New Mexico (6-6) vs. San Jose State (8-4)
The real UNM is closer to the one that lost to I-AA Portland State to lead off the year than the team that blew out San Diego State 41-14 to reach .500. In fact, the Aztecs greatly outplayed the Lobos, but gave the game away in the form of 4 turnovers. In fact, the Lobos only outgained their opponent in two of their wins (Utah and UTEP), so for New Mexico to become bowl-eligible was probably a best-case scenario. So, yeah, you're looking at the weakest bowl team of the 64, especially since the much more deserving Wyoming got passed over.
San Jose State has come from nowhere, and while they're probably not 8-4 good, their improvement is indeed legit. They convincingly beat some lower-tier teams, including San Diego State, Utah State, Idaho, and a complete shellacking of Louisiana Tech. So, yes, SJSU has separated themselves from the dregs of the WAC, but they haven't fared so well against better talent. They lost convincingly to Nevada and Boise, and got hammered by Hawaii worse than the 54-17 final shows. SJSU is at the very least a decent team, but exactly how good they are seems to be a grey area, even though, hey, they beat Stanford!
Two of the worse bowl teams go to battle here, although SJSU is definitely deserving of a bid out of the WAC. New Mexico probably didn't deserve to get invited, though part of me thinks the Lobos can pull it off; they've beaten some decent teams, while San Jose State's victories have mostly come against the dregs of the WAC. Still, UNM's probably close or below the talent levels of Stanford and Fresno State, two teams the Spartans beat, and I'm inclined to think that the more deserving bowl team can overcome the Lobos' possibly-existent homefield advantage.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence (out of 5): 1
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