A Study: Underperformers and Overachievers

One of the big factors in deciding who overachieved and underachieved during the year and who will rebound/regress the next is yardage. Turnovers and special teams touchdowns may be nice, but they're somewhat random occurences; yardage should, to an extent, show who outplayed who. Accordingly, I've gone through every I-A game this year, tabulated the yardage, and figured out the win-loss records based purely on yardage.

A note: There were three games where yardage was even, with Notre Dame oddly being involved in two: USC/Notre Dame, Notre Dame/Purdue, and TCU/Baylor. I rewarded each team 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses for each "tie."

Another note: Oh, and I didn't include conference title games, since they obviously depend on standings that may or may not be accurate in this model.

So, my so called "pure" yardage standings:

ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson 10-2 (7-1)
2. Boston College 8-4 (5-3)
3. Florida State 7-5 (5-3)
4. NC State 6-6 (5-3)
5. Wake Forest 5-7 (2-6)
6. Maryland 1-11 (0-8)

ACC Coastal:
1. Miami 8-4 (5-3)
2. Virginia Tech 9-3 (5-3)
3. Georgia Tech 6-6 (4-4)
4. Virginia 5-7 (4-4)
5. North Carolina 5-7 (4-4)
6. Duke 2-10 (2-6)

Big East:
1. Louisville 10-2 (5-2)
2. West Virginia 10-2 (5-2)
3. South Florida 9-3 (5-2)
4. Cincinnati 7-5 (4-3)
5. Rutgers 8-4 (4-3)
6. Connecticut 6-6 (2-5)
7. Pittsburgh 6-6 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (1-6)

Big Ten:
1. Ohio State 12-0 (8-0)
2. Michigan 10-2 (7-1)
3. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
4. Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
5. Illinois 7-5 (4-4)
6. Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
7. Purdue 5.5-7.5 (3-5)
8. Northwestern 6-6 (3-5)
9. Indiana 4-8 (2-6)
10. Michigan State 5-7 (1-7)
11. Minnesota 3-9 (1-7)

Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska 7-5 (4-4)
2. Missouri 8-4 (4-4)
3. Kansas State 6-6 (4-4)
4. Kansas 6-6 (3-5)
5. Colorado 4-8 (3-5)
6. Iowa State 4-8 (1-7)

Big 12 South:
1. Texas A&M 11-1 (7-1)
2. Texas Tech 8-4 (6-2)
3. Oklahoma 8-4 (5-3)
4. Texas 8-4 (5-3)
5. Oklahoma State 7-5 (4-4)
6. Baylor 4.5-7.5 (2-6)

C-USA East:
1. Central Florida 7-5 (7-1)
2. East Carolina 8-4 (6-2)
3. Southern Miss 6-6 (4-4)
4. Marshall 3-9 (2-6)
5. UAB 3-9 (2-6)
6. Memphis 3-9 (1-7)

C-USA West:
1. Houston 9-3 (7-1)
2. Tulsa 9-3 (6-2)
3. UTEP 5-7 (4-4)
4. Tulane 5-7 (3-5)
5. Rice 4-8 (3-5)
6. SMU 6-6 (3-5)

MAC East:
1. Ohio 7-5 (6-2)
2. Kent State 7-5 (5-3)
3. Akron 5-7 (4-4)
4. Bowling Green 6-6 (4-4)
5. Buffalo 3-9 (2-6)
6. Miami of Ohio 3-9 (2-6)

MAC West:
1. Western Michigan 8-4 (6-2)
2. Toledo 7-5 (5-3)
3. Central Michigan 8-4 (5-3)
4. Northern Illinois 6-6 (4-4)
5. Eastern Michigan 3-9 (3-5)
6. Ball State 2-10 (2-6)

Mountain West:
1. Utah 8-4 (6-2)
2. TCU 9.5-2.5 (6-2)
3. BYU 10-2 (6-2)
4. Wyoming 9-3 (5-3)
5. Air Force 6-6 (4-4)
6. Colorado State 5-7 (3-5)
7. San Diego State 4-8 (2-6)
8. UNLV 3-9 (2-6)
9. New Mexico 4-8 (2-6)

Pac 10:
1. Oregon 10-2 (7-2)
2. USC 9.5-2.5 (7-2)
3. Cal 9-3 (7-2)
4. Washington State 8-4 (6-3)
5. Oregon State 7-6 (5-4)
6. UCLA 7-5 (5-4)
7. Arizona State 7-5 (4-5)
8. Arizona 3-9 (2-7)
9. Stanford 1-11 (1-8)
10. Washington 2-10 (1-8)

SEC East:
1. Georgia 8-4 (5-3)
2. South Carolina 8-4 (5-3)
3. Vanderbilt 7-5 (4-4)
4. Florida 8-4 (4-4)
5. Tennessee 7-5 (3-5)
6. Kentucky 3-9 (2-6)

SEC West:
1. LSU 11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama 10-2 (6-2)
3. Arkansas 8-4 (5-3)
4. Auburn 7-5 (3-5)
5. Mississippi State 4-8 (2-6)
6. Mississippi 3-9 (2-6)

Sun Belt:
1. Troy 6-6 (5-2)
2. Florida Atlantic 5-7 (4-3)
3. Middle Tennessee State 6-6 (4-3)
4. Arkansas State 6-6 (4-3)
5. Louisiana-Monroe 7-5 (4-3)
6. Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 (3-4)
7. Florida International 3-9 (2-5)
8. North Texas 3-9 (2-5)

WAC:
1. Hawaii 11-2 (7-1)
2. Boise State 9-3 (6-2)
3. Nevada 9-3 (6-2)
4. New Mexico State 9-3 (5-3)
5. San Jose State 7-5 (4-4)
6. Idaho 5-7 (4-4)
7. Fresno State 5-7 (3-5)
8. Louisiana Tech 3-10 (1-7)
9. Utah State 0-12 (0-8)

Independents:
1. Notre Dame 8-4
2. Navy 8-4
3. Army 1-11
4. Temple 0-12

Of course, this has some flaws. After all, within a certain range, the game's essentially up for grabs -- why should a team get a "win" just because they had the opportunity to gain, say, 3 more yards? Accordingly, I've used 50 yards as a benchmark -- if the difference in yardage was 50 yards or less, I gave each team a "swing win (SW)" or a "swing loss (SL)," and awarded each team 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses. Let me use Toledo as example of how I adjusted the records:

Toledo (Pure): 7-5 (5 SW, 2 SL)

Subtracting all the swing games, Toledo's record is 2-3. With 7 swing games, that should add 3.5 in each column, bringing their "swing" record to 5.5-6.5.

Now, obviously the system still isn't perfect -- Michigan vs. Central Michigan is a perfect example. Michigan forced 3 turnovers, so while Michigan would likely outgain the Chippewas, CMU had much more of an opportunity to gain yardage. The end result: Central Michigan outgained Michigan 397-260, and was therefore the only team besides Ohio State to "beat" Michigan under this system. But still, this way of looking at it generally shows who is overrated and who could surprise everyone by regressing to the mean next year.

Without further ado, 2006's TOP FIVE OVERACHIEVERS:

t-5. ARIZONA (Actual Record: 6-6, Projected Record: 3-9, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Stanford, Stephen F. Austin
Swing Wins: Oregon
Swing Losses: UCLA
Losses: Arizona State, BYU, Cal, LSU, Oregon State, USC, Washington, Washington State

The BYU "loss" could be kind of a wash, as Arizona was actually outgained by 5*1* yards. So the Wildcats winning that one, which they did, wasn't too far off. Them beating Wazzou in real life was just weird, however, as the Cougars outgained them by 60 yards and forced 2 more turnovers. Plus 78 of Arizona's 301 yards against Wazzou came on a TD pass in the first quarter. Arizona upsetting Cal was all due to Nate Longshore -- he threw 3 picks, and if one of those doesn't happen, Arizona would have probably lost as the stats show they should've.

t-5. BOISE STATE (Actual Record: 12-0, Projected Record: 9-3, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, Oregon State, Sacramento State, San Jose State, Utah, Utah State
Swing Wins: Hawaii
Swing Losses: Wyoming
Losses: Idaho, New Mexico State

The Idaho game is like Arizona-BYU in that the disparity was 51 yards, just outside of the "swing" range. In contrast, Boise was in fact somewhat lucky in that Wyoming game, as a Broncos INT TD made the difference in the score. The NMSU pass attack somewhat breaks the system with their gobs of yardage -- Boise still gained 479 yards, though, so it's not like the Broncos' real-life win was all that inexplicable.

t-5. OHIO (Actual Record: 9-3, Projected Record: 6-6, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio
Swing Wins: Akron, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Tennessee-Martin
Swing Losses: Bowling Green, Western Michigan
Losses: Illinois, Missouri, Rutgers

Ohio beating Illinois in real life is the big outlier, mostly due to 5 Illini turnovers. Other than that, this is a typical lucky team - a bunch of close games, and they won all but Bowling Green.

4. RICE (Actual Record: 7-5, Projected Record: 3.5-8.5, Overachievement: 3.5 wins)
Wins: Army, East Carolina, UTEP
Swing Wins: SMU
Losses: Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Texas, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCLA

The big lucky wins were UCF, Tulsa, and UAB. The UCF game was basically even, Central Florida just handed it over with two turnovers. The UAB game was the outright luckiest win, since it was also pretty even statistically, but Rice actually turned the ball over more than the Blazers. Tulsa blew Rice out of the water, but turned it over 4 times, and still lost by only 3.

3. AUBURN (Actual Record: 10-2, Projected Record: 6-6, Overachievement: 4 wins)
Wins: Arkansas State, Buffalo, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Washington State
Swing Wins: Florida, Tulane
Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina

Auburn only had two drives of any note against LSU, but one of them was for a touchdown, which was enough to win the game. LSU was more consistent over the game and outgained Auburn by over 100 yards, but Auburn got lucky and held on. The SC game was a bit closer, but without a red zone INT, the Gamecocks would've tied it, and then who knows. Beating Alabama was all due to Crimson Tide turnovers.

2. WAKE FOREST (Actual Record: 10-2, Projected Record: 5-7, Overachievement: 5 wins)
Wins: Florida State, Liberty, Maryland, Mississippi, Syracuse
Losses: Boston College, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

They beat Duke on a blocked field goal. I was at the UConn game, and the Huskies completely outplayed them outside of 2 DJ Hernandez interceptions (shock.), one of which was run back for a TD. They beat NC State on a SAFETY. The win over UNC was mostly turnovers, and BC had some at some inopportune times, too. Wake should've won maybe 1, 2, hell, maybe even 3 of those. But all five? Quite lucky.

1. MARYLAND (Actual Record: 8-4, Projected Record: 2.5-9.5, Overachivement: 5.5 wins)
Wins: William & Mary
Swing Losses: Boston College, Florida International, NC State
Losses: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Middle Tennessee State, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia

The FIU and Virginia games were pretty close, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt there. MTSU, NC State, and Miami were all the same thing: Maryland got outplayed, not by much, but enough, and turnovers doomed the Blue Raiders/Wolfpack/'Canes. The Clemson game is a weird one: Maryland was the only team to turn the ball over, and got outgained by 80+ yards, but still managed to win it. FSU kicked the shit out of the Terps statistically in their game; however, Maryland apparently got some really great punt returns, and were able to score on 20-30 yard drives. Again, it's expected that Maryland could win some of those and go, say, 5-7, but for a team that only outgained one opponent all year to go 8-4? That's overachieving.

And on the other side of the coin, 2006's TOP FIVE UNDERPERFORMERS:

t-4. LOUISIANA-MONROE (Actual Record: 4-8, Projected Record: 7-5, Underachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Alcorn State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Kansas, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas
Swing Wins: Kentucky
Swing Losses: Troy
Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State

Might as well start with the Kansas loss, since that's the weird one. Warhawks QB Kinsmon Lancaster actually outgained the entire Kansas team, Kansas turned it over 4 times to ULM's one, and Kansas still managed to eke it out. The FAU and Kentucky games were essentially the same script: ULM performs a bit better in a shootout, turnovers doom them.

t-4. OREGON (Actual Record: 7-5, Projected Record: 10-2, Underachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Portland State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
Swing Wins: Fresno State
Swing Losses: Arizona
Losses: Cal

The USC game was another one of those 51-yard specials, so we'll just call it even. Even though Arizona outgained Oregon, the Ducks loss was mostly due to them turning it over 6 times. Oregon had some inopportune turnovers against Wazzou, although that plagued both teams. I'd argue Oregon was more consistent, but the Cougars were able to turn their big drives into more points. Oregon State game was also about even; the Beavers fumbled it over, but making one of Oregon's two missed field goals would've won it for the Ducks.

3. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Actual Record: 0-12, Projected Record: 4-8, Underachievement: 4 wins)
Wins: Middle Tennessee State, North Texas
Swing Wins: Maryland
Swing Losses: Alabama, Bowling Green, South Florida
Losses: Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami, Troy

The South Florida, Maryland, and Troy games (only a 53 yard disparity) were pretty much close. As was the UNT game, I suppose, but that all came down to whoever could make a FG before the 7th overtime. The Alabama game was pretty handily won by the Crimson Tide; they ran back TDs on special teams and on defense, still outgained FIU by 50, and pretty much just shut the Golden Panthers down -- this was a case of Bama's low yardage being due to a lack of chances rather than a lack of success. MTSU seemed pretty lucky to beat FIU, being outgained by 70 yards and turning the ball over, but neither team really did much and the Blue Raiders eked out the win 7-6. FIU probably should've won the BGSU game, however -- FIU won the yardage battle close, but turned it over 4 times to Bowling Green's 2. FIU had a bunch of close games that could've gone either way, but few losses that you could say they deserved to win. It still would've been a bad year, they just probably didn't deserve to go winless.

2. NEW MEXICO STATE (Actual Record: 4-8, Projected Record: 8.5-3.5, Underachievement: 4.5 wins)
Wins: Boise State, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico, San Jose State, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas Southern, Utah State
Swing Wins: UTEP
Losses: Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada

NMSU only lost to New Mexico by 6, but only after turning it over five times. I'd say that's a fluke loss. Same story pretty much with the Fresno game, with the Aggies losing by 5 after 4 turnovers. NMSU and UTEP were pretty much exactly even, while the SJSU and Boise games both reached shootout levels; outgaining a team by 80 yards is a lot less impressive when it's, say, 556-479.

1. ILLINOIS (Actual Record: 2-10, Projected Record: 7-5, Underachievement: 5 wins)
Wins: Eastern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio, Penn State
Swing Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Syracuse
Swing Losses: Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Losses: Northwestern, Rutgers

The Indiana loss was about as even as two teams can be. The Wisconsin and Ohio State losses weren't far behind, with turnovers being even, the Illini being barely outgained (32 by Wisconsin, 21 by Ohio State), and the opponent winning by a touchdown or less. Those three were about even, but the Syracuse loss was slightly more undeserving. The Illini outgained the Orange by 48, but Illinois had one more turnover than Syracuse, who returned the lone Illini fumble for a TD. The rest of the games can all be chalked up to an insane amount of turnovers:

vs. Iowa: Iowa outgains Illinois 337-291, Illinois: 4 turnovers, Iowa: 1 turnover
vs. Ohio: Illinois outgains Ohio 441-264, Illinois: 5 turnovers, Ohio: 1 turnover
vs. Penn State: Illinois outgains Penn State 403-211, Illinois: 4 turnovers, Penn State: 2 turnovers
vs. Purdue: Illinois outgains Purdue 446-445, Illinois: 5 turnovers, Purdue: 2 turnovers

Illinois doesn't turn the ball over and wins those 4 games, and they're 6-6. Combined with those 4 even games above, that should add up to a record anywhere from, say, 7-5 to 9-3. So, I think that probably clinches it -- the biggest underperformer this year, and the team that's probably going to "come out of nowhere" and regress to the mean next season -- the Illinois Fighting Illini.

And for the record, the "swing" conference standings:

ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson 10-2 (7-1)
2. Florida State 7.5-4.5 (5-3)
3. Boston College 6.5-5.5 (4-4)
4. NC State 5-7 (4-4)
5. Wake Forest 5-7 (2-6)
6. Maryland 2.5-9.5 (1-7)

ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2)
2. Miami 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
3. Georgia Tech 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
4. Virginia 5.5-6.5 (4.5-3.5)
5. North Carolina 4-8 (3.5-4.5)
6. Duke 2-10 (1.5-6.5)

Big East:
1. Louisville 10-2 (5.5-1.5)
2. West Virginia 10-2 (5-2)
3. Cincinnati 7.5-4.5 (4.5-2.5)
4. South Florida 8-4 (4.5-2.5)
5. Rutgers 8-4 (3.5-3.5)
6. Connecticut 6.5-5.5 (2.5-5.5)
7. Pittsburgh 6-6 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (0.5-6.5)

Big Ten:
1. Ohio State 10-2 (7-1)
2. Michigan 9.5-2.5 (6.5-1.5)
3. Wisconsin 10-2 (6.5-1.5)
4. Illinois 7-5 (4.5-3.5)
5. Penn State 7-5 (3.5-4.5)
6. Indiana 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
7. Iowa 6-6 (3-5)
8. Purdue 5.5-7.5 (3-5)
9. Northwestern 5.5-6.5 (2.5-5.5)
10. Michigan State 5.5-6.5 (2-6)
11. Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)

Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska 7.5-4.5 (4.5-3.5)
2. Missouri 8.5-3.5 (4.5-3.5)
3. Colorado 4.5-7.5 (4-4)
4. Kansas State 5-7 (3-5)
5. Kansas 6-6 (3-5)
6. Iowa State 4-8 (1-7)

Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma 9.5-2.5 (6.5-1.5)
2. Texas A&M 9.5-2.5 (6-2)
3. Texas Tech 8-4 (5-3)
4. Texas 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
5. Oklahoma State 7.5-4.5 (4-4)
6. Baylor 3.5-8.5 (2-6)

C-USA East:
1. Central Florida 6.5-5.5 (6-2)
2. East Carolina 7-5 (4.5-3.5)
3. Southern Miss 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
4. Marshall 4-8 (3-5)
5. Memphis 4-8 (2.5-5.5)
6. UAB 3-9 (2-6)

C-USA West:
1. Houston 9.5-2.5 (7.5-0.5)
2. Tulsa 9-3 (6-2)
3. UTEP 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
4. Tulane 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
5. SMU 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
6. Rice 3.5-8.5 (2.5-5.5)

MAC East:
1. Ohio 6-6 (5.5-2.5)
2. Kent State 7.5-4.5 (5.5-2.5)
3. Akron 6-6 (4.5-3.5)
4. Bowling Green 6.5-5.5 (4-4)
5. Miami of Ohio 4.5-7.5 (3-5)
6. Buffalo 3-9 (2-6)

MAC West:
1. Western Michigan 7.5-4.5 (5.5-2.5)
2. Northern Illinois 7-5 (5-3)
3. Toledo 5.5-6.5 (4-4)
4. Central Michigan 7.5-4.5 (4-4)
5. Ball State 3.5-8.5 (3-5)
6. Eastern Michigan 2-10 (2-6)

Mountain West:
1. BYU 11-1 (7-1)
2. TCU 9-3 (6-2)
3. Wyoming 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
4. Utah 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
5. Air Force 6-6 (3.5-4.5)
6. Colorado State 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
7. New Mexico 4.5-7.5 (3-5)
8. UNLV 4-8 (2.5-5.5)
9. San Diego State 3-9 (1.5-6.5)

Pac 10:
1. Oregon 10-2 (7.5-1.5)
2. USC 9.5-2.5 (7-2)
3. Cal 7.5-4.5 (5.5-3.5)
4. Washington State 7.5-4.5 (5.5-3.5)
5. Arizona State 8-4 (5-4)
6. Oregon State 6.5-6.5 (4.5-4.5)
7. UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
8. Washington 4.5-7.5 (3-6)
9. Arizona 3-9 (2-7)
10. Stanford 1.5-10.5 (1-8)

SEC East:
1. Florida 9.5-2.5 (5.5-2.5)
2. Georgia 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
3. South Carolina 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
4. Kentucky 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
5. Tennessee 6.5-5.5 (3-5)
6. Vanderbilt 6-6 (3-5)

SEC West:
1. LSU 10.5-1.5 (6.5-1.5)
2. Arkansas 8.5-3.5 (5.5-2.5)
3. Alabama 8-4 (5-3)
4. Mississippi State 5.5-6.5 (3.5-4.5)
5. Auburn 6-6 (2.5-5.5)
6. Mississippi 2.5-9.5 (1-7)

Sun Belt:
1. Arkansas State 7-5 (5-2)
2. Troy 5.5-6.5 (4.5-2.5)
3. Louisiana-Monroe 7-5 (4.5-2.5)
4. Middle Tennessee State 5.5-6.5 (3.5-3.5)
5. Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 (3.5-3.5)
6. Florida Atlantic 4-8 (3-4)
7. Florida International 4-8 (2-5)
8. North Texas 3.5-8.5 (2-5)

WAC:
1. Hawaii 12-1 (7.5-0.5)
2. Boise State 9-3 (5.5-2.5)
3. Nevada 8-4 (5.5-2.5)
4. New Mexico State 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
5. Fresno State 5.5-6.5 (4-4)
6. San Jose State 6-6 (3.5-4.5)
7. Idaho 4-8 (3.5-4.5)
8. Louisiana Tech 2.5-10.5 (1-7)
9. Utah State 0.5-11.5 (0.5-7.5)

Independents:
1. Notre Dame 8.5-3.5
2. Navy 7-5
3. Army 3-9
4. Temple 0-12