Arizona State (7-5) vs. Hawaii (10-3)
Arizona State and then-coach Dirk Koetter entered the season with a problem most would love to have: choosing a starting QB from two of the best in the NCAA, senior Sam Keller or sophomore Rudy Carpenter. The short version of what transpired: Koetter chose Carpenter, the players chose Keller, Koetter caved and Keller transferred to Nebraska. While Carpenter's final line on the year (171/306, 2332 yards, 21/14 TD/INT) doesn't look too bad, some of Carpenter's performances show why there's now an "ex-" in front of "coach Dirk Koetter":
vs. Cal: 16/36, 177 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
vs. Oregon: 6/19, 33 yards, INT
vs. Oregon State: 9/27, 124 yards, 2 INT
vs. UCLA: 11/30, 149 yards, INT
Ew. Still, despite all this, the Sun Devils somehow managed a 7-5 season that, while not fluky according to the statistics, doesn't feel all that impressive.
Hawaii passes the ball. A lot. For over 432 yards a game, tops in the country. Only five teams even crack 300, and even Texas Tech throws for only 363. The Rainbow Warriors' attack is led by QB Colt Brennan, who probably deserves more respect than he's given. The system may allow him to put up those huge numbers, but an eyepopping completion percentage (72.1%) and TD/INT ratio (53/11) suggest that he is, in fact, quite legit. And he's only a junior, people!
The Arizona State pass defense isn't half bad, so Hawaii may have a bit of trouble. However, Hawaii faced a decisively better secondary in the first game of the year against Alabama, and Brennan still threw for 349, 2 TD, and a pick. Plus, there may be a bit of a chicken and the egg thing going: is Hawaii facing poor defenses, or are pass defenses rated lower just because they face Hawaii? The fact that Rudy Carpenter has a pretty good final line despite those four games above show that he's capable of getting it done, and the second-worst pass defense of any bowl team (Hawaii's only ahead of Kentucky) probably won't stop him from doing so. Should be a fun shootout, but, well, one of these teams is better equipped.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence (out of 5): 2
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