great freshman campaign, and while he may not repeat those numbers, he should lead an offense. The offensive line returns four starters and their entire 2nd string, which should help what was a horribly disappointing rushing attack; is starting RB DeMyron Martin remains healthy, he should more than double last year's 369 yards. Still, SMU scored about a touchdown more than their yardage suggests, so while the level of play should definitely improve, their scoring may take a small step back. On defense, SMU has one of the best linebacking corps in the conference, returning three senior starters. Though the defensive line and secondary lose three and two starters, respectively, there's enough experience (moreso in the latter) that things should remain close to last year's levels. There's a lot of parity in Conference USA, and SMU draws winnable games with UTEP, Tulane, Rice, and Central Florida at home. If the Mustangs can sweep those, two winnable OOC games means this could be the season SMU finally returns to a bowl. However, there's little room for error.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
5. Rice
Rice had a complete "what the fuck?" season last year, as one of the most hapless programs in recent history changed coaches, ditched the wishbone for a spread offense, which normally takes 3 or so years to work if it even does, and promptly went from 1-10 to 7-5. Still, this projected out to about a 3-9 team last year, and they're now on their third system in three years under new head coach David Bailiff. While QB Chase Clement isn't an elite QB, he's more than capable of allowing WR Jarett Dillard to put up huge numbers. Dillard broke out in a huge way last year, catching 21 TDs en route to earning 2nd team all-American honors. That may be the only reason for optimism on offense though, as while the offensive line is experienced, they change systems AGAIN, and the running stats should be hurt by the graduation of Quinton Smith. The defense was pretty horrible last year, and while they should be improved, that probably means just to "bad." All three starting linebackers return, as do both starting corners, but the defensive line is a huge question mark after DE George Chukwu. Clement-to-Dillard should continue to be fun to watch, but the Owls fall back to earth this year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
6. Tulane
Tulane was bad on defense and average but unlucky on offense last year, and with only 5 starters returning on the latter, they probably won't be able to benefit from regression to the mean. RB Matt Forte should be the star of the show, running behind a decent offensive line, as the passing game should take a hit with the graduation of QB Lester Ricard. Things look better on the defensive side of the ball; six of the starting front seven return, and both starting safeties come back alongside some corners with experience. With most of Tulane's winnable games on the road, the schedule pays them no favors; this is an obvious rebuilding year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE MWC
THE CONSENSUS:
1. TCU (#20 overall - AT: #25, LN: #15, SN: #20, SS: #23, ST: #25)
2. Brigham Young (#36 overall - AT: #36, LN: #44, SN: #25, SS: --, ST: #36)
3. Utah (#47 overall - AT: #47, LN: #45, SN: #59, SS: --, ST: #31)
4. New Mexico (#58 overall - AT: #63, LN: #72, SN: #49, SS: --, ST: #61)
5. Wyoming (#76 overall - AT: #76, LN: #69, SN: #72, SS: --, ST: #82)
6. Colorado State (#80 overall - AT: #79, LN: #83, SN: #82, SS: --, ST: #77)
7. Air Force (#96 overall - AT: #87, LN: #93, SN: #104, SS: --, ST: #89)
8. San Diego State (#98 overall - AT: #91, LN: #99, SN: #97, SS: --, ST: #94)
9. UNLV (#103 overall - AT: #102, LN: #102, SN: #114, SS: --, ST: #81)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. TCU
TCU was a top-20 team on both sides of the ball, and while the offense may take a step back, the defense should carry them easily. In a minor surprise, redshirt freshman Andy Dalton beat out last year's backup Marcus Jackson for the starting QB slot. While he's talented, his performance will be the major question mark for the Horned Frogs, especially since the talent at WR takes a step down. Still, he'll have one of the best running backs in the conference to help him out in Aaron Brown, who had 5.2 yards per carry last season, and the offensive line should be solid. 9 starters return from last year's #4 defense, led by what's probably the best duo of DEs in the nation in seniors Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. Both earned all-MWC honors in both 2005 and 2006. TCU's offense may be shaky, but they can afford to be with what should one again be one of the nation's top defenses. They're not an invincible team in the conference, but they're easily the favorites, and should easily reach double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Brigham Young
Arizona State transfer Max Hall will take over at QB for what should be another high-powered passing attack. The Cougars return two starters at WR from last year, and get back sophomore Austin Collie, who was MWC freshman of the year in 2004 before leaving on a Mormon mission. He'll also be protected by one of the top offensive lines in the nation. The running game may take a step back, though, as star RB Curtis Brown departs. The defense, while returning seven starters, should regress performance-wise, as they allowed about a touchdown less than their yardage dictated in 2006. Still, their level of play should improve, as both the secondary and defensive line return three starters, and the LB corps has some experienced depth. It should be another good year for BYU, mostly on the backs of that offense. Getting both TCU and Utah at home means that the Cougars should once again have double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. Utah
A very good offense last year should be even better, with essentially ten starters returning. QB Brian Johnson, 2005's starter, is probably the best quarterback in the conference, even after redshirting last year due to injury. And if he's rusty, he should be helped out by a very experienced receiving corps. The running game should be much improved after a medicore year, as the Utes bring in high-talent JuCo transfer Matt Asiata to bolster an already talented stable of backs. Things should also be helped by one of the top o-lines in the conference. The defense should remain solid, but may have some problems in the secondary; while there's the experience to get by in the front seven, the loss of 2-time MWC defensive player of the year Eric Weddle, along with two other starting defensive backs, may leave the team vulnerable to the pass. Utah should be improved, but may wind up around last year's 7 or 8 wins again; they have tough OOC games against Oregon State, UCLA and Louisville, and have to play BYU and TCU on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
4. New Mexico
The Lobos return 18 starters, which means they should be much improved on both sides of the ball. Sophomore QB Donovan Porterie was decent in limited action last year, and he'll be helped by all-MWC RB Rodney Ferguson and all-MWC WR Travis Brown. The offensive line should remain steady, returning three starters. The defense should see some serious gains, as everyone's back except LB Quincy Black. And all the returning starters are upperclassmen, so this should be one of the more improved defenses in the country. There's a lot of parity in the conference, which leads to a pretty wide range of possibilities, but enough games are winnable where the improvements should lead UNM to an above-.500 season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-10 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Colorado State
CSU's in much the same boat as New Mexico, returning 18 starters, and looking to be much improved on both sides of the ball. The offense gets a huge boost with the return from injury of senior RB Kyle Bell, who was one the conference's top backs in 2005. The passing game should also be much improved, as senior QB Caleb Hanie returns after a mediocre year in which he struggled with injuries. Injuries last year have also led to an offensive line that returns more experience than there's been in years. The linebacking corps should be the weakness of the defense, since the Rams return starters everywhere else, but the defense is packed with upperclassman depth. This, again, should be a much-improved team, but bowl-eligibility isn't a complete lock. Colorado, California, and Houston is a tough opening slate (although CSU may be able to exploit Colorado's inexperience), and the swing game against New Mexico is on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Wyoming
Wyoming could've easily been 10-2, not 6-6 last year; the Cowboys has a stretch of four games (Virginia, Boise State, Air Force, Syracuse) where they lost by a touchdown or less. This was mostly due to a top-10 (yes, top-10) defense that was very unlucky with scoring. Unfortunately, only five starters return on that defense. The linebacking corps should be one of the conference's best, as all three starters return, and the secondary has enough returning talent to remain above-average, but the defensive line was absolutely gutted by graduation. The offensive line isn't much better off, returning only two starters, which are also the unit's only two upperclassmen. Things should still be more productive on offense, though, despite the line troubles; QB Karsten Sween should improve over a promising freshman year, and the Cowboys have a very talented 1-2 rushing attack in RBs Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore. Wyoming could still pull of bowl-eligibility, but it all depends on the play at the lines. If both lines come together fairly quickly, Wyoming could be the conference's surprise team; however, that's a big if.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
7. UNLV
UNLV played around their 2-10 record last year, but leaps should be made this season. QB Rocky Hinds disappointed in his first year after transferring from USC; however, he played the entire year with a torn ACL, so assuming he's at full health, he should be one of the most improved QBs in the nation. He'll be helped by sophomore WR Ryan Wolfe, who was a revelation last year, earning all-MWC and freshman All-American honors. The offensive line will be a test of system vs. talent, as only two starters return, but this is the third year of coach Mike Sanford's system. The defense should be much-improved. Only four of the front seven return, but the Rebels should be bolstered by talented transfers DT Thor Pili (Oregon via JuCo) and LB Jimmy Miller (Mississippi State). Only two starts return in the secondary, but stepping in at free safety will be senior Tony Cade, who was an elite recruit that originally signed with Oklahoma. With the improvements on defense, the path of UNLV's season essentially comes down to the improvement of both the line and Hinds. Either way, the Rebels should improve upon last year's 2-10 record, but if Hinds plays well, they could make a surprise run for bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
8. San Diego State
SDSU was about as good (or bad) as their 3-9 record last year; at least the offense should improve. The offensive line should be much better, returning four starters, and that should help senior QB Kevin O'Connell improve over a mediocre junior campaign. Every running back returns from a talented, but disappointing, corps, so they should also be much-improved. The defense? Ehhhhh. Four starters return there, all along the front seven. The secondary may not be that bad for returning no starters, as there's some experience including Hawaii transfer Ray Bass, but things are still shaky. SDSU may improve on the whole, and while this is a talented enough team to pull off a few upsets, this is a rebuilding year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-5 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Air Force
A hard team to get a hold of, mostly since new coach Troy Calhoun will be phasing out the wishbone for a more pass-based attack. This has normally resulted in disaster for the first few years, with the one exception being Rice last year. It's a shame too, since the Falcons return seniors at 9 positions on offense, including four-year starting QB Shaun Carney. The defense should at least improve slightly with 6 starters returning, as well as 2005 starting CB Carson Bird; the losses are spread out among the units so no one level of the defense is clearly hurt. If the offense takes, Air Force has five winnable home games and could easily get a road win for bowl eligibility. If it doesn't...well, look at what happened to Army.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-6 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
1. TCU (#20 overall - AT: #25, LN: #15, SN: #20, SS: #23, ST: #25)
2. Brigham Young (#36 overall - AT: #36, LN: #44, SN: #25, SS: --, ST: #36)
3. Utah (#47 overall - AT: #47, LN: #45, SN: #59, SS: --, ST: #31)
4. New Mexico (#58 overall - AT: #63, LN: #72, SN: #49, SS: --, ST: #61)
5. Wyoming (#76 overall - AT: #76, LN: #69, SN: #72, SS: --, ST: #82)
6. Colorado State (#80 overall - AT: #79, LN: #83, SN: #82, SS: --, ST: #77)
7. Air Force (#96 overall - AT: #87, LN: #93, SN: #104, SS: --, ST: #89)
8. San Diego State (#98 overall - AT: #91, LN: #99, SN: #97, SS: --, ST: #94)
9. UNLV (#103 overall - AT: #102, LN: #102, SN: #114, SS: --, ST: #81)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. TCU
TCU was a top-20 team on both sides of the ball, and while the offense may take a step back, the defense should carry them easily. In a minor surprise, redshirt freshman Andy Dalton beat out last year's backup Marcus Jackson for the starting QB slot. While he's talented, his performance will be the major question mark for the Horned Frogs, especially since the talent at WR takes a step down. Still, he'll have one of the best running backs in the conference to help him out in Aaron Brown, who had 5.2 yards per carry last season, and the offensive line should be solid. 9 starters return from last year's #4 defense, led by what's probably the best duo of DEs in the nation in seniors Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. Both earned all-MWC honors in both 2005 and 2006. TCU's offense may be shaky, but they can afford to be with what should one again be one of the nation's top defenses. They're not an invincible team in the conference, but they're easily the favorites, and should easily reach double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Brigham Young
Arizona State transfer Max Hall will take over at QB for what should be another high-powered passing attack. The Cougars return two starters at WR from last year, and get back sophomore Austin Collie, who was MWC freshman of the year in 2004 before leaving on a Mormon mission. He'll also be protected by one of the top offensive lines in the nation. The running game may take a step back, though, as star RB Curtis Brown departs. The defense, while returning seven starters, should regress performance-wise, as they allowed about a touchdown less than their yardage dictated in 2006. Still, their level of play should improve, as both the secondary and defensive line return three starters, and the LB corps has some experienced depth. It should be another good year for BYU, mostly on the backs of that offense. Getting both TCU and Utah at home means that the Cougars should once again have double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. Utah
A very good offense last year should be even better, with essentially ten starters returning. QB Brian Johnson, 2005's starter, is probably the best quarterback in the conference, even after redshirting last year due to injury. And if he's rusty, he should be helped out by a very experienced receiving corps. The running game should be much improved after a medicore year, as the Utes bring in high-talent JuCo transfer Matt Asiata to bolster an already talented stable of backs. Things should also be helped by one of the top o-lines in the conference. The defense should remain solid, but may have some problems in the secondary; while there's the experience to get by in the front seven, the loss of 2-time MWC defensive player of the year Eric Weddle, along with two other starting defensive backs, may leave the team vulnerable to the pass. Utah should be improved, but may wind up around last year's 7 or 8 wins again; they have tough OOC games against Oregon State, UCLA and Louisville, and have to play BYU and TCU on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
4. New Mexico
The Lobos return 18 starters, which means they should be much improved on both sides of the ball. Sophomore QB Donovan Porterie was decent in limited action last year, and he'll be helped by all-MWC RB Rodney Ferguson and all-MWC WR Travis Brown. The offensive line should remain steady, returning three starters. The defense should see some serious gains, as everyone's back except LB Quincy Black. And all the returning starters are upperclassmen, so this should be one of the more improved defenses in the country. There's a lot of parity in the conference, which leads to a pretty wide range of possibilities, but enough games are winnable where the improvements should lead UNM to an above-.500 season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-10 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Colorado State
CSU's in much the same boat as New Mexico, returning 18 starters, and looking to be much improved on both sides of the ball. The offense gets a huge boost with the return from injury of senior RB Kyle Bell, who was one the conference's top backs in 2005. The passing game should also be much improved, as senior QB Caleb Hanie returns after a mediocre year in which he struggled with injuries. Injuries last year have also led to an offensive line that returns more experience than there's been in years. The linebacking corps should be the weakness of the defense, since the Rams return starters everywhere else, but the defense is packed with upperclassman depth. This, again, should be a much-improved team, but bowl-eligibility isn't a complete lock. Colorado, California, and Houston is a tough opening slate (although CSU may be able to exploit Colorado's inexperience), and the swing game against New Mexico is on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Wyoming
Wyoming could've easily been 10-2, not 6-6 last year; the Cowboys has a stretch of four games (Virginia, Boise State, Air Force, Syracuse) where they lost by a touchdown or less. This was mostly due to a top-10 (yes, top-10) defense that was very unlucky with scoring. Unfortunately, only five starters return on that defense. The linebacking corps should be one of the conference's best, as all three starters return, and the secondary has enough returning talent to remain above-average, but the defensive line was absolutely gutted by graduation. The offensive line isn't much better off, returning only two starters, which are also the unit's only two upperclassmen. Things should still be more productive on offense, though, despite the line troubles; QB Karsten Sween should improve over a promising freshman year, and the Cowboys have a very talented 1-2 rushing attack in RBs Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore. Wyoming could still pull of bowl-eligibility, but it all depends on the play at the lines. If both lines come together fairly quickly, Wyoming could be the conference's surprise team; however, that's a big if.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
7. UNLV
UNLV played around their 2-10 record last year, but leaps should be made this season. QB Rocky Hinds disappointed in his first year after transferring from USC; however, he played the entire year with a torn ACL, so assuming he's at full health, he should be one of the most improved QBs in the nation. He'll be helped by sophomore WR Ryan Wolfe, who was a revelation last year, earning all-MWC and freshman All-American honors. The offensive line will be a test of system vs. talent, as only two starters return, but this is the third year of coach Mike Sanford's system. The defense should be much-improved. Only four of the front seven return, but the Rebels should be bolstered by talented transfers DT Thor Pili (Oregon via JuCo) and LB Jimmy Miller (Mississippi State). Only two starts return in the secondary, but stepping in at free safety will be senior Tony Cade, who was an elite recruit that originally signed with Oklahoma. With the improvements on defense, the path of UNLV's season essentially comes down to the improvement of both the line and Hinds. Either way, the Rebels should improve upon last year's 2-10 record, but if Hinds plays well, they could make a surprise run for bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
8. San Diego State
SDSU was about as good (or bad) as their 3-9 record last year; at least the offense should improve. The offensive line should be much better, returning four starters, and that should help senior QB Kevin O'Connell improve over a mediocre junior campaign. Every running back returns from a talented, but disappointing, corps, so they should also be much-improved. The defense? Ehhhhh. Four starters return there, all along the front seven. The secondary may not be that bad for returning no starters, as there's some experience including Hawaii transfer Ray Bass, but things are still shaky. SDSU may improve on the whole, and while this is a talented enough team to pull off a few upsets, this is a rebuilding year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-5 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Air Force
A hard team to get a hold of, mostly since new coach Troy Calhoun will be phasing out the wishbone for a more pass-based attack. This has normally resulted in disaster for the first few years, with the one exception being Rice last year. It's a shame too, since the Falcons return seniors at 9 positions on offense, including four-year starting QB Shaun Carney. The defense should at least improve slightly with 6 starters returning, as well as 2005 starting CB Carson Bird; the losses are spread out among the units so no one level of the defense is clearly hurt. If the offense takes, Air Force has five winnable home games and could easily get a road win for bowl eligibility. If it doesn't...well, look at what happened to Army.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-6 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE WAC
Turns out that I may have just cut this a bit too close, so the mid-major previews are going to be more perfunctory in the write-ups. I'll still give the gist, though. Hopefully I'll knock these out by the end of Tuesday and be able to preview Thursday and Friday's games either that night or Wednesday; then my top 25, if it's not a top 119, should be up Wednesday or Thursday. HERE WE GO.
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Hawaii (#22 overall - AT: #19, LN: #19, SN: #32, SS: --, ST: #23)
2. Boise State (#34 overall - AT: #35, LN: #29, SN: #22, SS: #25, ST: #44)
3. San Jose State (#65t overall - AT: #72, LN: #63, SN: #73, SS: --, ST: #64)
4. Fresno State (#71 overall - AT: #89, LN: #61, SN: #65, SS: --, ST: #73)
5. Nevada (#78 overall - AT: #84, LN: #84, SN: #63, SS: --, ST: #76)
6. New Mexico State (#86t overall - AT: #103, LN: #95, SN: #76, SS: --, ST: #68)
7. Louisiana Tech (#112t overall - AT: #108, LN: #113, SN: #112, SS: --, ST: #111)
8. Idaho (#114 overall - AT: #113, LN: #110, SN: #115, SS: --, ST: #110)
9. Utah State (#117 overall - AT: #117, LN: #117, SN: #117, SS: --, ST: #113)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Hawaii
And it's close. The defense is the question mark by reasons other than default, as 8 starters return from a below average unit, and after great strides were made under DC Jerry Glanville, he's left to become head coach at Portland State. The offense should continue to put up insane numbers, as they outgained #2 Louisville by almost 75 yards per game last year. Colt Brennan may not top last year's numbers, but for posterity and general holy shitness, here are last year's numbers: 5549 yards, 72.6% completion, 58/12 TD/INT ratio. The obvious big test is Boise on 11/22, which is in Honolulu, and there's a trap game the Friday before at Nevada. And hopefully their 10/27 home game will be on TV, and it should be an insane shootout against New Mexico State.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Boise State
Boise was as well-rounded as any team in the nation last year, and even returning only 11 starters, I'm not counting the Broncos out. The BSU offense is always a well-oiled machine, and that should continue. Four starters return on the line, as does RB Ian Johnson and his NCAA-leading 25 rushing TDs. The defense's strength should be the secondary, returning three starters. That's as nice as place as there can be to return starters when you'll be facing Hawaii and NMSU. Boise'll take a step back, but it'll be taking a step back from the best team in school history. With Southern Miss at home the only real out of conference test, their season-ending game at Hawaii could be between two undefeated teams.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. New Mexico State
Hawaii-lite. With the amount of yardage NMSU piled up (#3 in the nation), they easily could've scored 38 or so per game instead of 31. And watch out, they return everyone on offense but their starting left guard. QB Chase Holbrook, in one season, set an NCAA record for passing yards by a sophomore, and is also already more than halfway to the all-time NMSU career passing record. WR Chris Williams led the NCAA in receiving last year, and might do it again. The defense returns 7 starters and should continue to improve under DC Woody Widenhofer, who helped put together the "Steel Curtain" defense. Yes, the one way back when. NMSU probably won't win their OOC game at Auburn, and having both Hawaii and Boise on the road probably prevents them from a WAC title, but the Aggies should easily be bowl eligible. Unless Holbrook goes down, as everyone else at QB is a freshman, then they're screwed.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
4. San Jose State
A close one between SJSU and Fresno, the Spartans have more experience, while Fresno has more talent. The offense was decent last year, and should remain at that level. Senior QB Adam Tafralis returns after a solid year, but the WR corps is very unproven after being gutted by graduation. Star RB Yonus Davis should also have a good year behind an improved offensive line. The defense should improve over last year due to 8 returning starters, including LB Matt Castelo, who led the NCAA in tackles, and CB Dwight Lowery, who led the nation in interceptions. While tough OOC games against Arizona State and Kansas State will probably prevent SJSU from matching last year's 9 wins, this should be another positive year with easy bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Fresno State
Well, last year was a disaster; while I've always felt Fresno was overrated, especially after the 2005 USC game, I didn't see THAT coming. It seems like a situation where the level of play almost has to improve given the talent. Returning most of the offensive line will help, although QB Tom Brandstater's bad line from last year didn't exactly inspire confidence. The RB unit should be solid, again due to the talent, but departed starter Dwayne Wright was last year's bright spot and should be tough to match. The defense was horribly disappointing last year, especially against the pass, and while only four starters return, some regression to the mean in terms of talent should level things out. Fresno should be much improved, but may still have a disappointing year - they have their usual hellish OOC schedule (Oregon, Kansas State, Texas A&M), and teams like NMSU and SJSU are no longer the gimmes they were in '05 and '04.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Nevada
Nevada should be a decent team on both sides of the ball, but nothing too great. New QB Nick Graziano should be solid, but I doubt he'll match departed senior Jeff Rowe's numbers. Luckily for him, all of the returning starters on offense are receivers or on the line. The defense was a bit on the lucky side last year, but should continue to improve with 7 returning starters, led by all-WAC LB Ezra Butler. This is a rebuilding year for Wolf Pack, but they look like they'll manage bowl eligibility for a third straight year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
7. Idaho
Despite yet another coaching change, Idaho looks like the best of the bunch among three teams that were horrible last year. The bright spot on offense is a very deep RB corps, returning Brian Flowers, Jayson Bird and Rolly Lumbala, all of whom have starting talent and will be running behind a solid offensive line. QB is a question mark, as redshirt freshman Nathan Enderle will be backed up by senior Brian Nooy, who's been pretty bad in limited action. Still, things can't be much worse than the departed Steve Wichman's 2006 numbers. The defense should be improved - new coach Robb Akey is a defensive mind, and all-WAC CB Stanley Franks is one of seven returning starters. Still, being improved from a very bad season last year is damning with faint praise. Idaho gets both Utah State and Louisiana Tech at home, so they're in the driver's seat to the race for seventh place. That's pretty much the only reason for optimism this season, unless the Vandals manage to hold USC under 70.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
8. Utah State
The Aggies return 8 starters on offense and everyone on defense, though who knows what that means when your team was one of the worst in the nation last year. You'd almost think the offense would have to get better, especially with the addition of ex-North Texas coach Darrell Dickey as coordinator, but I'm not so sure; QB Leon Jackson was dismal in split duty, and the leading returning rusher is senior Aaron Lesue, who in four starts managed an amazing 51 yards. Total. The defense has enough experience to not be embarrassing, but with that offense, it may not mean much. USU should win their home game against Louisiana Tech. Past that, things look much bleaker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
9. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech confronts the same conundrum as Utah State: is returning 10 of 11 starters on defense a good thing when that defense was the worst in the nation by almost 30 yards per game? Probably not, although the Bulldogs D may jump ahead of USU's. The offense was unlucky last year, but with the coaching change, that may not result in any real improvement this season. Things should at least remain steady though; there's depth at RB and on the offensive line, and senior Zac Champion returns after a season that was...better than some horrible QBs were. Louisiana Tech could surprise if the defense plays well, but "surprise" pretty much just means beating both Utah State and Idaho on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Hawaii (#22 overall - AT: #19, LN: #19, SN: #32, SS: --, ST: #23)
2. Boise State (#34 overall - AT: #35, LN: #29, SN: #22, SS: #25, ST: #44)
3. San Jose State (#65t overall - AT: #72, LN: #63, SN: #73, SS: --, ST: #64)
4. Fresno State (#71 overall - AT: #89, LN: #61, SN: #65, SS: --, ST: #73)
5. Nevada (#78 overall - AT: #84, LN: #84, SN: #63, SS: --, ST: #76)
6. New Mexico State (#86t overall - AT: #103, LN: #95, SN: #76, SS: --, ST: #68)
7. Louisiana Tech (#112t overall - AT: #108, LN: #113, SN: #112, SS: --, ST: #111)
8. Idaho (#114 overall - AT: #113, LN: #110, SN: #115, SS: --, ST: #110)
9. Utah State (#117 overall - AT: #117, LN: #117, SN: #117, SS: --, ST: #113)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Hawaii
And it's close. The defense is the question mark by reasons other than default, as 8 starters return from a below average unit, and after great strides were made under DC Jerry Glanville, he's left to become head coach at Portland State. The offense should continue to put up insane numbers, as they outgained #2 Louisville by almost 75 yards per game last year. Colt Brennan may not top last year's numbers, but for posterity and general holy shitness, here are last year's numbers: 5549 yards, 72.6% completion, 58/12 TD/INT ratio. The obvious big test is Boise on 11/22, which is in Honolulu, and there's a trap game the Friday before at Nevada. And hopefully their 10/27 home game will be on TV, and it should be an insane shootout against New Mexico State.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Boise State
Boise was as well-rounded as any team in the nation last year, and even returning only 11 starters, I'm not counting the Broncos out. The BSU offense is always a well-oiled machine, and that should continue. Four starters return on the line, as does RB Ian Johnson and his NCAA-leading 25 rushing TDs. The defense's strength should be the secondary, returning three starters. That's as nice as place as there can be to return starters when you'll be facing Hawaii and NMSU. Boise'll take a step back, but it'll be taking a step back from the best team in school history. With Southern Miss at home the only real out of conference test, their season-ending game at Hawaii could be between two undefeated teams.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. New Mexico State
Hawaii-lite. With the amount of yardage NMSU piled up (#3 in the nation), they easily could've scored 38 or so per game instead of 31. And watch out, they return everyone on offense but their starting left guard. QB Chase Holbrook, in one season, set an NCAA record for passing yards by a sophomore, and is also already more than halfway to the all-time NMSU career passing record. WR Chris Williams led the NCAA in receiving last year, and might do it again. The defense returns 7 starters and should continue to improve under DC Woody Widenhofer, who helped put together the "Steel Curtain" defense. Yes, the one way back when. NMSU probably won't win their OOC game at Auburn, and having both Hawaii and Boise on the road probably prevents them from a WAC title, but the Aggies should easily be bowl eligible. Unless Holbrook goes down, as everyone else at QB is a freshman, then they're screwed.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
4. San Jose State
A close one between SJSU and Fresno, the Spartans have more experience, while Fresno has more talent. The offense was decent last year, and should remain at that level. Senior QB Adam Tafralis returns after a solid year, but the WR corps is very unproven after being gutted by graduation. Star RB Yonus Davis should also have a good year behind an improved offensive line. The defense should improve over last year due to 8 returning starters, including LB Matt Castelo, who led the NCAA in tackles, and CB Dwight Lowery, who led the nation in interceptions. While tough OOC games against Arizona State and Kansas State will probably prevent SJSU from matching last year's 9 wins, this should be another positive year with easy bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Fresno State
Well, last year was a disaster; while I've always felt Fresno was overrated, especially after the 2005 USC game, I didn't see THAT coming. It seems like a situation where the level of play almost has to improve given the talent. Returning most of the offensive line will help, although QB Tom Brandstater's bad line from last year didn't exactly inspire confidence. The RB unit should be solid, again due to the talent, but departed starter Dwayne Wright was last year's bright spot and should be tough to match. The defense was horribly disappointing last year, especially against the pass, and while only four starters return, some regression to the mean in terms of talent should level things out. Fresno should be much improved, but may still have a disappointing year - they have their usual hellish OOC schedule (Oregon, Kansas State, Texas A&M), and teams like NMSU and SJSU are no longer the gimmes they were in '05 and '04.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Nevada
Nevada should be a decent team on both sides of the ball, but nothing too great. New QB Nick Graziano should be solid, but I doubt he'll match departed senior Jeff Rowe's numbers. Luckily for him, all of the returning starters on offense are receivers or on the line. The defense was a bit on the lucky side last year, but should continue to improve with 7 returning starters, led by all-WAC LB Ezra Butler. This is a rebuilding year for Wolf Pack, but they look like they'll manage bowl eligibility for a third straight year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
7. Idaho
Despite yet another coaching change, Idaho looks like the best of the bunch among three teams that were horrible last year. The bright spot on offense is a very deep RB corps, returning Brian Flowers, Jayson Bird and Rolly Lumbala, all of whom have starting talent and will be running behind a solid offensive line. QB is a question mark, as redshirt freshman Nathan Enderle will be backed up by senior Brian Nooy, who's been pretty bad in limited action. Still, things can't be much worse than the departed Steve Wichman's 2006 numbers. The defense should be improved - new coach Robb Akey is a defensive mind, and all-WAC CB Stanley Franks is one of seven returning starters. Still, being improved from a very bad season last year is damning with faint praise. Idaho gets both Utah State and Louisiana Tech at home, so they're in the driver's seat to the race for seventh place. That's pretty much the only reason for optimism this season, unless the Vandals manage to hold USC under 70.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
8. Utah State
The Aggies return 8 starters on offense and everyone on defense, though who knows what that means when your team was one of the worst in the nation last year. You'd almost think the offense would have to get better, especially with the addition of ex-North Texas coach Darrell Dickey as coordinator, but I'm not so sure; QB Leon Jackson was dismal in split duty, and the leading returning rusher is senior Aaron Lesue, who in four starts managed an amazing 51 yards. Total. The defense has enough experience to not be embarrassing, but with that offense, it may not mean much. USU should win their home game against Louisiana Tech. Past that, things look much bleaker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
9. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech confronts the same conundrum as Utah State: is returning 10 of 11 starters on defense a good thing when that defense was the worst in the nation by almost 30 yards per game? Probably not, although the Bulldogs D may jump ahead of USU's. The offense was unlucky last year, but with the coaching change, that may not result in any real improvement this season. Things should at least remain steady though; there's depth at RB and on the offensive line, and senior Zac Champion returns after a season that was...better than some horrible QBs were. Louisiana Tech could surprise if the defense plays well, but "surprise" pretty much just means beating both Utah State and Idaho on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Monday, August 27, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE PAC 10
THE CONSENSUS:
1. USC (#1 overall - AT: #1, LN: #1, SN: #1, SS: #1, ST: #1)
2. California (#12t overall - AT: #11, LN: #12, SN: #12, SS: #11, ST: #22)
3. UCLA (#15 overall - AT: #15, LN: #22, SN: #10, SS: #17, ST: #20)
4. Oregon State (#26 overall - AT: #22, LN: #32, SN: #29, SS: #24, ST: #28)
5. Arizona State (#37 overall - AT: #44, LN: #30, SN: #41, SS: --, ST: #27)
6. Oregon (#40 overall - AT: #40, LN: #47, SN: #52, SS: --, ST: #16)
7. Arizona (#46 overall - AT: #37, LN: #46, SN: #56, SS: --, ST: #42)
8. Washington State (#62 overall - AT: #58, LN: #71, SN: #79, SS: --, ST: #55)
9. Washington (#65t overall - AT: #64, LN: #66, SN: #85, SS: --, ST: #57)
10. Stanford (#97 overall - AT: #100, LN: #79, SN: #108, SS: --, ST: #90)
OVERRATED: California. UCLA has the favorable schedule to at least meet their high expectations - the Bears benefitted from a very lucky defense last year, one that returns only five starters.
UNDERRATED: Oregon. Their late-season slide was mostly bad luck, and they return a lot from a team that could've had double-digit wins last year.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. USC
Well, duh. There's almost no point in analyzing returning starters with USC since the talent level is so high, but it's still a very scary thought that the Trojans return 10 starters from what was already a very good defense. USC didn't dominate statistically last year, but it was still, obviously, a very good year, and again, the Trojans look to only be better, especially on D. And, hey, senior QB John David Booty is the early Heisman favorite, and they go about 10 deep at running back. I'd point out individual star players, but pretty much everyone returning earned some sort of honor, so I'll just say that Booty, DT Sedrick Ellis, and LBs Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga were all-Pac 10 last year, and that 2005 All-American DE Lawrence Jackson should recover from a disappointing junior campaign. USC is far from an unbeatable team; the one huge question mark is the young WR corps, and while there's much worse places to have experience, if nobody comes through there, that could be a problem. This is one of those years where USC gets a bunch of tricky opponents on the road, as they travel to Oregon, California, Arizona State, and out of conference to Nebraska and Notre Dame, plus they have the UCLA rivalry game at home. USC's the first- or second-most talented team in the country, but there's still a chance they lose a game somewhere along the way.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 7-9 conference wins
2. Oregon
Oregon's implosion down the stretch was more due to bad luck than any sudden lack in effectiveness, as pretty much every game down the stretch was winnable. The defensive statistics for the season alone reflect this, as the Ducks' opponents scored about a touchdown more than you'd expect based on the yardage. But either way, the stars of the show will be the offense, where New Hampshire's Chip Kelly takes over for the departed Gary Crowton. He'll oversee a talented backfield, led by stud junior RB Jonathan Stewart; while Stewart's been good, he has a huge amount of room for improvement, as he may be the most talented back in the conference. QB Dennis Dixon should have a much more productive senior campaign - while his 2143 yards and 61.2% completion percentage were good last year, his 12/14 TD/INT ratio, not so much. He'll be throwing to a talented WR corps, led by junior Jaison Williams. The offensive line should be around last year's level -- three starters return, and the Ducks bring in a top JuCo tackle in Fenuki Tupou. On defense, the secondary should be one of the best in the country; four of five starters return, including star safety Patrick Chung and last year's Pac 10 co-Freshman of the Year, CB Jairus Byrd. The front six pretty much consists of three starters and JuCo talent; while there may be a transition there, the defense should improve as a whole due to the secondary's strength and regression to the mean. While Oregon has road games at Michigan and UCLA, they have the luck of getting USC, Arizona State, and California at home. The Ducks have a good shot at winning three of those, and should come close to last year's projected 9 or 10 wins. There's some reason for concern, especially since new OC Chip Kelly is untested at a I-A level, but the Pac 10 is wide open enough where Oregon should have a great year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
3. Arizona State
The Sun Devils return a very good offense that should be much improved, and that starts with junior QB Rudy Carpenter. Carpenter led the country in passing efficiency as a freshman, but had a good, if disappointing second season (2523, 55.4%, 23/14). He later admitted to a fractured hand, so his statistics should be much improved. He'll also be throwing behind a much-improved O-line, which returns all five starters, three of which earned 2nd team or honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors. And the rest of the skill positions are also in good hands, as 2nd team all-Pac 10 RB Ryan Torain heads up a stacked depth chart, and senior do-everything WR Rudy Burgess is also back for another year. The defense is more of a mixed bag. Only three starters return in the front seven, though there are some sophomores with starting experience in the linebacker corps. The secondary also has to replace two starters, but some experienced upperclassmen should be plugged right in alongside senior CB Justin Tyron and FS Josh Barrett, both of which were honorable mention all-Pac 10. The Arizona State defense was very unlucky in terms of yardage vs. scoring allowed; even if the defense's level of play falters due to returning only 5 starters, the end results should still be improved. That, combined with a pretty high-powered offense that should improve with the health of Carpenter, makes ASU, much like Oregon, a very improved team. The Sun Devils also get a favorable schedule, as their four toughest games aren't until the last five; Arizona State has an excellent chance at starting 7-1 or 8-0. This should be a breakout year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
4. UCLA
UCLA returns almost everyone on both sides of the ball, which is the obvious reason for such preseason optimism. Along the offensive line, everyone but center Robert Chai returns, including top guard Shannon Tevaga. The line should be much improved, and should thus lead to much better rushing numbers from senior Chris Markey, who ran for 1107 yards, but only 2 touchdowns. Junior QB Ben Olson should also have a much-improved year, if only due to health - he threw for 822 yards and a 5/5 ratio on 63.7% passing before going down with injury. He'll be throwing to a deep WR corps, led by returning senior starters Marcus Everett and Brandon Breazell, along with 2005's top receiver, Joe Cowan, who returns from injury. On defense, there's very little not to like. Six of the front seven return, and the Bruins have experienced depth. However, last year's vulnerable secondary may now be the strength, as UCLA returns four senior starters, led by 2nd team all-Pac 10 SS Chris Horton and honorable mention CB Trey Brown. UCLA, due to all the returning talent, should obviously be much improved, but remember, this was a .500-level team last year, USC win or not. The low starting point on offense from last year, despite the returnees, makes me put UCLA at #4. Still, the Bruins are the lucky team in the 2-5 glut that draws California, Arizona State, and Oregon all at home. While the talent level may not be up to the Ducks or the Sun Devils, UCLA may be the team that winds up in second place.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
5. California
Might as well start with the good news, that being the offense. Nate Longshore was the latest in a line of very good Jeff Tedford QBs, gaining honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors on 3021 yards and a 24/13 ratio on 60.2% passing. He'll be throwing to what might be the best receiving corps in the country, led by all-Pac 10 junior DeSean Jackson and two honorable mention all-Pac 10 seniors, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. Running back Justin Forsett also returns for his senior season; he's played well in backup duty for NFL first-rounder Marshawn Lynch, rushing for 626 and 4 last season. And hey, the offensive line should be above-average as well; while two starters are gone, there's enough experience and talent to do well, and two of the returning guys are all-Pac 10 center Alex Mack and 2nd team all-Pac 10 tackle Mike Gibson. The defense, however, provides less reasons for optimism. On the plus side, a secondary that hemorrhaged yardage last season should be very much improved, as three starters return. Still, the open spot at CB may be picked upon early, as there's much more talent than experience. The front seven may also be a bit shaky - while the linebacking corps has enough experienced depth to make up for two lost starters, the defensive line returns senior DT Matthew Malele and not much else. With time, things should come together, but with the Bears leading off against Tennessee, it'll be a trial by fire. Either way, while the secondary may be improved, the defense as a whole should see some serious regression, as the Bears were extremely lucky last year; Cal allowed 20.1 points per game, while other teams close to them in yardage allowed gave up anywhere from 23 to 32. With a questionable defense that should regress and getting UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon all on the road (along with the OOC game against Tennessee), Cal could see quite a regression from last year's record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
6. Oregon State
Oregon State was a thoroughly decent team on both sides of the ball and not much more last year, though the Beavers won pretty much all of their close games en route to a 10-4 record. On offense, things look to improve on the ground. All-Pac 10 running back Yvenson Bernard returns after a 1307 yard, 12 TD season, and he'll be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four of five starters. As for the passing game, ehhhh. Star WR Sammie Stroughter, who earned 2nd team all-Pac 10 honors last year, is taking an indefinite leave of absence, and while that's a major loss, the Beavers have another capable senior (Anthony Wheat-Brown) who can lessen the blow. The real concern may be at the quarterback position, where expected starter, sophomore Sean Canfield will split time with JuCo transfer Lyle Moevao. This...seems like a bad idea. The team used this to an extent last year with Canfield and departed senior Matt Moore, but teams often succeed DESPITE this kind of arrangement, not because of it, and it seems like a risky idea given Oregon State is coming off a season with a lot of luck. The defense should do very well, as OSU returns 8 starters. The linebacking corps should be the strength, as the Beavers return all three starters, all seniors, including two time all-Pac 10 2nd teamer Derrick Doggett. Really, the defensive is solid wherever starters don't return as well, since there's an upperclassman with experience at pretty much every position. The Beavers are solidly at a talent level behind the #2-5 teams here, and above the #7-9 glut. And since with only two exceptions (at Wazzou and UCLA at home), they play the teams I rank above them on the road, and the ones below them at home, 6th place is about where they should finish. If the Beavers stick with a QB who gets hot, they may be able to engineer an upset or two, but this should be a .500 year at worst.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
7. Arizona
The offense has been the problem for the Wildcats the last few years, and last year was no exception, as Arizona had less yards per game than all but four teams in the country. What this means for next year is anyone's guess, as the team brings in OC Sonny Dykes, who was co-coordinator for one of the best offenses in the nation at Texas Tech. He has talent to work with, as the Wildcats bring back 8 returning starters. QB Willie Tuitama had a disappointing and injury-plagued sophomore campaign, but still put up passable numbers (1335, 55.9%, 7/6); he should be much-improved if healthy, especially with the new offense. Helping his health should be a much-improved offensive line, which returns all 5 starters and is teeming with high-talent, if not always experienced, depth. Receivers is somewhat of a question mark, but should still be well off; upperclassmen Anthony Johnson and Michael Thomas are returning starters, but the rest of the depth chart is talented players who have almost no experience. The RB corps is also talented, and while senior Chris Jennings has some experience, the new offense utilizes running backs much more in a receiving role; how they'll fare is somewhat of a crapshoot. The defense's improvement is much easier to projected, as the Wildcats return 9 of 11 starters on that side of the ball. Senior DE Louis Holmes was 2nd team all-Pac 10 out of junior college last year, and should improve upon that providing he avoids suspension. Senior CB Antoine Cason was also all-Pac 10 last season, and is one of the best at his position in the nation. The Wildcats have a tough schedule, and while their defense should keep them in games, bowl eligibility should depend on how well the new offense takes. If things go well, they may be able to get an upset at Oregon State or Arizona State, or at home against UCLA. If not, there's very little room for error.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
8. Washington State
Wazzou was a somewhat underrated team last year, featuring an upper-tier offense that, had it scored as many points as yardage would dictate, would've led the Cougars to 7 or 8 wins. While there are some losses, the offense should remain above-average. Senior QB Alex Brink returns after a 2nd team all-Pac 10 year, where he threw for 2899 uyards and a 19/10 ratio on 60.9% passing. He'll be throwing from behind a passing line that should remain constant if not improved, as three starters return, and the open spots will be plugged by high-talent juniors. Brink will also return two of his top three targets in senior Michael Bumpus and junior Brandon Gibson; return man Charles Dillon will be the new #3. Sophomore Dwight Tardy will lead a running back corps that returns everyone of note, and should be much improved. The defense doesn't return nearly as much. The defensive line is where most of the experience is, as while all-Pac 10 DE Mkristo Bruce departs, the other three starters return. The LB corps is probably the weakest unit; starting MLB Greg Trent returns and junior Cory Evans has some experience, but there isn't much past that. Although sophomore Andy Mattingly is Don's son, so opposing O-lineman may become distracted and try to talk to him about that or something. The secondary suffers similar losses due to graduation, but returns free safety Husain Abdullah and brings in tons of JuCo talent, led by elite recruit Terry Mixon. Wazzou's offense should keep them in a lot of games, but without much returning on defense, it'll be difficult to make it back to .500 against a tough schedule. Having to play at Wisconsin out of conference is a killer, as having Stanford at home seems like the only guaranteed win in the Pac 10.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-4 conference wins
9. Washington
Washington was below-average on both sides of the ball overall, but still played most of their games close, and with some Maryland-like luck, could've had 7 or 8 wins. 5-7 was about their projected record though, especially after then-QB Isaiah Stanback was knocked out for the year. Redshirt freshman Jake Locker will be the new QB, and comes in amidst huge expectations. While he has the talent to do well, at the very least, he should be an improvement over now-backup Carl Bonnell's 2006 numbers (916, 43.9%, 7/11). He'll be helped out by a rushing attack that should be much improved; leading rusher Louis Rankin returns, and top recruit JR Hasty will debut after missing 2006 due to academics. The offensive line should at least be decent enough to protect Locker; three starters return, and while there's little starting experience past that, there's lots of talented 2nd-stringers. The defensive situation actually looks a lot like in-state rival Wazzou's; most of the depth returns along the defensive line, which will consist of three returning starters and part-time starting DT Jordan Reffett. Past that, there's an inexperienced linebacking corps and a secondary that returns starters, but needs incoming JuCo talent to play well. Washington should be a wholly decent team, but that schedule is hell; the Huskies play Boise State, Hawaii, and Ohio State out of conference, and the two easiest teams on the schedule, Syracuse and Stanford, are both road games. This seems like a lost year, and any good news will probably be regarding the maturation of Locker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
10. Stanford
On the plus side, 16 starters return, but who knows what that means for a team that was pretty bad on defense and absolutely abhorrent on offense. Senior QB TC Ostrander has limited starting experience, and he should improve on last year's poor overall numbers at the position (1945, 52.8%, 10/11). He'll be helped by a WR corps that returns everyone of note, led by seniors Mark Bradford and 6'7" Evan Moore. The running back corps also returns pretty much everyone, and there's way too much talent to have another season as horrible as last year's was, at least you'd think. And hey, that's much the same story for the offensive line, who returns three starters and two seniors to fill the open slots. On defense, the front seven should be the most improved unit. Every starter returns except for NFL draft pick LB Michael Okwo, and there's a ton of young talent to draw from if things don't go well. The secondary is more of a mixed bag - both starting cornerbacks return, but past that, ehhhhhh. New free safety Austin Yancy had experience starting last year, although it was at receiver. Stanford has enough talent where they can pull off some upsets if Harbaugh coaches them up, but having TCU and Notre Dame as out of conference games doesn't help matters. There's a decent chance the Cardinal improve over last year's one win, at least.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
1. USC (#1 overall - AT: #1, LN: #1, SN: #1, SS: #1, ST: #1)
2. California (#12t overall - AT: #11, LN: #12, SN: #12, SS: #11, ST: #22)
3. UCLA (#15 overall - AT: #15, LN: #22, SN: #10, SS: #17, ST: #20)
4. Oregon State (#26 overall - AT: #22, LN: #32, SN: #29, SS: #24, ST: #28)
5. Arizona State (#37 overall - AT: #44, LN: #30, SN: #41, SS: --, ST: #27)
6. Oregon (#40 overall - AT: #40, LN: #47, SN: #52, SS: --, ST: #16)
7. Arizona (#46 overall - AT: #37, LN: #46, SN: #56, SS: --, ST: #42)
8. Washington State (#62 overall - AT: #58, LN: #71, SN: #79, SS: --, ST: #55)
9. Washington (#65t overall - AT: #64, LN: #66, SN: #85, SS: --, ST: #57)
10. Stanford (#97 overall - AT: #100, LN: #79, SN: #108, SS: --, ST: #90)
OVERRATED: California. UCLA has the favorable schedule to at least meet their high expectations - the Bears benefitted from a very lucky defense last year, one that returns only five starters.
UNDERRATED: Oregon. Their late-season slide was mostly bad luck, and they return a lot from a team that could've had double-digit wins last year.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. USC
Well, duh. There's almost no point in analyzing returning starters with USC since the talent level is so high, but it's still a very scary thought that the Trojans return 10 starters from what was already a very good defense. USC didn't dominate statistically last year, but it was still, obviously, a very good year, and again, the Trojans look to only be better, especially on D. And, hey, senior QB John David Booty is the early Heisman favorite, and they go about 10 deep at running back. I'd point out individual star players, but pretty much everyone returning earned some sort of honor, so I'll just say that Booty, DT Sedrick Ellis, and LBs Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga were all-Pac 10 last year, and that 2005 All-American DE Lawrence Jackson should recover from a disappointing junior campaign. USC is far from an unbeatable team; the one huge question mark is the young WR corps, and while there's much worse places to have experience, if nobody comes through there, that could be a problem. This is one of those years where USC gets a bunch of tricky opponents on the road, as they travel to Oregon, California, Arizona State, and out of conference to Nebraska and Notre Dame, plus they have the UCLA rivalry game at home. USC's the first- or second-most talented team in the country, but there's still a chance they lose a game somewhere along the way.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 7-9 conference wins
2. Oregon
Oregon's implosion down the stretch was more due to bad luck than any sudden lack in effectiveness, as pretty much every game down the stretch was winnable. The defensive statistics for the season alone reflect this, as the Ducks' opponents scored about a touchdown more than you'd expect based on the yardage. But either way, the stars of the show will be the offense, where New Hampshire's Chip Kelly takes over for the departed Gary Crowton. He'll oversee a talented backfield, led by stud junior RB Jonathan Stewart; while Stewart's been good, he has a huge amount of room for improvement, as he may be the most talented back in the conference. QB Dennis Dixon should have a much more productive senior campaign - while his 2143 yards and 61.2% completion percentage were good last year, his 12/14 TD/INT ratio, not so much. He'll be throwing to a talented WR corps, led by junior Jaison Williams. The offensive line should be around last year's level -- three starters return, and the Ducks bring in a top JuCo tackle in Fenuki Tupou. On defense, the secondary should be one of the best in the country; four of five starters return, including star safety Patrick Chung and last year's Pac 10 co-Freshman of the Year, CB Jairus Byrd. The front six pretty much consists of three starters and JuCo talent; while there may be a transition there, the defense should improve as a whole due to the secondary's strength and regression to the mean. While Oregon has road games at Michigan and UCLA, they have the luck of getting USC, Arizona State, and California at home. The Ducks have a good shot at winning three of those, and should come close to last year's projected 9 or 10 wins. There's some reason for concern, especially since new OC Chip Kelly is untested at a I-A level, but the Pac 10 is wide open enough where Oregon should have a great year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
3. Arizona State
The Sun Devils return a very good offense that should be much improved, and that starts with junior QB Rudy Carpenter. Carpenter led the country in passing efficiency as a freshman, but had a good, if disappointing second season (2523, 55.4%, 23/14). He later admitted to a fractured hand, so his statistics should be much improved. He'll also be throwing behind a much-improved O-line, which returns all five starters, three of which earned 2nd team or honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors. And the rest of the skill positions are also in good hands, as 2nd team all-Pac 10 RB Ryan Torain heads up a stacked depth chart, and senior do-everything WR Rudy Burgess is also back for another year. The defense is more of a mixed bag. Only three starters return in the front seven, though there are some sophomores with starting experience in the linebacker corps. The secondary also has to replace two starters, but some experienced upperclassmen should be plugged right in alongside senior CB Justin Tyron and FS Josh Barrett, both of which were honorable mention all-Pac 10. The Arizona State defense was very unlucky in terms of yardage vs. scoring allowed; even if the defense's level of play falters due to returning only 5 starters, the end results should still be improved. That, combined with a pretty high-powered offense that should improve with the health of Carpenter, makes ASU, much like Oregon, a very improved team. The Sun Devils also get a favorable schedule, as their four toughest games aren't until the last five; Arizona State has an excellent chance at starting 7-1 or 8-0. This should be a breakout year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
4. UCLA
UCLA returns almost everyone on both sides of the ball, which is the obvious reason for such preseason optimism. Along the offensive line, everyone but center Robert Chai returns, including top guard Shannon Tevaga. The line should be much improved, and should thus lead to much better rushing numbers from senior Chris Markey, who ran for 1107 yards, but only 2 touchdowns. Junior QB Ben Olson should also have a much-improved year, if only due to health - he threw for 822 yards and a 5/5 ratio on 63.7% passing before going down with injury. He'll be throwing to a deep WR corps, led by returning senior starters Marcus Everett and Brandon Breazell, along with 2005's top receiver, Joe Cowan, who returns from injury. On defense, there's very little not to like. Six of the front seven return, and the Bruins have experienced depth. However, last year's vulnerable secondary may now be the strength, as UCLA returns four senior starters, led by 2nd team all-Pac 10 SS Chris Horton and honorable mention CB Trey Brown. UCLA, due to all the returning talent, should obviously be much improved, but remember, this was a .500-level team last year, USC win or not. The low starting point on offense from last year, despite the returnees, makes me put UCLA at #4. Still, the Bruins are the lucky team in the 2-5 glut that draws California, Arizona State, and Oregon all at home. While the talent level may not be up to the Ducks or the Sun Devils, UCLA may be the team that winds up in second place.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
5. California
Might as well start with the good news, that being the offense. Nate Longshore was the latest in a line of very good Jeff Tedford QBs, gaining honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors on 3021 yards and a 24/13 ratio on 60.2% passing. He'll be throwing to what might be the best receiving corps in the country, led by all-Pac 10 junior DeSean Jackson and two honorable mention all-Pac 10 seniors, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. Running back Justin Forsett also returns for his senior season; he's played well in backup duty for NFL first-rounder Marshawn Lynch, rushing for 626 and 4 last season. And hey, the offensive line should be above-average as well; while two starters are gone, there's enough experience and talent to do well, and two of the returning guys are all-Pac 10 center Alex Mack and 2nd team all-Pac 10 tackle Mike Gibson. The defense, however, provides less reasons for optimism. On the plus side, a secondary that hemorrhaged yardage last season should be very much improved, as three starters return. Still, the open spot at CB may be picked upon early, as there's much more talent than experience. The front seven may also be a bit shaky - while the linebacking corps has enough experienced depth to make up for two lost starters, the defensive line returns senior DT Matthew Malele and not much else. With time, things should come together, but with the Bears leading off against Tennessee, it'll be a trial by fire. Either way, while the secondary may be improved, the defense as a whole should see some serious regression, as the Bears were extremely lucky last year; Cal allowed 20.1 points per game, while other teams close to them in yardage allowed gave up anywhere from 23 to 32. With a questionable defense that should regress and getting UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon all on the road (along with the OOC game against Tennessee), Cal could see quite a regression from last year's record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
6. Oregon State
Oregon State was a thoroughly decent team on both sides of the ball and not much more last year, though the Beavers won pretty much all of their close games en route to a 10-4 record. On offense, things look to improve on the ground. All-Pac 10 running back Yvenson Bernard returns after a 1307 yard, 12 TD season, and he'll be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four of five starters. As for the passing game, ehhhh. Star WR Sammie Stroughter, who earned 2nd team all-Pac 10 honors last year, is taking an indefinite leave of absence, and while that's a major loss, the Beavers have another capable senior (Anthony Wheat-Brown) who can lessen the blow. The real concern may be at the quarterback position, where expected starter, sophomore Sean Canfield will split time with JuCo transfer Lyle Moevao. This...seems like a bad idea. The team used this to an extent last year with Canfield and departed senior Matt Moore, but teams often succeed DESPITE this kind of arrangement, not because of it, and it seems like a risky idea given Oregon State is coming off a season with a lot of luck. The defense should do very well, as OSU returns 8 starters. The linebacking corps should be the strength, as the Beavers return all three starters, all seniors, including two time all-Pac 10 2nd teamer Derrick Doggett. Really, the defensive is solid wherever starters don't return as well, since there's an upperclassman with experience at pretty much every position. The Beavers are solidly at a talent level behind the #2-5 teams here, and above the #7-9 glut. And since with only two exceptions (at Wazzou and UCLA at home), they play the teams I rank above them on the road, and the ones below them at home, 6th place is about where they should finish. If the Beavers stick with a QB who gets hot, they may be able to engineer an upset or two, but this should be a .500 year at worst.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
7. Arizona
The offense has been the problem for the Wildcats the last few years, and last year was no exception, as Arizona had less yards per game than all but four teams in the country. What this means for next year is anyone's guess, as the team brings in OC Sonny Dykes, who was co-coordinator for one of the best offenses in the nation at Texas Tech. He has talent to work with, as the Wildcats bring back 8 returning starters. QB Willie Tuitama had a disappointing and injury-plagued sophomore campaign, but still put up passable numbers (1335, 55.9%, 7/6); he should be much-improved if healthy, especially with the new offense. Helping his health should be a much-improved offensive line, which returns all 5 starters and is teeming with high-talent, if not always experienced, depth. Receivers is somewhat of a question mark, but should still be well off; upperclassmen Anthony Johnson and Michael Thomas are returning starters, but the rest of the depth chart is talented players who have almost no experience. The RB corps is also talented, and while senior Chris Jennings has some experience, the new offense utilizes running backs much more in a receiving role; how they'll fare is somewhat of a crapshoot. The defense's improvement is much easier to projected, as the Wildcats return 9 of 11 starters on that side of the ball. Senior DE Louis Holmes was 2nd team all-Pac 10 out of junior college last year, and should improve upon that providing he avoids suspension. Senior CB Antoine Cason was also all-Pac 10 last season, and is one of the best at his position in the nation. The Wildcats have a tough schedule, and while their defense should keep them in games, bowl eligibility should depend on how well the new offense takes. If things go well, they may be able to get an upset at Oregon State or Arizona State, or at home against UCLA. If not, there's very little room for error.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
8. Washington State
Wazzou was a somewhat underrated team last year, featuring an upper-tier offense that, had it scored as many points as yardage would dictate, would've led the Cougars to 7 or 8 wins. While there are some losses, the offense should remain above-average. Senior QB Alex Brink returns after a 2nd team all-Pac 10 year, where he threw for 2899 uyards and a 19/10 ratio on 60.9% passing. He'll be throwing from behind a passing line that should remain constant if not improved, as three starters return, and the open spots will be plugged by high-talent juniors. Brink will also return two of his top three targets in senior Michael Bumpus and junior Brandon Gibson; return man Charles Dillon will be the new #3. Sophomore Dwight Tardy will lead a running back corps that returns everyone of note, and should be much improved. The defense doesn't return nearly as much. The defensive line is where most of the experience is, as while all-Pac 10 DE Mkristo Bruce departs, the other three starters return. The LB corps is probably the weakest unit; starting MLB Greg Trent returns and junior Cory Evans has some experience, but there isn't much past that. Although sophomore Andy Mattingly is Don's son, so opposing O-lineman may become distracted and try to talk to him about that or something. The secondary suffers similar losses due to graduation, but returns free safety Husain Abdullah and brings in tons of JuCo talent, led by elite recruit Terry Mixon. Wazzou's offense should keep them in a lot of games, but without much returning on defense, it'll be difficult to make it back to .500 against a tough schedule. Having to play at Wisconsin out of conference is a killer, as having Stanford at home seems like the only guaranteed win in the Pac 10.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-4 conference wins
9. Washington
Washington was below-average on both sides of the ball overall, but still played most of their games close, and with some Maryland-like luck, could've had 7 or 8 wins. 5-7 was about their projected record though, especially after then-QB Isaiah Stanback was knocked out for the year. Redshirt freshman Jake Locker will be the new QB, and comes in amidst huge expectations. While he has the talent to do well, at the very least, he should be an improvement over now-backup Carl Bonnell's 2006 numbers (916, 43.9%, 7/11). He'll be helped out by a rushing attack that should be much improved; leading rusher Louis Rankin returns, and top recruit JR Hasty will debut after missing 2006 due to academics. The offensive line should at least be decent enough to protect Locker; three starters return, and while there's little starting experience past that, there's lots of talented 2nd-stringers. The defensive situation actually looks a lot like in-state rival Wazzou's; most of the depth returns along the defensive line, which will consist of three returning starters and part-time starting DT Jordan Reffett. Past that, there's an inexperienced linebacking corps and a secondary that returns starters, but needs incoming JuCo talent to play well. Washington should be a wholly decent team, but that schedule is hell; the Huskies play Boise State, Hawaii, and Ohio State out of conference, and the two easiest teams on the schedule, Syracuse and Stanford, are both road games. This seems like a lost year, and any good news will probably be regarding the maturation of Locker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
10. Stanford
On the plus side, 16 starters return, but who knows what that means for a team that was pretty bad on defense and absolutely abhorrent on offense. Senior QB TC Ostrander has limited starting experience, and he should improve on last year's poor overall numbers at the position (1945, 52.8%, 10/11). He'll be helped by a WR corps that returns everyone of note, led by seniors Mark Bradford and 6'7" Evan Moore. The running back corps also returns pretty much everyone, and there's way too much talent to have another season as horrible as last year's was, at least you'd think. And hey, that's much the same story for the offensive line, who returns three starters and two seniors to fill the open slots. On defense, the front seven should be the most improved unit. Every starter returns except for NFL draft pick LB Michael Okwo, and there's a ton of young talent to draw from if things don't go well. The secondary is more of a mixed bag - both starting cornerbacks return, but past that, ehhhhhh. New free safety Austin Yancy had experience starting last year, although it was at receiver. Stanford has enough talent where they can pull off some upsets if Harbaugh coaches them up, but having TCU and Notre Dame as out of conference games doesn't help matters. There's a decent chance the Cardinal improve over last year's one win, at least.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE BIG 12
THE CONSENSUS:
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska (#18 overall - AT: #18, LN: #25, SN: #23, SS: #20, ST: #17)
2. Missouri (#24 overall - AT: #28, LN: #28, SN: #26, SS: #18, ST: #21)
3. Kansas State (#49 overall - AT: #46, LN: #55, SN: #46, SS: --, ST: #50)
4. Kansas (#53 overall - AT: #57, LN: #58, SN: #48, SS: --, ST: #59)
5. Colorado (#68t overall - AT: #61, LN: #74, SN: #80, SS: --, ST: #62)
6. Iowa State (#90 overall - AT: #70, LN: #90, SN: #88, SS: --, ST: #105)
Big 12 South:
1. Texas (#5 overall - AT: #2, LN: #5, SN: #6, SS: #8, ST: #8)
2. Oklahoma (#7 overall - AT: #7, LN: #10, SN: #13, SS: #7, ST: #3)
3. Texas A&M (#21 overall - AT: #23, LN: #18, SN: #35, SS: --, ST: #12)
4. Oklahoma State (#35 overall - AT: #30, LN: #42, SN: #38, SS: --, ST: #29)
5. Texas Tech (#42t overall - AT: #49, LN: #43, SN: #27, SS: --, ST: #49)
6. Baylor (#93 overall - AT: #85, LN: #75, SN: #98, SS: --, ST: #104)
OVERRATED: Nebraska. Somewhat. This was a hard one to pick, since the expectations are more or less in line with mine, but Nebraska's closer to Missouri and A&M, and is probably only second- or third-best out of the three.
UNDERRATED: Colorado. The final record probably won't reflect it due to the schedule, but the Buffaloes should be every bit the team Kansas or even KSU is.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
Big 12 North:
1. Missouri
I'm waffling back and forth, but I give the edge to Missouri as they're a more well-balanced team than Nebraska. I'll get into the defenses later, but since both teams will have high-powered offenses, might as well start there. The Tigers had an offense just outside the top 10 last year, and return more than enough talent to remain at that level. Junior QB Chase Daniel returns after an excellent first year as a starter (3527, 63.5%, 28/10), and he has two of the best tight ends in the country to throw to in all-Big 12 senior Martin Rucker and...all-Big 12 JUNIOR Chase Coffman. And hey, Missouri also returns their two starting WRs, Tommy Saunders and honorable mention all-Big 12 William Franklin. Starting RB Tony Temple also returns, and will be running behind a line that essentially returns four starters, as right guard Monte Wyrick started 7 games last year. Depth at right tackle is comparatively weak, but still, the offensive line should be good enough to allow things to happen. On defense, things are a different story. While the defense was above-average last year, only 5 starters return. The defensive line should be the strength of the D -- both starting DTs return, and junior Stryker Sulak, who was all-Big 12 as a freshman, will start at DE. Linebacker is very untested, although the group has potential. Starting MLB Brock Alexander returns, but past that there's very little experienced depth -- still, there's lots of talent, including projected 2006 starter Van Alexander, who returns from injury, and two top-tier freshmen in Michael Keck and Luke Lambert. The secondary, the strength of the defense last year, should be solid but see some regression - both starting CBs return, including honorable mention all-Big 12 Darnell Terrell, but the Tigers lose both starting safeties. Still, both projected starters are upperclassmen with some limited starting experience. Missouri's a very talented team, especially on offense, and has the schedule to have a big year -- they avoid Texas, and get Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. That leaves at Oklahoma as the one major underdog game, and while I don't think Missouri's at the level of team where they can pull off that upset and go undefeated, there's an outside, 2% or so chance. Still, either way, should be a good season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
2. Nebraska
Might as well address Missouri vs. Nebraska here -- both teams are in a similar situation, returning a lot from a high-powered offense, and bringing back only 5 starters on defense. However, while the two had similar scoring defense numbers, Nebraska was far luckier, allowing about 50 yards per game more than the other teams around their scoring level. So, while I think the Nebraska defense may be more improved, there are two problems:
1) I don't think that improvement will be enough to catch up with a Missouri defense that should at least stay stable, if not improve themselves.
2) The Nebraska defensive line is a bigger question mark than any individual unit on Missouri's D.
And the offenses are a wash, so with THAT out of the way, let's look at said offense, which was one of the best in the nation last year. At QB, Zac Taylor gives way to senior Arizona State transfer Sam Keller, who was a top-flight player as a starter with the Sun Devils. As such, there should be little dropoff from Taylor's 2006 line (3197, 59.6%, 26/8). And hey, while Nebraska loses starting TE Matt Herian, Keller will have two very good receivers to throw to in seniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify. At RB, Marlon Lucky heads up one of the deepest RB corps in the country; while Lucky's disappointed in his first two years, he has the talent to explode at any moment, and again, Nebraska has enough RB depth to kill a horse that is allergic to running back depth. And of course, the key to it all is the offensive line, where the Huskers return 4 starters (although only 3 are projected to start) -- and really, it's Nebraska, so more than enough talent returns to fill the available holes. On defense, there's some stuff to like, especially the linebacking corps, which returns senior starters Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, who were all Big-12 in 2006 and 2nd team all Big-12 in 2005, respectively. Talented if oft-injured Steve Octavien returns in the other spot, and there's also tons of talented depth. The secondary should also be much improved after a disappointing season last year. CB Zackary Bowman's story is a lot like Octavien - more than enough talent to dominate, but often struggling with injuries. Still, the Huskers should easily get by without him, as they have both honorable mention all-Big 12 Cortney Grixby and 2005 starter Andre Jones at the position. The defensive line is easily the biggest weakness, or at least question mark, for Nebraska as a whole. No starters return, and there's very little experience, although there's a very high talent level. Hopefully they'll come together before the game against USC. Nebraska should have another good year, although they may not reach double digit wins. USC is, obviously, the big test on the out of conference schedule, and the Huskers draw both Texas and Missouri at home. Still, they do have some luck, in that they get possible trap games at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Kansas State all in Lincoln. This should be another solid year, and Nebraska has a great shot at repeating as Big 12 North champs.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Kansas State
3-5 is somewhat of a glut, but Kansas State seems to be the most well-rounded of these teams. The Wildcat offense was fairly mediocre last year, but looks to be much improved. Returning QB Josh Freeman was thrown into the fire as a freshman last year, and did about as expected: sone decent numbers (1780 on 51.9% passing) but a horrible 6/15 TD/INT ratio. He has the talent to be much improved this year, and he should be helped by returning honorable mention all-Big 12 WR Jordy Nelson. The improvement of the offensive line should also be a help, as three starters return along with RG Logan Robinson, who started the last four games of 2006. All in all, the offense won't be able to compete with, say, Nebraska or Missouri, but should move up a tier. On defense, things should also steadily improve. The secondary should be the strength - three starters return, including honorable mention all-Big Ten FS Marcus Watts, and the strong safety spot should be easily filled; Andrew Erker, who started for Watts after he was injured, returns, and KSU brings in talented JuCo DB Gary Chandler. The front seven is more a mixed bag - the defensive line should be a strength, returning all-Big 12 DE Ian Campbell as one of three starters, but the linebacking corps is fairly untested. Luckily, the Wildcats get both Kansas and Colorado at home, so the possibility of an upset is diminished. Still, KSU has a number of road games that aren't likely to be won - Nebraska and Texas in-conference, as well as Auburn to start the season; at Oklahoma State should also be a tough one. While KSU is an improving team headed back in the right direction, and while they should be solid this year, I don't see it as a breakout season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. Kansas
Kansas's 6-6 record played mostly to projection last year, mostly on the strength of a very good offense and a defense that was, well, not so much. QB Kerry Meier returns after a decent freshman year (1193, 56.5%, 13/10); while he should improve on those numbers, exactly how much remains to be seen, as the offensive line is somewhat of a question mark. Both starting tackles return, but the middle three spots have been gutted; there's some limited starting experience, but things could go either way - the line may not come together, but there's enough talent where the Jayhawks may not see much of a dropoff. Luckily, KU has the schedule early to where the latter can happen. Still, if the OL doesn't develop, it may be a big concern to the offense, as the running game is also in flux. Jon Cornish led the Big 12 in rushing last year, but departs, leaving talented sophomore Jake Sharp as the starter - while Sharp, as his 6.1 YPC last year shows, can excel, who knows how he'll do if the line is weak. On the flip side, things should be much improved from last year's dismal defense. This is especially true along the secondary, which was horrible last year but returns a surprisingly excellent duo of CBs, in all-Big 12 junior Aqib Talib and sophomore Anthony Webb, who were both playmakers last season. The front seven should also see some improvement, as Kansas returns an experienced LB corps, and a defensive line that features a mix of talent and experience, including 2nd team all-Big 12 DT James McClinton. While the offense may take a step down, the defense should be much-improved, making Kansas a more well-rounded, and probably more improved team this year. While the OOC schedule contains two tough MAC teams, Central Michigan and Toledo, Kansas is still in a position where they can sweep that, and combined with home games against Baylor and Iowa State, sets up the Jayhawks for bowl eligibility. Having both Kansas State and Colorado on the road doesn't give them much of a safety net, however. Still, again, this should be an improved team, and with some luck here and there, one that could easily surprise with a 7 or 8 win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
5. Colorado
While last year was a step back, it wasn't an unmitigated disaster; Colorado played Georgia among other teams close, and should've fallen to about 4-8, rather than 2-10. The first step will be improving an offense that was close to the dregs last year, and luckily, things seem positioned to do just that. While QB Bernard Jackson wasn't a disaster last year, a 49.3% completion percentage suggests there's room for improvement, and he gives way to talented redshirt frosh Cody Hawkins, who also happens to be coach Dan Hawkins's son. The other transition takes place along the offensive line, where CU loses two starters; it's much the same story, as mediocre experience gives way to extremely promising talent, including true frosh Ryan Miller, perhaps the best OL recruit of the 2007 class. Hawkins, both Cody and Dan, will have a number of weapons to work with; honorable mention all-Big 12 RB Hugh Charles returns, as does everyone of note in the receiving corps. The defense should at least remain steady; each unit has losses, but returns enough experience to stay stable. Four of the front seven return from a run D that was the Buffaloes' strength last year, and the three other spots should be filled by players with starting experience. Things should be most improved in the seconday, however; senior all-Big 12 CB Terrence Wheatley is one of two returning starters, and again, experienced depth returns, as well as talented Idaho transfer SS Daniel Dykes. Colorado could be a surprise team, especially in the second year of Hawkins's systems, though the schedule isn't very conducive to success. Three of the first five games are Florida State and Oklahoma at home and Arizona State on the road, and possible upsets against KSU or Texas Tech are also away from Boulder. Colorado could sneak its way into bowl eligibility, as this is a team talented enough to pull off an upset or two, but it doesn't look like the record will match the team's actual improvement.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Iowa State
This will not go well. Neither side of the ball was very good last year, with the offense being slightly better than the defense, and the Cyclones only return 4 starters from the former and 7 from the latter. On offense, QB Bret Meyer returns for his fourth year as starter, and after being the Big 12's best returning QB by default last year, he put up a mediocre season (2546, 56.4%, 12/12). Luckily, he'll be throwing to a top receiver in Todd Blythe, who suffered injuries last year but was all-Big 12 in 2005. Still, past that, WR depth is mediocre. There doesn't look to be much help elsewhere, either. The top two rushers leave from last year's disappointing RB corps, so while things would be poised to improve, the offensive line has also been decimated by graduation, returning only one starter. There's enough upperclassmen and JuCo transfers to patch something together, but between the inexperience and the new system, ehhhh. There should be more improvement on defense, however. Three of four starters return in the secondary, and all-Big 12 Alvin Bowen comes back after leading the NCAA in tackles per game. This looks like a lost year for ISU, as even in the best-case scenario, there isn't much upward mobility. The Cyclones draw both Texas and Oklahoma from the South, but not Baylor, and they also have to play Iowa out of conference. ISU may be able to upset Kansas State or Colorado at home late, but outside of that, the only game they may win after their last two is at Toledo. The Cyclones may not go winless, but if things go as well as they can, they'll probably top out at last year's 4-8 record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma
Oh, it's close. Both OU and Texas could've gone undefeated last year, and they were both statistically similar (Texas a notch better on offense, Oklahoma the same on defense), but I give the edge to the Sooners. I actually may like the OU offense ever-so-slightly better, as they return eight starters and those losses may more or less be washes. Redshirt frosh Sam Bradford was recently announced as the starter, and while conventional wisdom says he will see a drop from departing Paul Thompson's stats (2667, 60.7%, 22/11), Thompson was forced into action in August due to suspension. So, while there may be a slight drop-off, it shouldn't be as much as you'd think. Similarly, star RB and top-10 draft pick Adrian Peterson has departed, but OU has the 1-2 punch to replace him: senior Allen Patrick, who played well while Peterson was injured, and redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray, who has been touted as, well, the next Adrian Peterson. They'll be running behind a top-tier offensive line, which returns four starters and a heckuva lot of talent, including JuCo stud Phil Loadholt. And hey, just for good measure, everyone returns in the receiving corps, including 2nd team all-Big 12 WR Malcolm Kelly and two honorable mention TEs in Joe Jon Finley and Brody Eldridge. And, of course, the OU defense should be stout once again. The front seven replaces a lot, so that may be the weakness early on, but as you'd expect, the level of talent here, especially at linebacker and DT, is elite enough where things should be fine. And, luckily, OU also returns what is probably the best secondary in the nation, as all four starters return, including all-Big 12 SS Reggie Smith, and there's tons of experienced depth. It should be another elite-level year for OU, and while there's tests at home against Miami, Missouri, and Texas A&M, the Sooners' national title hopes should once again come down to the game with Texas.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Texas
Don't hurt me, Longhorns fans. It's close between OU and Texas, but minor questions along the o-line and especially concerns with the secondary for Texas made me put them here. Might as well start with that offensive line, as it's really the one point of concern on the offense, if it even is one. Since sophomore Adam Ulatoski started 7 games last year, the Longhorns essentially return 3 starters. Everyone has talent, but has spent most of their career as a 2nd stringer - this is fine for new center Dallas Griffin, since he's a senior, but it may be more of a concern at left guard, where everyone is an underclassman. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the line should be more than fine. Returning QB Colt McCoy did way better than anyone expected as a redshirt freshman (2570, 68.2%, 29/7), and that's with some injuries at the end of the year. And he'll have some weapons too, with all-Big 12 WR Limas Sweed heading an elite receiving corps, and 2nd team all-Big 12 RB Jamaal Charles returning for what should be an improvement over last year's 831 yard/7 TD season. On defense, the front seven should be among the best in the nation, as everyone returns except for the DEs, including DT Frank Okam, who's one of the top few in the nation. And hey, those DEs are no slouches, as both Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis have put up impressive numbers in the action they've seen. The secondary is easily the biggest question mark for the team as a whole. The safeties should be fine - SS Marcus Griffin is the lone returning starter, and new FS Drew Kelson is a senior with some starting experience. The CBs are another story, however: there's lots of talent, obviously, but almost nothing in terms of experience, even with one or two upperclassmen. The pass defense will probably be the key to Texas's season, especially since Texas should be so stout against the run that teams will throw early and often. There's not much hidden insight or anything I can give into Texas's season as a whole. Texas is an obvious national title contender, and Oklahoma is the obvious big game that matters. Texas gets upset hopefuls TCU and Nebraska at home, leaving late road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M the only looming traps if the Longhorns get by OU. Another season, most likely another set of double-digit W's.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Texas A&M
Since the near-upset at the hands of Army is the first thought that comes to mind when I think of "2006 Aggies", it's surprising that TAMU was 6 total points away from being undefeated in the regular season. If only the Aggies were returning more on defense, then I might think about putting them higher. Might as well start with the offense, where TAMU has a pretty loaded backfield. Junior Stephen McGee had a very underrated year last season, throwing for 2295 and a 12/2 TD/INT ratio on 62% passing. And his TD count might've been higher if not for touchdown machine Jorvorskie Lane, who had 19 scores on the ground. And hey! He might not even be the best back on the team, as TAMU also returns sophomore Mike Goodson, who led the team with 929 rushing yards on an outstanding 6.7 yards per carry. And things should only improve behind an elite offensive line that returns four top-tier starters; the fifth should be senior guard Chris Yoder, who actually started as a freshman. And hey, junior TE Martellus Bennett is one of the best out there too. On defense, the defensive line should be a strength, as DE Chris Harrington and DT Red Bryant are arguably the Aggies' best players on that side of the ball. Since A&M switched to a 4-2-5 last year, they only have two linebackers, but that unit should be fairly well off, too; starter Misi Tupe returns alongside Mark Dodge, who actually earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors as a part time starter. The secondary should do fairly well - having five starters spreads the depth a bit thin, but A&M does return three starters. If A&M had a luckier schedule, they could be a surprise national title contender, and while they get Texas at home to end the season, they have one too many tough road games in Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Still, TAMU has the talent level (one probably higher than the two North teams) to at least split those, and it looks like this should be a good enough season to save Dennis Franchione's job.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a dangerous trio of players at the skill positions. QB Bobby Reid returns after a solid first year as starter (2266, 55.4%, 24/11); while his stats may not match his reputation just yet, that may change this season, especially since he'll be throwing to UNC transfer and last year's Big 12 Newcomer Of The Year in Adarius Bowman. And at RB, OSU returns talented sophomore Keith Toston and starter Dantrell Savage, who ran for 820 yards on 6.5 yards per carry when not injured. The offensive line should once again be solid -- three starters return, and while both the depth at guard is shaky, things should remain around last year's level. The defense should see some noticeable improvement. Every starter returns from both the secondary and the linebacking corps, including QB-turned-FS Donovan Woods and top CB Martel Van Zant (he's deaf!). And while the defensive line officially returns no starters, it should be fairly well off. The talent level is high, and both DEs might as well be returning starters; Nathan Peterson earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors in limited action last year, and Marque Fountain has only seen part-time starting duty due to constant struggles with injury. All in all, OK State should be one a much improved team, and much more well-rounded than their OFFENSETASTIC! 2006, although they may struggle to turn that into something palpable. They have OU, A&M, Nebraska, and an OOC game against Georgia all on the road, which greatly diminishes the chance of an upset. Still, this is a team that can torch an opponent with secondary issues, and they get Texas at home, so there is the chance of an upset there. It should be another bowl-eligible season, easy, and in a different year a team like this might see some noticeable upward mobility, but with what other teams return, OSU may just have to settle for closing the gap.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Texas Tech
Texas Tech's defense was surprisingly fine last year, but only 5 starters return, so that's probably out the window for 2007. So, you know what to expect, a lot of passing yards on offense, and on defense, prayer. TTU's strength this year is their backfield; RB Shannon Woods was all-Big 12 last year, and Graham Harrell is the first returning starter here in five years. Of course, he's looking to build on the usual insane Red Raiders QB stat line: 4555, 66.8%, 38/11. Two of the four starting WRs also return, but the main concern should be the O-line, where only honorable mention all-Big 12 left tackle Louis Vasquez returns. The talent level's enough where things should be solid, but still, it should be comparatively rough going. On defense, at least three of four starters return in the secondary, led by SS Joe Garcia. In the front seven, however, there's only two starters back. While the LB corps has a solid mix of some experience and some talent, the defensive line should be more of a concern; there's DE Jake Ratliff, who was honorable mention all-Big 12 last year, but past that, it's almost exclusively underclassmen. It should be a down year for Texas Tech - the offensive line is a big question mark, and the defense should regress quite a bit from last year. Luckily, TTU has a weak out of conference schedule, and they draw both Iowa State and Colorado at home from the North. That, plus Baylor, gives them a safety net for bowl eligibility, but past that, there's doesn't seem to be much upward potential.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Baylor
Poor Baylor. While their 4-8 record was close to projection, they weren't very good on the whole statistically last year, and this season looks like a rebuilding one. Whoever the starter at QB is (the favorite seems to be Kent State transfer Michael Machen), at least three of Baylor's four returning starters on offense are along the line. Sophomore WR David Gettis was a high-talent recruit; he may provide a bright spot, as his 20.5 yards per his 4 receptions showed. While Baylor's in the second year of a spread offense, the talent losses will probably prevent the Bears from reaping the benefits; at the very least, the running game should be able to improve from dead last in America. Defense is slightly better - five of the front seven return, with the bright spot being 2nd team all-Big 12 LB Joe Pawelek. The secondary is much more of a mixed bag; while both starting safeties return, the CB position mostly have players who haven't done much in their playing time. While the Bears should be improved on defense somewhat, it looks like a hapless year. Baylor should still win 3 games based on their weak OOC schedule, but without drawing Iowa State from the North, their best chance at a conference win looks to be at home against Colorado, where their chances are still fairly slim.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska (#18 overall - AT: #18, LN: #25, SN: #23, SS: #20, ST: #17)
2. Missouri (#24 overall - AT: #28, LN: #28, SN: #26, SS: #18, ST: #21)
3. Kansas State (#49 overall - AT: #46, LN: #55, SN: #46, SS: --, ST: #50)
4. Kansas (#53 overall - AT: #57, LN: #58, SN: #48, SS: --, ST: #59)
5. Colorado (#68t overall - AT: #61, LN: #74, SN: #80, SS: --, ST: #62)
6. Iowa State (#90 overall - AT: #70, LN: #90, SN: #88, SS: --, ST: #105)
Big 12 South:
1. Texas (#5 overall - AT: #2, LN: #5, SN: #6, SS: #8, ST: #8)
2. Oklahoma (#7 overall - AT: #7, LN: #10, SN: #13, SS: #7, ST: #3)
3. Texas A&M (#21 overall - AT: #23, LN: #18, SN: #35, SS: --, ST: #12)
4. Oklahoma State (#35 overall - AT: #30, LN: #42, SN: #38, SS: --, ST: #29)
5. Texas Tech (#42t overall - AT: #49, LN: #43, SN: #27, SS: --, ST: #49)
6. Baylor (#93 overall - AT: #85, LN: #75, SN: #98, SS: --, ST: #104)
OVERRATED: Nebraska. Somewhat. This was a hard one to pick, since the expectations are more or less in line with mine, but Nebraska's closer to Missouri and A&M, and is probably only second- or third-best out of the three.
UNDERRATED: Colorado. The final record probably won't reflect it due to the schedule, but the Buffaloes should be every bit the team Kansas or even KSU is.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
Big 12 North:
1. Missouri
I'm waffling back and forth, but I give the edge to Missouri as they're a more well-balanced team than Nebraska. I'll get into the defenses later, but since both teams will have high-powered offenses, might as well start there. The Tigers had an offense just outside the top 10 last year, and return more than enough talent to remain at that level. Junior QB Chase Daniel returns after an excellent first year as a starter (3527, 63.5%, 28/10), and he has two of the best tight ends in the country to throw to in all-Big 12 senior Martin Rucker and...all-Big 12 JUNIOR Chase Coffman. And hey, Missouri also returns their two starting WRs, Tommy Saunders and honorable mention all-Big 12 William Franklin. Starting RB Tony Temple also returns, and will be running behind a line that essentially returns four starters, as right guard Monte Wyrick started 7 games last year. Depth at right tackle is comparatively weak, but still, the offensive line should be good enough to allow things to happen. On defense, things are a different story. While the defense was above-average last year, only 5 starters return. The defensive line should be the strength of the D -- both starting DTs return, and junior Stryker Sulak, who was all-Big 12 as a freshman, will start at DE. Linebacker is very untested, although the group has potential. Starting MLB Brock Alexander returns, but past that there's very little experienced depth -- still, there's lots of talent, including projected 2006 starter Van Alexander, who returns from injury, and two top-tier freshmen in Michael Keck and Luke Lambert. The secondary, the strength of the defense last year, should be solid but see some regression - both starting CBs return, including honorable mention all-Big 12 Darnell Terrell, but the Tigers lose both starting safeties. Still, both projected starters are upperclassmen with some limited starting experience. Missouri's a very talented team, especially on offense, and has the schedule to have a big year -- they avoid Texas, and get Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. That leaves at Oklahoma as the one major underdog game, and while I don't think Missouri's at the level of team where they can pull off that upset and go undefeated, there's an outside, 2% or so chance. Still, either way, should be a good season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
2. Nebraska
Might as well address Missouri vs. Nebraska here -- both teams are in a similar situation, returning a lot from a high-powered offense, and bringing back only 5 starters on defense. However, while the two had similar scoring defense numbers, Nebraska was far luckier, allowing about 50 yards per game more than the other teams around their scoring level. So, while I think the Nebraska defense may be more improved, there are two problems:
1) I don't think that improvement will be enough to catch up with a Missouri defense that should at least stay stable, if not improve themselves.
2) The Nebraska defensive line is a bigger question mark than any individual unit on Missouri's D.
And the offenses are a wash, so with THAT out of the way, let's look at said offense, which was one of the best in the nation last year. At QB, Zac Taylor gives way to senior Arizona State transfer Sam Keller, who was a top-flight player as a starter with the Sun Devils. As such, there should be little dropoff from Taylor's 2006 line (3197, 59.6%, 26/8). And hey, while Nebraska loses starting TE Matt Herian, Keller will have two very good receivers to throw to in seniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify. At RB, Marlon Lucky heads up one of the deepest RB corps in the country; while Lucky's disappointed in his first two years, he has the talent to explode at any moment, and again, Nebraska has enough RB depth to kill a horse that is allergic to running back depth. And of course, the key to it all is the offensive line, where the Huskers return 4 starters (although only 3 are projected to start) -- and really, it's Nebraska, so more than enough talent returns to fill the available holes. On defense, there's some stuff to like, especially the linebacking corps, which returns senior starters Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, who were all Big-12 in 2006 and 2nd team all Big-12 in 2005, respectively. Talented if oft-injured Steve Octavien returns in the other spot, and there's also tons of talented depth. The secondary should also be much improved after a disappointing season last year. CB Zackary Bowman's story is a lot like Octavien - more than enough talent to dominate, but often struggling with injuries. Still, the Huskers should easily get by without him, as they have both honorable mention all-Big 12 Cortney Grixby and 2005 starter Andre Jones at the position. The defensive line is easily the biggest weakness, or at least question mark, for Nebraska as a whole. No starters return, and there's very little experience, although there's a very high talent level. Hopefully they'll come together before the game against USC. Nebraska should have another good year, although they may not reach double digit wins. USC is, obviously, the big test on the out of conference schedule, and the Huskers draw both Texas and Missouri at home. Still, they do have some luck, in that they get possible trap games at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Kansas State all in Lincoln. This should be another solid year, and Nebraska has a great shot at repeating as Big 12 North champs.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Kansas State
3-5 is somewhat of a glut, but Kansas State seems to be the most well-rounded of these teams. The Wildcat offense was fairly mediocre last year, but looks to be much improved. Returning QB Josh Freeman was thrown into the fire as a freshman last year, and did about as expected: sone decent numbers (1780 on 51.9% passing) but a horrible 6/15 TD/INT ratio. He has the talent to be much improved this year, and he should be helped by returning honorable mention all-Big 12 WR Jordy Nelson. The improvement of the offensive line should also be a help, as three starters return along with RG Logan Robinson, who started the last four games of 2006. All in all, the offense won't be able to compete with, say, Nebraska or Missouri, but should move up a tier. On defense, things should also steadily improve. The secondary should be the strength - three starters return, including honorable mention all-Big Ten FS Marcus Watts, and the strong safety spot should be easily filled; Andrew Erker, who started for Watts after he was injured, returns, and KSU brings in talented JuCo DB Gary Chandler. The front seven is more a mixed bag - the defensive line should be a strength, returning all-Big 12 DE Ian Campbell as one of three starters, but the linebacking corps is fairly untested. Luckily, the Wildcats get both Kansas and Colorado at home, so the possibility of an upset is diminished. Still, KSU has a number of road games that aren't likely to be won - Nebraska and Texas in-conference, as well as Auburn to start the season; at Oklahoma State should also be a tough one. While KSU is an improving team headed back in the right direction, and while they should be solid this year, I don't see it as a breakout season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. Kansas
Kansas's 6-6 record played mostly to projection last year, mostly on the strength of a very good offense and a defense that was, well, not so much. QB Kerry Meier returns after a decent freshman year (1193, 56.5%, 13/10); while he should improve on those numbers, exactly how much remains to be seen, as the offensive line is somewhat of a question mark. Both starting tackles return, but the middle three spots have been gutted; there's some limited starting experience, but things could go either way - the line may not come together, but there's enough talent where the Jayhawks may not see much of a dropoff. Luckily, KU has the schedule early to where the latter can happen. Still, if the OL doesn't develop, it may be a big concern to the offense, as the running game is also in flux. Jon Cornish led the Big 12 in rushing last year, but departs, leaving talented sophomore Jake Sharp as the starter - while Sharp, as his 6.1 YPC last year shows, can excel, who knows how he'll do if the line is weak. On the flip side, things should be much improved from last year's dismal defense. This is especially true along the secondary, which was horrible last year but returns a surprisingly excellent duo of CBs, in all-Big 12 junior Aqib Talib and sophomore Anthony Webb, who were both playmakers last season. The front seven should also see some improvement, as Kansas returns an experienced LB corps, and a defensive line that features a mix of talent and experience, including 2nd team all-Big 12 DT James McClinton. While the offense may take a step down, the defense should be much-improved, making Kansas a more well-rounded, and probably more improved team this year. While the OOC schedule contains two tough MAC teams, Central Michigan and Toledo, Kansas is still in a position where they can sweep that, and combined with home games against Baylor and Iowa State, sets up the Jayhawks for bowl eligibility. Having both Kansas State and Colorado on the road doesn't give them much of a safety net, however. Still, again, this should be an improved team, and with some luck here and there, one that could easily surprise with a 7 or 8 win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
5. Colorado
While last year was a step back, it wasn't an unmitigated disaster; Colorado played Georgia among other teams close, and should've fallen to about 4-8, rather than 2-10. The first step will be improving an offense that was close to the dregs last year, and luckily, things seem positioned to do just that. While QB Bernard Jackson wasn't a disaster last year, a 49.3% completion percentage suggests there's room for improvement, and he gives way to talented redshirt frosh Cody Hawkins, who also happens to be coach Dan Hawkins's son. The other transition takes place along the offensive line, where CU loses two starters; it's much the same story, as mediocre experience gives way to extremely promising talent, including true frosh Ryan Miller, perhaps the best OL recruit of the 2007 class. Hawkins, both Cody and Dan, will have a number of weapons to work with; honorable mention all-Big 12 RB Hugh Charles returns, as does everyone of note in the receiving corps. The defense should at least remain steady; each unit has losses, but returns enough experience to stay stable. Four of the front seven return from a run D that was the Buffaloes' strength last year, and the three other spots should be filled by players with starting experience. Things should be most improved in the seconday, however; senior all-Big 12 CB Terrence Wheatley is one of two returning starters, and again, experienced depth returns, as well as talented Idaho transfer SS Daniel Dykes. Colorado could be a surprise team, especially in the second year of Hawkins's systems, though the schedule isn't very conducive to success. Three of the first five games are Florida State and Oklahoma at home and Arizona State on the road, and possible upsets against KSU or Texas Tech are also away from Boulder. Colorado could sneak its way into bowl eligibility, as this is a team talented enough to pull off an upset or two, but it doesn't look like the record will match the team's actual improvement.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Iowa State
This will not go well. Neither side of the ball was very good last year, with the offense being slightly better than the defense, and the Cyclones only return 4 starters from the former and 7 from the latter. On offense, QB Bret Meyer returns for his fourth year as starter, and after being the Big 12's best returning QB by default last year, he put up a mediocre season (2546, 56.4%, 12/12). Luckily, he'll be throwing to a top receiver in Todd Blythe, who suffered injuries last year but was all-Big 12 in 2005. Still, past that, WR depth is mediocre. There doesn't look to be much help elsewhere, either. The top two rushers leave from last year's disappointing RB corps, so while things would be poised to improve, the offensive line has also been decimated by graduation, returning only one starter. There's enough upperclassmen and JuCo transfers to patch something together, but between the inexperience and the new system, ehhhh. There should be more improvement on defense, however. Three of four starters return in the secondary, and all-Big 12 Alvin Bowen comes back after leading the NCAA in tackles per game. This looks like a lost year for ISU, as even in the best-case scenario, there isn't much upward mobility. The Cyclones draw both Texas and Oklahoma from the South, but not Baylor, and they also have to play Iowa out of conference. ISU may be able to upset Kansas State or Colorado at home late, but outside of that, the only game they may win after their last two is at Toledo. The Cyclones may not go winless, but if things go as well as they can, they'll probably top out at last year's 4-8 record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma
Oh, it's close. Both OU and Texas could've gone undefeated last year, and they were both statistically similar (Texas a notch better on offense, Oklahoma the same on defense), but I give the edge to the Sooners. I actually may like the OU offense ever-so-slightly better, as they return eight starters and those losses may more or less be washes. Redshirt frosh Sam Bradford was recently announced as the starter, and while conventional wisdom says he will see a drop from departing Paul Thompson's stats (2667, 60.7%, 22/11), Thompson was forced into action in August due to suspension. So, while there may be a slight drop-off, it shouldn't be as much as you'd think. Similarly, star RB and top-10 draft pick Adrian Peterson has departed, but OU has the 1-2 punch to replace him: senior Allen Patrick, who played well while Peterson was injured, and redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray, who has been touted as, well, the next Adrian Peterson. They'll be running behind a top-tier offensive line, which returns four starters and a heckuva lot of talent, including JuCo stud Phil Loadholt. And hey, just for good measure, everyone returns in the receiving corps, including 2nd team all-Big 12 WR Malcolm Kelly and two honorable mention TEs in Joe Jon Finley and Brody Eldridge. And, of course, the OU defense should be stout once again. The front seven replaces a lot, so that may be the weakness early on, but as you'd expect, the level of talent here, especially at linebacker and DT, is elite enough where things should be fine. And, luckily, OU also returns what is probably the best secondary in the nation, as all four starters return, including all-Big 12 SS Reggie Smith, and there's tons of experienced depth. It should be another elite-level year for OU, and while there's tests at home against Miami, Missouri, and Texas A&M, the Sooners' national title hopes should once again come down to the game with Texas.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Texas
Don't hurt me, Longhorns fans. It's close between OU and Texas, but minor questions along the o-line and especially concerns with the secondary for Texas made me put them here. Might as well start with that offensive line, as it's really the one point of concern on the offense, if it even is one. Since sophomore Adam Ulatoski started 7 games last year, the Longhorns essentially return 3 starters. Everyone has talent, but has spent most of their career as a 2nd stringer - this is fine for new center Dallas Griffin, since he's a senior, but it may be more of a concern at left guard, where everyone is an underclassman. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the line should be more than fine. Returning QB Colt McCoy did way better than anyone expected as a redshirt freshman (2570, 68.2%, 29/7), and that's with some injuries at the end of the year. And he'll have some weapons too, with all-Big 12 WR Limas Sweed heading an elite receiving corps, and 2nd team all-Big 12 RB Jamaal Charles returning for what should be an improvement over last year's 831 yard/7 TD season. On defense, the front seven should be among the best in the nation, as everyone returns except for the DEs, including DT Frank Okam, who's one of the top few in the nation. And hey, those DEs are no slouches, as both Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis have put up impressive numbers in the action they've seen. The secondary is easily the biggest question mark for the team as a whole. The safeties should be fine - SS Marcus Griffin is the lone returning starter, and new FS Drew Kelson is a senior with some starting experience. The CBs are another story, however: there's lots of talent, obviously, but almost nothing in terms of experience, even with one or two upperclassmen. The pass defense will probably be the key to Texas's season, especially since Texas should be so stout against the run that teams will throw early and often. There's not much hidden insight or anything I can give into Texas's season as a whole. Texas is an obvious national title contender, and Oklahoma is the obvious big game that matters. Texas gets upset hopefuls TCU and Nebraska at home, leaving late road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M the only looming traps if the Longhorns get by OU. Another season, most likely another set of double-digit W's.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Texas A&M
Since the near-upset at the hands of Army is the first thought that comes to mind when I think of "2006 Aggies", it's surprising that TAMU was 6 total points away from being undefeated in the regular season. If only the Aggies were returning more on defense, then I might think about putting them higher. Might as well start with the offense, where TAMU has a pretty loaded backfield. Junior Stephen McGee had a very underrated year last season, throwing for 2295 and a 12/2 TD/INT ratio on 62% passing. And his TD count might've been higher if not for touchdown machine Jorvorskie Lane, who had 19 scores on the ground. And hey! He might not even be the best back on the team, as TAMU also returns sophomore Mike Goodson, who led the team with 929 rushing yards on an outstanding 6.7 yards per carry. And things should only improve behind an elite offensive line that returns four top-tier starters; the fifth should be senior guard Chris Yoder, who actually started as a freshman. And hey, junior TE Martellus Bennett is one of the best out there too. On defense, the defensive line should be a strength, as DE Chris Harrington and DT Red Bryant are arguably the Aggies' best players on that side of the ball. Since A&M switched to a 4-2-5 last year, they only have two linebackers, but that unit should be fairly well off, too; starter Misi Tupe returns alongside Mark Dodge, who actually earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors as a part time starter. The secondary should do fairly well - having five starters spreads the depth a bit thin, but A&M does return three starters. If A&M had a luckier schedule, they could be a surprise national title contender, and while they get Texas at home to end the season, they have one too many tough road games in Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Still, TAMU has the talent level (one probably higher than the two North teams) to at least split those, and it looks like this should be a good enough season to save Dennis Franchione's job.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a dangerous trio of players at the skill positions. QB Bobby Reid returns after a solid first year as starter (2266, 55.4%, 24/11); while his stats may not match his reputation just yet, that may change this season, especially since he'll be throwing to UNC transfer and last year's Big 12 Newcomer Of The Year in Adarius Bowman. And at RB, OSU returns talented sophomore Keith Toston and starter Dantrell Savage, who ran for 820 yards on 6.5 yards per carry when not injured. The offensive line should once again be solid -- three starters return, and while both the depth at guard is shaky, things should remain around last year's level. The defense should see some noticeable improvement. Every starter returns from both the secondary and the linebacking corps, including QB-turned-FS Donovan Woods and top CB Martel Van Zant (he's deaf!). And while the defensive line officially returns no starters, it should be fairly well off. The talent level is high, and both DEs might as well be returning starters; Nathan Peterson earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors in limited action last year, and Marque Fountain has only seen part-time starting duty due to constant struggles with injury. All in all, OK State should be one a much improved team, and much more well-rounded than their OFFENSETASTIC! 2006, although they may struggle to turn that into something palpable. They have OU, A&M, Nebraska, and an OOC game against Georgia all on the road, which greatly diminishes the chance of an upset. Still, this is a team that can torch an opponent with secondary issues, and they get Texas at home, so there is the chance of an upset there. It should be another bowl-eligible season, easy, and in a different year a team like this might see some noticeable upward mobility, but with what other teams return, OSU may just have to settle for closing the gap.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Texas Tech
Texas Tech's defense was surprisingly fine last year, but only 5 starters return, so that's probably out the window for 2007. So, you know what to expect, a lot of passing yards on offense, and on defense, prayer. TTU's strength this year is their backfield; RB Shannon Woods was all-Big 12 last year, and Graham Harrell is the first returning starter here in five years. Of course, he's looking to build on the usual insane Red Raiders QB stat line: 4555, 66.8%, 38/11. Two of the four starting WRs also return, but the main concern should be the O-line, where only honorable mention all-Big 12 left tackle Louis Vasquez returns. The talent level's enough where things should be solid, but still, it should be comparatively rough going. On defense, at least three of four starters return in the secondary, led by SS Joe Garcia. In the front seven, however, there's only two starters back. While the LB corps has a solid mix of some experience and some talent, the defensive line should be more of a concern; there's DE Jake Ratliff, who was honorable mention all-Big 12 last year, but past that, it's almost exclusively underclassmen. It should be a down year for Texas Tech - the offensive line is a big question mark, and the defense should regress quite a bit from last year. Luckily, TTU has a weak out of conference schedule, and they draw both Iowa State and Colorado at home from the North. That, plus Baylor, gives them a safety net for bowl eligibility, but past that, there's doesn't seem to be much upward potential.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Baylor
Poor Baylor. While their 4-8 record was close to projection, they weren't very good on the whole statistically last year, and this season looks like a rebuilding one. Whoever the starter at QB is (the favorite seems to be Kent State transfer Michael Machen), at least three of Baylor's four returning starters on offense are along the line. Sophomore WR David Gettis was a high-talent recruit; he may provide a bright spot, as his 20.5 yards per his 4 receptions showed. While Baylor's in the second year of a spread offense, the talent losses will probably prevent the Bears from reaping the benefits; at the very least, the running game should be able to improve from dead last in America. Defense is slightly better - five of the front seven return, with the bright spot being 2nd team all-Big 12 LB Joe Pawelek. The secondary is much more of a mixed bag; while both starting safeties return, the CB position mostly have players who haven't done much in their playing time. While the Bears should be improved on defense somewhat, it looks like a hapless year. Baylor should still win 3 games based on their weak OOC schedule, but without drawing Iowa State from the North, their best chance at a conference win looks to be at home against Colorado, where their chances are still fairly slim.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
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