BOWLNANZA!: The Las Vegas Bowl

#23 BYU (10-2) vs. Oregon (7-5)

BYU is legit. I half-expected that they'd project out to a 8-4, "pretty good but not deserving of their reputation type of team," but they've played around the same level as their 10-2 record, only getting outgained by Utah and TCU (and closely at that.) Most of the talk about them has centered around QB John Beck and the Cougars' high-powered offense, and deservedly so: outside of the Arizona game that led off the year, BYU has gained at least 400 yards every time out, with 653 yards against New Mexico being the exclamation point. For having a defense-oriented head coach in Bronco Mendenhall, however, the Cougars' D seems to have some question marks: while they held Tulsa to 303 yards, TCU, Utah, Boston College and New Mexico all broke the 400-yard mark against BYU, and even 3-9 San Diego State broke 350.

Oregon may look like a team on the slide, dropping three in a row to USC, Arizona, and Oregon State, but the stats aren't nearly as bad as the end results. Oregon outplayed USC statistically, even if was close, and the same holds for the Oregon State game. The Arizona game was a bit of a blowout, but the Ducks would've likely had a chance if not for a 6-turnover implosion that will (hopefully) not be duplicated anytime soon. The Oregon offense is almost as prolific as BYU's, going for 400 yards in 9 of their 12 games, and over 500 thrice. The defense is suspect, though, as the Ducks could hold few teams under 300 yards -- I-AA Portland State, inconsistent Arizona State, and UCLA and Washington with hurt quarterbacks.

This is an interesting game, as while Oregon is underrated, they're playing against a team worthy of their record (unlike, say, a Maryland or Ohio,) where the perceived upset would also be, in fact, an actual upset. The profile of both teams suggests a fun shootout, as neither has been able to stop the better offenses they've faced. I like Oregon's chances against BYU, however; Ducks OC Gary Crowton was the previous BYU head coach, and Mendenhall worked under Crowton as the DC, so Crowton should have some additional insight into the exploiting the Cougars D. I favor the Ducks, as while both teams have similar profiles, Oregon's resume has come against a stronger schedule, and I think the Ducks may have something to prove. Oregon can be turnover-prone, as the 6 against Arizona obviously shows, but I think as long as they can hold onto the ball, Oregon should prove to be the better team.

My Pick: Oregon
Confidence (out of 5): 2