Kansas State (7-5) vs. #14 Rutgers (10-2)
Kansas State was possibly the worst team in I-A for about forever, until former head coach Bill Snyder amazingly built the team into a contender during the 1990s. Snyder retired after last season, and things under new HC Ron Prince did not start well, as the Wildcats almost lost to I-AA Illinois State, and would've had ISU not gone for two after their final touchdown. Still, the team clawed its way back to respectability, first on the usual weak non-conference schedule, then on lower-tier Big 12 teams like Iowa State and Colorado, and finally with a huge upset win over then-#4 Texas. Still, the Wildcats don't project well statistically, winding up in the 5-7/6-6 range. They should've lost that Illinois State game, and could've lost to Texas, Oklahoma State, or even Iowa State. They're far from an awful team, but they're somewhat lucky to be here.
Rutgers was ALSO possibly the worst team in I-A for about literally forever, as Rutgers played in the first-ever college football game. To show how awful the Scarlet Knights have been, they're still looking for their first-ever bowl win here. Greg Schiano is pulling a, well, Snyder-esque job of program-building here, and while Rutgers probably should've lost to South Florida and/or UConn, 8-4 would still be better than anyone expected in the preseason, let alone two or three years ago.
I worried for Rutgers here, since even though 8-4 is still a good record, they have a tendency to disappear in games, including the Cincinnati loss and that aforementioned UConn game. Still, Kansas State is an easily beatable team for a team like the Scarlet Knights, and coming off a season-ending loss to Kansas at that. Rutgers got kind of hosed by having such a great season and winding up here, but on the bright side, it should be time for that first-ever bowl win.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence (out of 5): 2
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