Miami (6-6) vs. Nevada (8-4)
I've mentioned it in a few of the other previews, but I'll say it one more time: Miami was horribly disappointing this year, and got coach Larry Coker fired in the process. The Hurricanes had a string of unlucky losses, against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and like any other team that faced them, Maryland, but even an 8 or 9 win season may not have saved Coker. The Miami defense has actually been surprisingly good, #5 in the country in yardage, although who knows how much of that was playing in the ACC. As for the offense, well, it's been a two-man operation, and when one of those men is QB Kyle Wright (1655 yards, 8/7 TD/INT,) ehhhhhh.
Nevada runs a "pistol" offense, halfway between regular and a shotgun. Clever, huh? They're what you'd expect from a WAC team, good offense, mediocre defense, and about what you'd expect from that record, that is, pretty good. QB Jeff Rowe is one of the better mid-major signal-callers, but his final line (1715 yards, 16/7 TD/INT) is probably somewhat disappointing. Nevada's been about in line with expectations, and had at least 340 yards against 7 of the 8 WAC teams they played, but the Wolf Pack is coming off a 38-7 loss that probably wasn't even as close as that score.
On talent alone, Miami should win this, but that's been true of most of their games this season. Still, Miami has a lot of talent on defense, and the results have been there (even if the opponents may not have been,) and if Nevada can be stopped like that by Boise State, then Miami should have no problem shutting them down. By the same token though, Nevada might still get theirs, and Miami's offense is pretty crap. I really want to pick Miami, and if the lightbulb goes off this might be a blowout, but they burned me last year for picking them against LSU, and I don't think they'll rise to the occasion here either.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence (out of 5): 1
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