BOWLNANZA!: The New Orleans Bowl

Rice (7-5) vs. Troy (7-5)

Really?

Things looked to be the usual for Rice halfway through the year. Under first-year coach Todd Graham, the team had switched from an option attack to an offense with actual passes, and they were going through the expected growing pains. Rice was an unsurprising 1-5, with the high point of the year looking more and more like it would be losing by only 1 point to rival and C-USA favorite Houston. And then a funny thing happened: Rice won their last 6 games, and finished 7-5. How? Well, as both the scores (5 of those 6 wins were by 6 points or less) and the stats show, a little bit of improvement, and a little bit of luck. The ECU win, ironically the closest score-wise, was the only one the Owls outright dominated. The rest fell into one of four categories:

1) Close games where turnovers were even (UTEP)
2) Close games where the Owls won via turnovers (UCF)
3) Close games where the Owls somehow won DESPITE turnovers (UAB, SMU)
4) Letting Tulsa turn the ball over 4 times (Tulsa)

Rice should be happy to be here, since if they deservedly lost the category 3 games, they'd be 5-7, and could've easily lost the other three.

On the Troy side of things, well, they're a Sun Belt team. The offense was much-maligned last season, and was made over this year, led by JuCo QB Omar Haugabook. The results have been improved, if not great: The Trojans were able to break 400 yards against UL Monroe and Florida Atlantic, but were held pretty quiet against North Texas and UAB. The defense, which has produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora in recent years, is on an upswing: after allowing 421 yards to Arkansas State (who has a pretty good rushing attack), the Trojans held SBC favorite Middle Tennessee to only 203 yards, then similarly shut down Florida International.

An interesting game, because, hey, one of these teams has to win. Rice is overrated, but has done some things right, while Troy is still a Sun Belt team. Middle Tennessee might, in fact, be better than Rice, so I'll go with the Trojans.

My Pick: Troy
Confidence (out of 5): 1