The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE SUN BELT

THE CONSENSUS:

1. Troy (#79 overall - AT: #82, LN: #81, SN: #61, ST: #91)
2. Middle Tennessee State (#102 overall - AT: #105, LN: #100, SN: #89, ST: #102)
3. Arkansas State (#105 overall - AT: #104, LN: #109, SN: #83, ST: #109)
4. Louisiana-Monroe (#106 overall - AT: #110, LN: #96, SN: #111, ST: #98)
5. Florida Atlantic (#107 overall - AT: #109, LN: #108, SN: #101, ST: #99)
6. Louisiana-Lafayette (#108 overall - AT: #112, LN: #103, SN: #94, ST: #112)
7. North Texas (#112 overall - AT: #114, LN: #112, SN: #113, ST: #118)
8. Florida International (#119 overall - AT: #119, LN: #119, SN: #119, ST: #119)

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THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:

1. Troy

This was a middle of the road team last year in terms of statistics, but there's just too much talent here to not have the Trojans at #1. Senior QB Omar Hougabook was a revelation after transferring in from junior college, throwing for 2401 and a 21/17 TD/INT ratio on 61.3% passing. He should improve, at the very least in that TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is the biggest question mark, returning only one starter, but heavy on JuCo talent; still, talented senior RB Kenny Cattouse may rush for 1000 either way. On defense, the Trojans return eight starters, and most of the open spots are filled by the usual highly talented transfers: DTs Chris Bradwell (Florida State) and Dion Gales (Ole Miss), as well as SS Trevor Ford (Florida State). The defense as a whole is both more experienced and more talented, and is the elite of the Sun Belt. The questions on offense, especially the line, means this team is far from invincible in the conference, but that defense alone should guarantee bowl-eligibility.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins

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2. Louisiana-Monroe

The Warhawks had the best offense in the Sun Belt last year, and return all 11 starters there - uh-oh. QB Kinsmon Lancaster has eternally endeared himself to me by outgaining Kansas (yes, the entire team) all by his lonesome in last year's 19-21 loss. Over the season, his decision-making greatly improved, so he should be a much better quarterback, and have a much better TD/INT ratio than last year's 7/14. RB Calvin Dawson had 1210 yards and 11 TD last year, and is one of the conference's best backs; he'll be running behind a line that not only returns all five starters, but 2005 starting center Brent Gregston. Also back is backup tackle Joseph Joseph, whose middle name may or may not be Joseph. On defense, the front seven returns five starters and should be a strength, but the secondary is a question mark; starter Greg James returns and injuries last year leave some starting experience this year, but all in all, the talent level is fairly mediocre. Still, most of last year's top QBs in the conference have graduated, so the Warhawks get fairly lucky. ULM gets Troy on the road, but the Warhawks offense should make them a favorite in every other Sun Belt game, as well as one of the favorites to take home the conference title.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins

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3. Arkansas State

The Indians projected out as the best team in the Sun Belt, but had some bad luck and only finished 4-3 in the conference. Sophomore QB Corey Leonard had a mediocre year, but completed less than 50% of his passes; he should improve that and see some better results, especially since ASU returns pretty much every receiving of note. All-Sun Belt RB Reggie Arnold will probably be the star of the offense either way, though, since he ran for 1076 yards and 4 TD as a freshman, despite a nagging ankle injury for half the year. On defense, the front seven is pretty much a question mark, despite the presence of star LB Koby McKinnon. Still, the defense should be improved thanks to what's probably the conference's best secondary, returning four starters and the excellent safety duo of FS Khayyam Burns and two-time all-Sun Belt SS Tyrell Johnson. The Indians should be an improved team, but since they don't have a I-AA gimme like most of the conference, the Sun Belt's parity means a repeat of last year's 6-6 finish should be a best-case scenario.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins

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4. Florida Atlantic

FAU benefits from having a very veteran squad, returning 18 starters, the most in the Sun Belt. Sophomore QB Rusty Smith should improve over last year's 6/8 TD/INT ratio, and the running back corps, with returning starter Charles Pierre, 2005 star DiIvory Edgecomb, and top frosh Xavier Stinson, has both talent and depth. They'll be behind a veteran offensive line. The defensive line should be a strength, especially down the middle, as DT Josh Pinnick was all-Sun Belt last year, and fellow DT Jervonte Jackson earned second-team honors. Despite having the one lost starter, the secondary should also improve, since the team returns 2005 starting FS Greg Joseph at the open cornerback slot. FAU has a pretty unwinnable OOC schedule, but the Owls luckily get both Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe at home; FAU could be a surprise contender for the conference title, and gain bowl-eligibility purely on in-conference wins.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins

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5. Middle Tennessee State

The offense scored about a touchdown per game more than they should've, so that, combined with only 6 starters returning on offense, suggests a serious regression. Still, the cupboard isn't completely bare; although new QB Joe Craddock was pretty awful in limited action, pretty much every top receiver returns from a veteran unit. The running game also shouldn't see much of a dropoff, as senior DeMarco McNair has a comparable talent level to departed starter Eugene Gross. The offensive line should be solid, but is more of a question mark than the other units - only two starters return, including stud left tackle Franklin Dunbar, but there's some starting experience elsewhere on the depth chart. The defense has a gaping hole at the linebacking corps, but should be fine everywhere else. All four starters return along the line, and while only two starters in the secondary return, they're two great ones: top CB Bradley Robinson and free safety Damon Nickson, who was all-Sun Belt last year as both a safety and a return man. Bowl eligibility isn't out of the question, but this should be a down year for the Blue Raiders.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins

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6. Louisiana-Lafayette

Junior Michael Desormeaux takes over at QB; departed four-year starter Jerry Babb had a disappointing final season, so Desormeaux should at least match that stat-line. However, with a strong offensive line, All-Sun Belt RB Tyrell Fenroy should once again be the best player on the offense; Fenroy ran for 1197 yards and 10 TD as a sophomore last year. The defense should at least stay somewhat steady. While linebacker has the least returning starters, 2005 starter Mark Risher returns there, leaving the defensive line as the hardest hit unit. The secondary also suffers some losses, but all in all, there's enough starting experience throughout the defense that the dropoff shouldn't be all that major. Still, while the Ragin' Cajuns aren't hit as hard by graduation as their 10 departed starters would suggest, this is still a team generally down a bit from last year. As with any Sun Belt team, there's enough parity where ULL may have a solid season, but matching last year's 6-6 record should be considered a success.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins

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7. North Texas

Longtime head coach Darrell Dickey is gone, and has been replaced by Todd Dodge, who used a high-powered pass offense to win a number of Texas State titles at Southlake Carroll high school. While the transition to the new offense will likely prevent any huge gains, there's enough talent for the offense to improve. QB Daniel Meager should improve upon last year's, pardon the horrible pun, meager returns at the position, especially in a more pass-based scheme. Meanwhile, senior RB Jamario Thomas, who led the nation in rushing oh so long ago as a freshman, should hopefully outproduce last year's running game, which was the Mean Green's worst in a decade. Still, his efforts may be thwarted by a shaky offensive line, that while it returns some upperclassmen, is fairly low on experience and is, again, learning a new system. The defense was actually pretty decent, if a little unlucky, last year, and should be pretty excellent by Sun Belt standards, as ten starters return. North Texas's strength has typically been its defense, and this year is no exception. While the D should keep UNT in games, with the change in schemes, it's doubtful the Mean Green will actually be able to win too many. There's always a chance a new offense could take immediately and benefit from some luck, like Rice last year, but that's a very risky bet.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins

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8. Florida International

FIU actually had an excellent defense last year, leading the NCAA in tackles for loss, but they also may have led the NCAA in bad luck, as they gave up about 8 or 9 points more than their yardage would indicate. Unfortunately, that defense has been gutted of most of its best players, and new coach Mario Cristobal is installing new schemes. A starting QB has yet to be announced, but the winner of the derby should be able to outproduce the departed Josh Padrick, who had a decent completion percentage but an awful 5/14 TD/INT ratio. The running game should be a strength though, despite the change in offensive line schemes, as all five starters on the line return to pave the way for Deadspin Hall of Famer A'Mod Ned and Julian Reams. On defense, the secondary should at least be decent, as three starters return. But the front seven was absolutely decimated; OLB James Black is gone, all-Sun Belt OLB Alexander Bostic is gone, all-Sun Belt MLB Keyonvis Bouie is gone, and perhaps most of all, tackle-for-loss machine DE Antwan Barnes is gone. There's enough talent there to be competitive in most Sun Belt games, but while FIU may actually win a game this year, that may wind up being the best news.

THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins